The Chinese stock market shows compelling signs after announcing that Asia’s largest economy is “fully confident” of achieving its full-year growth target. After reaching the highest levels in over two years at the open, the Heng Seng index closed 9.40% lower in the trading session of October 8. The downward trend during the last trading session recorded the heaviest fall for Heng Seng since 2008. The week-long bull rally was backed by stimulus leading to positive economic sentiment regarding the Chinese full-year growth target, however, the market turned red after officials failed to persuade confidence in economic plans intended to revive the economy.
During the last week of September, the Chinese government unveiled the country’s most comprehensive economic rescue effort since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, said that commercial banks will soon be advised to lower the interest rate of existing mortgages by nearly 0.5 percentage points on average. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the rate on 300 billion yuan worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to 2% from 2.30%. The rate cuts are part of the policy framework to effectively influence market borrowing costs and align with global economic activities.
On October 8, Reuters reported that Economic Planner Chairman, Zheng Shanjie pointed out that China is ‘fully confident’ of achieving economic targets for 2024 and would propose 200 billion yuan for investment projects during the next year’s budget plan. The IMF’s revised expected economic growth for China is now 5% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025.
What are Most Analysts Saying About China’s Economic Plan?
Billionaires such as David Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, have expressed bullish sentiment on China, while most analysts are cautious about the potential risks China holds. John Rutledge, Safanad’s Chief Investment Strategist, said that China is trying to reach its 5% growth target but they are not going to make it. Rutledge highlighted some serious issues China is currently facing, especially the real estate crisis. Rutledge further added that pay offers are going down and home prices are down by 5%, the biggest decline since 2015. Chinese President Xi Jinping will continue teasing the investors as they invest their capital and then let them drive away and that’s what they are doing right now, added Rutledge. The Chinese stock market is currently experiencing a similar reaction and that’s what happened with the Heng Seng index on October 8.
China has reduced the ??down payment ratio for second homes from 25% to 15% as the first home. Pan Gongsheng said the policy is expected to benefit 50 million households and more than 150 million people, leading to a reduction of the nation’s total interest bill by over 150 billion yuan annually. However, analysts are stating that these are tiny measures of a bigger problem that Chinese real estate is facing.
On September 25, VOA reported that a real estate analyst in Taipei told the media outlet that the policy may not help restore confidence for Chinese home-buyers. China’s bigger problem is its deteriorating birth rate. The analyst said that young people who will inherit a house from elders will not invest in the housing market, due to a sluggish economy and not willing to take such a risk. In addition, Francis Lun, CEO of Geo Securities in Hong Kong, pointed out the policies are ‘too late and too few’ but are better than nothing.
Whereas, billionaire David Tepper is excited to make investments in Chinese stocks. In an interview on CNBC on September 26, Tepper stated that he is increasing his exposure to Chinese stocks, considering the stimulus as China plans to float $142 billion of capital into top state-owned banks. Tepper’s take on the new policy to boost the economy is a signal to invest in Chinese markets. As a result, he is “buying everything” related to China.
China’s struggling economy and the government’s effort to stimulate its property market is a move toward balancing its economy. The exposure of investors such as David Tepper to Chinese stocks and ETFs reflects investors’ confidence in a risky market with growth potential. With that in context, let’s take a look at the 8 most promising Chinese stocks according to hedge funds.
Our Methodology
For this article, to compile our list of the most promising Chinese stocks according to hedge funds, we used the Finviz stock screener and shortlisted the top 20 Chinese stocks with the highest market capitalization. From this dataset, we selected the top 8 stocks most favoured by hedge funds and ranked them in ascending order based on the number of hedge funds holding stakes in these firms as of Q2 2024.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
JD.com, Inc. (JD): A Top Contender Among the Most Promising Chinese Stocks
A wide and imposing view of a supply chain distribution center, illustrating the company's technology capabilities.
JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) is a top Chinese e-commerce company, specializing in retailing consumer electronics, apparel, and household products. The company also operates other segments including, logistics, marketing services, and property classifieds, as well as other innovative technology initiatives.
JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) is expanding its third-party merchant platform with significant investments and aims to achieve a more optimized product mix that will attract stronger revenue growth and increase profit margins. These developments show that JD.com is positioning itself for long-term success and competitiveness in the e-commerce market, underlining why JD is one of the most promising Chinese stocks.
The Chinese firm is utilizing cutting-edge technologies such as drones and AI to improve its logistics and supply chain capabilities. Ariel Investments stated the following regarding JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“We initiated a position in China-based technology-driven E-commerce company, JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD). The brand has long been known across the region as a superior online shopping channel due to its unique first-party model and unparalleled fulfilment service underpinned by JD Logistics. Yet, a challenging macro environment drove shares lower as shoppers began seeking bargains. In response, the company made significant investments in elevating its third-party merchant platform to enhance its variety of product offerings and price competitiveness for consumers. We believe these actions will yield an improved product mix, stronger top-line growth, and margin expansion on a go-forward basis.”
JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) has demonstrated exceptional financial growth, with a 5-year net income compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.36%. During Q2 2024, the company exceeded earnings estimates by $0.47 per share, reporting an EPS of $1.14. The revenue was reported around $40.66 billion and surpassed estimates by $435.97 million.
JD.com is trading 10.75 times its forward-year earnings, which represents a 37% discount to the sector median of 17.14. The company’s earnings are expected to grow by more than 27% this year. This low forward P/E and anticipated increase in EPS shows JD is a cheap stock.
Overall, JD ranks 3rd on our list of most promising Chinese stocks according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of JD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than JD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
