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The FTSE 100 (^FTSE), European and US stocks were up by the close in London on Friday, following a GDP print that showed the UK economy returned to growth in August. Investors are also gearing up for Q3 earnings season, which begins in earnest today with reports by big US banks.
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The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose by 0.2% Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) gained 0.7%. The CAC (^FCHI) was up 0.4% in Paris by the closing bell in Europe.
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The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) rose 0.5%.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was mostly flat at the open, paring deeper premarket losses as big bank financial updates rolled in. By mid-morning it had risen 0.8%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also opened mostly flat before tipping 0.6% higher, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) opened down 0.3% before rising 0.2%, after closing out Thursday with small losses.
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Investors were combing through quarterly results from big Wall Street banks — the traditional starting gun for earnings season. In focus is the potential impact of the Fed's pivot to rate cuts on lending margins, and thus on profit.
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JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and BNY Mellon (BK) stocks rose in early trade.
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This morning, fresh data showed a 0.2% rise in GDP for the UK in August. The increase comes after two successive months of stagnation.
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The services sector grew 0.1%, while construction hit its stride with growth of 0.4% and production rose 0.5%, supported by manufacturing.
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"While change will not happen overnight, we are not wasting any time on delivering on the promise of change," said chancellor Rachel Reeves. "Next week hundreds of the world’s biggest businesses will come to Britain as we deliver on our promise to bring investment, growth, and jobs back to every part of the country.”
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The pound gained 0.2% against the dollar (GBPUSD=X), after a week of losses. It is trading around the $1.31 mark having hit $1.34 at the end of September.
Thanks for reading!
That's all from me this week. Head over to our US site for more market moving news. Have a good weekend!
Volatile week for crude
Here's the chart:
And here's what Axel Rudolph, senior technical Analyst at online trading platform IG had to say:
UK rate cut bets climb after GDP data
Traders are increasingly convinced that the Bank of England (BoE) will slash interest rates next month, with money markets indicating a 93% probability of a cut from 5% to 4.75% in November.
The bullish sentiment follows the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which revealed that the UK economy grew by 0.2% in August, marking a modest recovery after two months of stagnation in June and July.
Economic advisor Joe Nellis from MHA said: “While the moderate growth in GDP will be welcomed by the government and businesses, it highlights a UK economy that has been close to stagnation since July. The overly cautious and sometimes negative messaging from the government, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming budget, has undoubtedly dampened corporate investment and household spending.”
He added: “The government will be hoping that their long-overdue budget and a possible cut in interest rates by the Bank of England early next month will create a more conducive environment for investment, reigniting growth in the UK economy.”
JPM stock rises following Q3 report
Profits at JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell in the third quarter as it set aside more money to cover future loan losses, but its Wall Street operations beat expectations.
Net income was $12.9 billion, which fell 2% from the year-ago period, as its provisions for credit losses rose to $3.1 billion, up 125% from the year-ago period.
But JPMorgan's investment banking operations performed better than analysts expected, as that revenue grew 29% from a year ago to $2.4 billion.
That should reinforce a conviction across Wall Street that dealmaking is on its way back after a two-year-long drought.
How US stocks are faring in early trade
Trump Media's streaming service boosts shares
Shares in Trump Media surged this week, up 49% over the past five days, though are still trading much lower than where it stood after shares debuted on the Nasdaq (^IXIC) in March.
Donald Trump's media company announced the release of its Truth+ streaming app for Android devices on Thursday.
Trump Media shares have also been on the rise as as investors assess Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's recent media appearances, along with a surprise cameo by Elon Musk at Donald Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, last weekend. It was at the same location where the former president survived an assassination attempt in July.
The race between former president Trump and current vice president Harris remains tight in the run up to the presidential election on 5 November.
Tesla's robotaxis
Tesla is one of our stocks to watch ahead of the open. Vicky McKeever writes:
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, unveiled the electric vehicle (EV) maker's driverless robotaxi at an event in Los Angeles on Thursday evening.
“We’ll move from supervised full self-driving, to unsupervised full self-driving,” Musk said.
Musk said he expected the robotaxi — dubbed "Cybercab" — to cost less than $30,000 (£29,949) when it arrives in 2026. The Cybercab will charge up via wireless induction technology, possibly using mats or tracks on roads.
Tesla also made a surprise reveal at the event, unveiling a larger autonomous Robovan. Musk said that this bigger EV is designed to transport up to 20 people, or a large amount of cargo, though no date of service or pricing was given.
Musk also showed off Tesla's Optimus personal assistant robots, which he said would likely cost between $20,000 and $30,000 when they eventually go on sale.
Matt Britzman, senior equity research analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "It was interesting to hear Elon finally put a time stamp on unsupervised full self-driving as close as 2025 (in regions where regulators allow it).
"But we know Elon’s timeframes require a pinch of salt, and there’s still no real detail on the pathway to regulatory approval. If the autonomous element can be nailed down, which is still a decent sized if, Tesla in on a path to unlocking its full potential."
Tesla shares were flat in pre-market trading on Friday morning.
Asian markets slump overnight as stimulus disappoints
David Morrison, senior market analyst at FCA regulated fintech and financial services provider Trade Nation said:
Commodities and currency check
Gold prices edge higher
Gold prices advanced in early European trading, building on overnight gains as strong US inflation data was tempered by weaker labour market readings.
At the time of writing, spot gold was up by 0.1% at $2,642.80 per ounce, while US gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,655.90.
Despite these gains, gold prices are poised to finish the week marginally lower, as investors anticipate smaller rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months.
The latest consumer price index data reinforced this expectation, but was counterbalanced by labour market figures showing a larger-than-expected rise in weekly jobless claims. This discrepancy raises the possibility of the Fed adopting a more aggressive stance on lowering borrowing costs.
In the aftermath of the economic reports, the swaps market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's November meeting.
The economic calendar also featured commentary from Fed officials, with Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee indicating a preference for gradual cuts over the next 18 months, given that inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target.
New York Fed president John Williams echoed this sentiment during a recent appearance in Binghamton, New York, stating that the timing and pace of any future interest rate adjustments will depend on evolving data, the economic outlook, and the associated risks in achieving the Fed's goals.
Does the UK government have the vision?
On GDP, experts at PwC say the government's vision for the economy will now be in the spotlight. Here's Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC:
Slowing growth?
Debapratim De, director of economic research at Deloitte, said:
GDP day: UK economy returns to growth in August
Pedro Goncalves was up bright and early covering this. Here's his take:
The UK economy returned to growth in August after flatlining for two months, driven by expansion in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% during the month. The expansion follows two months of zero growth experienced in June and July, and was in line with analyst forecasts.
ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: “All main sectors of the economy grew in August, but the broader picture is one of slowing growth in recent months, compared to the first half of the year.
“In August accountancy, retail and many manufacturers had strong months, while construction also recovered from July’s contraction. These were partially offset by falls in wholesaling and oil extraction.”
How US stocks are faring in premarket
US stocks on Thursday
Our US team writes:
US stocks were lower on Thursday after the latest consumer inflation print came in hotter than anticipated, further blurring the picture of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision in November.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped around 0.1%, or just less than 60 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.2% after both clinched fresh record highs on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was off less than 0.1%.
Chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) climbed more than 1% as it eyed a rise to a record high, while e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) also rose roughly 1%, helping the Nasdaq pare earlier losses.
In focus on Thursday was a reading on consumer inflation showing prices rose 0.2% last month, more than the 0.1% rise Wall Street was expecting. On an annualised basis, prices rose 2.4%, compared with 2.3% expected. The data was of greater interest than usual as investors puzzle over the chances of a "no landing" for the economy after last week's jobs report revived worries about inflation flaring up again.
Good morning!
Hello from London. Happy Friday! What a week it's been, with markets digesting last week's bumper US jobs report and an inflation reading in the same breath.
Today we've already had data showing the UK economy returned to growth in August. Retail sales data and quarterly reports from Volvo and AmEx are also on the slate.
Let's get to it.
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