Lucy Harley-McKeown
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FTSE 100 LIVE: Markets mixed and oil prices jump as Middle East conflict continues
How major markets are performing on Monday
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The FTSE 100 and European markets were mixed up on Monday, and oil prices continued higher, as ceremonies marked the anniversary of the Hamas attack on the Nova music festival and Israel's invasion continues on the ground in Lebanon. Media reports say troops have been sent for "localised" operations in Lebanon's south.
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was 0.3% higher by noon, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) fell 0.3% and the CAC 40 (^FCHI) in Paris rose 0.1%.
The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was just below the flat line.
The FTSE 100 was lifted by oil producing companies such as Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L), whose share prices were buoyed by higher oil costs.
Oil is up due to concerns over potential attacks on infrastructure as conflict rages on. Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 2.1% while crude (CL=F) jumped 2.4% in the session.
Moves also come as new data from Halifax showed year-on-year, house prices have surged by 4.7%, marking the strongest growth rate since November 2022.
The typical property price stands at £293,399, slightly up from £292,540 in August, and represents the highest level since June 2022. This left the average price only a little short of the record high of £293,507 set in June 2022. Refreshed demand reflects gradually decreasing interest rates set by the Bank of England.
"While rates are improving, they remain significantly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, making the cost of borrowing still out of reach for many, especially for first-time buyers," said Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter.
Live10 updates
How stocks are faring at the opening bell
Stocks are falling in early trade in the US as traders weigh last week's jobs report and the upcoming consumer inflation dater.
Sterling's rally loses steam
Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes:
The pound’s rally against the dollar appeared to be running out of steam on Monday as sterling was again weaker against the greenback in early trading.
The pound was 0.1% lower against the dollar at the time of writing, trading at $1.3107.
Traders are increasingly anticipating a quicker pace of monetary easing from the Bank of England, dampening the appeal of the pound, which has been the top-performing currency among the Group of Ten nations in 2024.
This shift in sentiment follows recent remarks by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who indicated that the central bank could pursue a “more aggressive” and “activist” approach to interest rate cuts. These comments sent shockwaves through the market, resulting in the pound’s sharpest weekly decline since February 2023.
Nick Andrews, senior FX strategist at HSBC, described Bailey’s statements as both “deliberate” and “meaningful,” suggesting they could signal a pivotal moment for the currency.
In recent months, investors have favoured the pound, bolstered by expectations that the Bank of England would ease rates more gradually than other central banks, thus preserving the currency’s relatively high yield. Following a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve last month, the pound surged to $1.3434, its highest level since February 2022.
However, current market indicators suggest a reversal may be underway. Options contracts reveal that traders are now paying a premium to hedge against a decline in the pound, with sentiment indicators like risk reversals sinking to two-month lows.
However, sterling managed to bounce back against the euro (GBPEUR=X) in early trading, rising 0.1% to €1.1953.
Commodities update: Gold dips, oil climbs
Gold prices dipped on Monday as traders adjusted their bets for a smaller US rate cut in November following stronger-than-expected jobs data, while awaiting further inflation insights and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Oil prices continue to climb as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s missile barrage last week amid ongoing fears about a region-wide war in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $78.19 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude climbed 0.7% to $74.93 per barrel during early European trading.
House price rises: 'More of the same' to come
And some analysis — here's Anthony Codling, managing director in equity research at RBC Capital Markets', take:
House prices rose for the third month in a row in September. Housing market conditions have steadily improved over the summer and early autumn as wages continue to rise and mortgage rates start to fall. However, the Halifax expects house price growth to remain modest for the rest of the year and in 2025. We are more upbeat than the Halifax, house price growth has a habit of exceeding expectations and is frequently more robust than the experts' forecasts, and we expect more of the same in the coming months.
House prices: Yahoo Finance's take
Here's Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves' take on the latest Halifax HPI data: UK house prices rise for third straight month amid falling mortgage rates
How US stocks are faring in premarket
Stocks look set to open slightly lower later on.
Overnight in Asia
Friday's blockbuster US jobs report also lifted Asian markets on Monday. Japan's Nikkei (^N225) rose 1.8% in the session, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) in Hong Kong rose 1.7%.
Japanese stocks were higher wile the yen lost steam. Currency traders are fretting over potential central bank moves.
Mainland Chinese stocks are set to reopen following a week-long holiday tomorrow.
US close on Friday
Here's how US markets closed the week, courtesy of our US colleagues:
Stocks soared on Friday as investors welcomed a key monthly jobs report that showed hiring remains robust in the US economy. The Middle East crisis and a return to work at US ports also stayed in high focus.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained more than 300 points, or 0.8%, eking out a new record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved 1.2% higher.
The September jobs report massively overshot expectations, as the US economy added 254,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Altogether, the report showed the labor market remains robust, even amid signs it has cooled. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer has more details on the report here.
The jobs data swung forecasts toward a smaller interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. Nearly 99% of bets are on a 25 basis point cut, as opposed to a 50 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Good morning!
Hello from London. Another day... another week! We've got lots on the slate this week. Halifax's house price index already dropped this morning and later in the week we have GDP estimates for the UK and big bank results across the pond.
Let's get to it.
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