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The FTSE 100 and European indices rose on Tuesday in London as the Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey said he doesn't expect a return to low rates, unless there is another unprecedented economic shock such as Covid or the financial crisis. Meanwhile, US stocks were almost flat at the open following fresh stimulus news from China and rate signals from Federal Reserve officials.
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By the close, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose 0.2%, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) climbed 0.6% and the CAC 40 (^FCHI) was 1.2% higher in France.
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Speaking to Kent Online, Bailey told the regional newspaper he expects a gradual drop in borrowing costs. Threadneedle Street held interest rates at 5% in its latest policy meeting, after cutting by 0.25% in August.
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In the US, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was about 0.1% higher, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was almost flat following its latest record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up nearly 0.3%.
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London stocks were higher, in part due to a bumper stimulus package introduced by the People's Bank of China overnight, which influenced London-listed companies with foreign business.
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The package, which offered relief to the Chinese property sector, also boosted miners. Anglo American (AAL.L), Antofagasta (ANTO.L), Glencore (GLEN.L) and Rio Tinto (RIO.L) were all among the top gainers on Tuesday morning, up more than 4% respectively.
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The pound (GBPUSD=X) was higher as bets ramp up around the Bank of England's potential interest rate path. The pound rose almost to the $1.34 mark on bets that the BoE will cut rates faster than its US counterpart. Earlier this year the pound had dipped as low as $1.23.
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PBOC stimulus boosts stocks
Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at online trading platform IG, said:
Starmer says costs will be shared fairly
The cost of filling the black hole "will be shared fairly," says Starmer reiterating there will be no return to austerity.
"We will do this in a Labour way, and that is a promise," he says. "If this path was popular or easy, we would already have walked it."
Stabilising the economy is the first step on Labour's long-term plan — a message that has been hammered home over the last two days.
"If the last few years have shown us anything, is that if you bury your head because things are difficult your country goes backwards," he adds.
How stocks are faring in the US at the opening bell
Starmer speaks
Not much on the economy so far, apart from in the opening gambit where Starmer spoke of the need for economic growth to support public services.
"The work of change has begun," he says, trying to hammer home that this government is a "long-term project".
Yesterday we heard from chancellor Rachel Reeves, striking a similar tone, attempting to inspire some hope following dire economic calculations of what the party says a £22bn hole in public finances left by the Conservatives.
Keir Starmer has taken the stage at the Labour Party conference
A big moment for the prime minister — the first Labour leader to address a Labour party conference in 15 years.
Alibaba stock jumps
Shares in Chinese technology company Alibaba continued to move higher after the company announced its cloud computing unit was collaborating with chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) on an artificial initiative for autonomous driving solutions in smart vehicles.
Alibaba Cloud announced the collaboration on Friday as it revealed its large multimodal model (LMM) solution for automotive applications, which it developed with Nvidia.
South China Morning Post, which is owned by Alibaba, said this collaboration was the first integration of Alibaba's large AI models into Nvidia's Drive automotive platform.
Alibaba also announced last week that it was making over 100 LMMs available to the open-source community.
Jingren Zhou, chief technology officer of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence, described the move as a "significant milestone" in the tech giant's AI strategy.
Alibaba shares closed Tuesday's session in Hong Kong 6% higher.
Commodity watch: Oil
Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes:
Oil prices climbed on Tuesday after China unveiled a series of policy measures to support its economy and a major Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude rose above $74 a barrel, recovering from a 0.8% decline on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) hovered near $71. The rally was fuelled by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), whose governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced a broad set of stimulus initiatives at a briefing in Beijing. The measures are aimed at achieving China’s annual growth target of around 5%, following concerns about the country's faltering economy.
The stimulus package includes boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses, alongside a cut to the PBoC’s key short-term interest rate, in a bid to stimulate growth and drive energy demand in the world’s largest oil importer.
“At the margin, this would be positive for China demand,” said Han Zhong Liang, an investment strategist at Standard Chartered in Singapore. “The feed-through from lower rates to the real economy will be key from here,” he added, Bloomberg reported.
Oil prices had been under pressure this quarter, with Brent and WTI both down around 14%, amid worries over the Chinese economy and expectations of increased output from OPEC+. The latest moves by Chinese authorities offer hope that demand from the key market could pick up, providing some relief for prices.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) opened in the green, up 27 points or 0.33%. For more details check our live coverage here.
Stocks to watch at the open: Tesla
One of Tuesday's trending tickers:
Electric carmaker Tesla closed Monday's session 5% higher as investors looked ahead to the company's third-quarter sales figures and the much-anticipated debut of its robotaxi next month.
In a note released on Monday, Barclays analyst Daniel Levy said Tesla could deliver as much as 470,000 electric vehicles (EVs) in the third quarter quarter, when it releases the data early in October. That figure would be 8% higher than the same period last year.
“Given the positive data points reported thus far in the quarter, particularly in China, we believe Tesla's sales trajectory is well understood and investors are expecting a stronger result,” Levy said.
Tesla has faced a number of challenges this year, including layoffs and greater competition in China.
However, after disappointing first quarter earnings, Tesla saw some improvement the following period, with second-quarter deliveries totalling nearly 440,000, which beat analyst expectations.
Tesla is due to unveil its driverless robotaxis on 10 October, after repeated delays.
Stocks to watch at the open: Trump Media
Yahoo Finance UK's Vicky McKeever writes:
Shares of Trump Media plummeted more than 10% in Monday's session to trade at their lowest point since the social media company went public in March.
Early investors, including former US president Donald Trump, were subject to a six-month lockup period before being able to sell or transfer shares. This lockup period finished on Thursday, though Trump previously told reporters: “I have absolutely no intention of selling.”
The stock has seen large swings in share price since going public after merging with special purpose acquisition company Digital World Acquisition Corp.
Shares jumped but then fell after current president Joe Biden stumbled in the first presidential debate of 2024 back in June, with Biden dropping out of the race a month later.
Trump Media shares have slumped since Biden's announcement, particularly as vice president Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has been tracking ahead in the latest polls.
Gold hits new record highs
Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes:
Gold prices surged to a new record high in the early hours of Tuesday, propelled by dovish signals from US Federal Reserve officials and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
US gold futures were steady at $2,653 at the time of writing having earlier reached a fresh peak of $2,663 during the session. The precious metal had also touched an all-time high on Monday.
“Gold prices continue to be well-supported amid a series of dovish Fed rhetoric overnight,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
Fed officials reinforced expectations of further rate cuts, with Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee suggesting there are “lots of cuts” to come in the next 12 months. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari added that future policy adjustments would depend on economic data. Markets are currently pricing in 75 basis points of rate reductions by the end of 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has added further momentum to gold’s rally, as investors seek safe-haven assets to hedge against the risk of broader regional conflict
“Tensions in the region will likely remain elevated, keeping gold’s bullish bias intact,” added Yeap Jun Rong.
As geopolitical uncertainty persists and expectations of further Fed rate cuts rise, gold is expected to maintain its upward trajectory.
Starmer to try to stir hope in conference speech
Looking ahead to 2pm, Keir Starmer is set to try to hammer home the message that there is “light at the end of this tunnel”.
After chancellor Rachel Reeves promised no return to austerity in her conference address, and tried to strike an optimistic note, this will be the companion piece.
The address will be the first time a prime minister has spoken at a Labour conference in 15 years.
Chinese markets boosted by stimulus
The People's Bank of China's latest stimulus package put a fire under markets on Tuesday in Asia, sending crucial real estate stocks surging and propping up indices. The central bank lowered its Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points and reduced lending rates on existing mortgages. It also hinted at further measures to stimulate the economy, according to reports.
The Hang Seng (^HSI) jumped almost 4% and the SSE Composite (000001.SS) gained 4.1%.
How US stocks are faring in premarket
US stocks are ticking up in premarket, set to build on record closes the day before:
Monday trade in the US: Stocks extend winning streak
US stocks rose Monday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) eked out record closes, extending a winning streak on Wall Street. Investors looked to Federal Reserve speakers and a key inflation reading for clues to the odds of another big rate cut.
The Dow rose more than 0.1% after closing at an all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 edged up more than 0.2% to finish at its own record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.1%.
The market is labouring with concerns about the health of the US economy, which have persisted after the Fed's bold pivot to cutting interest rates last week. The big question now is whether upcoming data releases this week will support Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assertion that conditions remain strong.
Much will depend on Friday's reading on the PCE index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — and Thursday's second quarter GDP print. Experts believe that cooling inflation, not a rising risk of recession, will give policymakers the green light for another 0.5% cut this year.
Good morning!
Hello from London. Lucy Harley-McKeown here ready to bring you the business and markets headlines. Yesterday we had the key note address at the first day of the Labour party conference from chancellor Rachel Reeves. Today we're looking ahead to a speech from prime minister Keir Starmer after a rocky week of scrutiny of the party for receiving gifts.
There are also various company updates coming down the pipeline, including TUI (TUI1.DE) and AG Barr (BAGL.XC).
Let's get to it.
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