Lucy Harley-McKeown
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FTSE and European stocks up, US mixed as ECB cuts interest rate
How major markets are performing around the world
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The FTSE 100 and European European stocks joined the global rally on Thursday, jumping as the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. Meanwhile in the US, fresh inflation and labor data tested high-running expectations for a quarter-point interest-rate cut next week.
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE), DAX (^GDAXI) and CAC (^FCHI) all jumped more than 1% after the opening bell in Europe, before trading around 0.4%, 0.9% and 0.4% higher respectively, by the end of the session.
The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) also rose 0.7%.
The European Central Bank cut its baseline interest rate from 3.75% to 3.5% on Thursday. At the end of August, data showed that inflation had fallen to 2.2% in the bloc, the lowest reading since 2021.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 0.2% while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.5%, coming off sharp closing gains fuelled by a tech rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped slightly.
The moves follow a session defined by bullish sentiment around chipmakers and companies fuelling the AI boom. Nvidia (NVDA)'s stock wobbled at the open after moving more than 8% higher on Wednesday, as its CEO Jensen Huang described the demand for the company’s products as “so great” that it “is really emotional". By the close in Europe, it had gained by 2%.
Speaking at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, he added: “We have a lot of people [on] our shoulders, and everybody’s counting on us."
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ECB cuts interest rate
The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates for the second time this year, lowering its main rate to 3.5% from 3.75%. Markets had widely anticipated the 25 basis point cut, which comes after the bank lowered rates in June for the first time in five years in June.
The ECB said it's moderating its monetary policy based on updated assessment of the inflation outlook.
Last week the eurozone economic growth was revised down to 0.2%, from 0.3% initially forecast for the second quarter, in data released by statistics body Eurostat on Friday, making today's cut more likely.
The Bank of England will make its call on interest rates next week when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday 18 September. Unlike the ECB, the BoE is widely expected to hold the interest rate at 5%. UK inflation is currently at 2.2% and GDP data published by the ONS on Wednesday points to economic growth flatlining.
Here's our OBR take
UK public debt could be set to almost triple by the mid 2070s, according to a new report, mounting from less than 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) to around 270% over the next 50 years.
The Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) fiscal risks and sustainability report said that UK debt could be knocked into a "permanent upward trajectory" following 25 years defined by multiple economic shocks.
Public finances in 'shocking state'
Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, sa:
The OBR has laid bare the shocking state that our public finances were left in by the previous government. Highest debt since the 1960s, highest taxes since the 1940s, and debt on track to be almost three times our GDP.
That’s why this government began work immediately to address the inheritance with tough choices on spending alongside ambitious action to drive growth. By fixing the foundations, we will rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.
OBR report makes sobering reading
The latest report on the state of the UK economy makes for sobering reading this morning, particularly for those charge with fixing it.
2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report published – more highlights and charts to follow ?? #OBRfiscalrisks
Data and supporting documents now available on our website: https://t.co/407ehyLwkX pic.twitter.com/Co8gBQm6Lv— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) September 12, 2024
The top line stat suggests that UK debt is set to nearly triple in the next 50 years to 270% of GDP.
When Labour took power it claimed public finances were in a worse state than the Conservative party had claimed — does this cement that?
Thursday in Asia
Asian stocks tipped higher on Thursday, buoyed by inflation data and a broader tech rally.
Nvidia (NVDA)'s more than 8% gain on Wednesday in the US set the tone, while Japanese stocks gained on data that showed the heat has come out of inflation.
The corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.5% in August from a year earlier, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed, slowing from a 3.0% gain in July. It fell short of market forecasts for a 2.8% increase.
The Nikkei (^N225) gained 3.4% by the end of the session.
What's happening in premarket?
Here's what the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are doing in premarket:
Overnight in the US
US stocks reversed early losses to close higher on Wednesday as investors digested an inflation report that showed consumer price increases ticked lower in August.
The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose more than 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the charge, rising almost than 2.2%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped about 0.2%, or more than 100 points. Nvidia (NVDA) led the rally in tech with shares soaring over 8% as CEO Jensen Huang spoke at a Goldman Sachs conference.
Investors had been looking to August's consumer price index to lift the uncertainty around the size of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut in years. The data showed headline inflation slipping to a more than three-year low. But "core" prices, which strip out the more volatile costs of food and gas, climbed 0.3% over the prior month, above the 0.2% economists had expected.
After a mixed monthly jobs report, the price data was expected to help settle the debate over whether to expect a 0.5% or 0.25% easing in the Fed's policy decision next week. And after the hotter-than-expected month-over-month increase for core inflation, traders are now favoring a smaller cut from the Fed at its meeting next week.
Good morning!
Hello from London. Lucy Harley-McKeown here ready to bring you the markets news of the day. We're seeing green across stock market boards the world over (apart from in Japan, where red means up).
Quarterly earnings are due from Adobe (ADBE) and Fevertree (FEVR.L).
On the economic calendar is the European Central Bank rate decision, expected at 1.15pm. The bloc is expected to cut rates to 3.5% from 3.75%. It's also jobs day in the US, with the data informing the Federal Reserve's next moves.
Let's get to it.
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