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As nervousness grows that Rachel Reeves will announce an increase in capital gains tax (CGT) in the upcoming autumn budget, here's how other countries compare with the UK on their rates.

Speculation has been rife that the chancellor will raise CGT rates in the budget on 30 October, with the Guardian reporting last week that she had considered hiking it as high as 39%.

However, prime minister Keir Starmer dismissed the suggestion that rates would be raised that high, in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the UK's International Investment Summit in London on Monday.

“A lot of speculation is getting pretty wide of the mark,” said Starmer. When asked specifically on that 39% figure, he said this was "getting to an area which is wide of the mark", but did not offer any more detail.

It is expected that Reeves could still announce some form of increase in CGT, particularly given the fact that she has ruled out raises in other areas, such as value added tax (VAT) and the main rates of income tax.

CGT is levied on the profits made from selling assets, including a second property, shares and business assets. Rates of CGT in the UK range from 10% to 20% on assets not including residential property and "carried interest" gains, which refers to share of profits paid to the manager of an investment fund.

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London Underground workers, including drivers, instructors and those in engineering, are set to stage a series of strikes in November in a dispute over pay.

Members of Aslef will walk out on different days in the first few weeks of next month.

Finn Brennan, Aslef’s full-time organiser on London Underground, said:

State pensioners are set to see payments rise by 4.1% next year, meaning an increase of ￡473 under the triple lock guarantee.

It comes as data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that inflation in the UK fell below the Bank of England's target rate last month for the first time since April 2021.

Under the triple lock, payments are raised by either the rate of inflation, average earnings or 2.5%, whichever is the highest figure. With the inflation figures out, the government will have to raise state pensions by the earnings figure of around 4.1%.

A 4.1% rise would mean an annual increase of around ￡473 for the new state pension and ￡361 for the basic pension. The government has not commented on the figures, but is expected to confirm the 4.1% increase during the autumn statement speech on 30 October.

Global deal activity has fallen 12.5% year-on-year during Q1-Q3, GlobalData found.

A total of 36,992 deals (comprising mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing deals) were announced globally during January to September — a 12.5% year-on-year decline over 42,288 deals announced during the same period in 2023.

An analysis of GlobalData’s deals database disclosed that the volume of M&A deals declined by 6.7% during Q1-Q3 2024 compared to the same period a year ago, while the number of private equity deals and venture financing deals experienced YoY fall of 8.9% and 22.2%, respectively.

Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said:

Asian equities could face downward pressure, particularly as traders grapple with concerns about future chip demand. This follows weak guidance from ASML, which adds to the existing challenges for semiconductor companies.

Anderson Alves, analyst at ActivTrades, said:

...And sticking with news from airlines, Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said the discount carrier expects to carry 5 million fewer passengers next year than previously projected due to delayed aircraft deliveries from strike-hit Boeing.

The Telegraph has the details...

The Irish airline expects to attract around 210m passengers in 2025, compared with the anticipated 215m, Mr O’Leary told the Telegraph in Brussels.

That amounts to growth of about 5% on this year’s expected tally, down from the planned 7pc, he said.

Ryanair is due to take delivery of 20 737 Max aircraft by the end of December that were delayed from the summer after Boeing was ordered by regulators to slashed production rates amid a quality control crisis.

Following a walkout by 33,000 Boeing machinists in a dispute over pay, those jets may now arrive early in the new year.

However, Mr O’Leary said Ryanair expects to receive only half of the 30 further planes it is due to receive next spring, leaving it with 35 additional aircraft for summer 2025 instead of the planned 50.

O’Leary told Reuters:

Airbus is planning to cut up to 2,500 jobs in its satellite division as Europe’s aerospace industry struggles with a fall in demand.

The firm has started informing worker representatives today, according to AFP. The cuts will hits its entire defence and space division, which employs 35,000 people, and last year accounted for revenue of about €2bn (￡1.7bn).

Airbus and the main French unions refused to comment ahead of meetings this afternoon with employee representatives.

It comes as net profit fell by 46% to €825m euros in the first half of the year, dragged down by a €989m writedown in its space business.

Your boss has put up a poster in the office kitchen about the symptoms of menopause, which directs anyone struggling with symptoms to a charity website. But when you’ve asked for time off to go to a doctor’s appointment, or to work from home because the office makes your hot flushes and brain fog worse, they’ve been less than sympathetic.

Although many companies take supporting menopausal workers seriously, this isn’t always the case. Behind the posters and one-off work wellness talks is a phenomenon called meno-washing — where employers appear to support people without actually providing practical, reasonable accommodations.

“Meno-washing occurs when organisations superficially adopt menopause-friendly policies or initiatives without genuinely committing to meaningful support or deep cultural change,” says Lauren Chiren, CEO and founder of Women of a Certain Stage, which supports women in business through menstruation and menopause.

“It's similar to ‘greenwashing’ or ‘virtue signalling’, where the focus is on public image rather than real, sustained action.”

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Here's a quick look at what's been happening in equity markets this morning...

• European markets were mostly lower, with luxury stocks providing a drag as industry bellwether LVMH disappointed with a 3% drop in organic revenues in the third quarter owing to ongoing weakness in China.

• Premier Inn owner Whitbread was the high riser of the morning after lifting its half-year dividend by 7% and saying it would buy back an additional ￡100m in shares, despite a fall in earnings. The company held annual guidance as pre-tax profit for the six months to 29 August fell 22% to ￡309m on flat revenue of ￡1.5bn.

• Antofagasta was also in favour after the copper mining giant reported a 15% increase in third-quarter production as it maintained expectations for full-year output to hit the lower end of guidance.

• Asset manager Ninety One was a heavy faller, dropping 5% after reporting a slight fall in assets under management in its second quarter. AuM totalled ￡127.4bn by 30 September, up from ￡123.1bn last year but down from ￡128.6bn at the end of June.

• Airline stocks IAG, easyJet and Wizz Air were all nursing losses, pulling back after strong gains the previous session as oil prices tumbled. Brent was up 0.3% at $74.47 a barrel in morning trade, having dropped more than $3 on Tuesday.

• Burberry was weaker as shares in the British luxury brand fell in sympathy with European peer LVMH.

ASML’s warning yesterday has spooked investors holding anything linked to the semiconductor space.

It was a blanket sell-off despite ASML, which nosedived 16%, saying AI-related demand remains strong, which suggests investors are worried that this warning is the sign of things to come on a broader basis.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell said:

Main points from NIESR today...

Today’s ONS numbers indicate that annual inflation has dropped to 1.7 per cent in September, taking inflation temporarily below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target due to base effects.

The upcoming 10 per cent increase in the energy price cap in October will exert sizeable inflationary pressure, potentially raising the headline rate by an estimated 0.5 percentage points. We therefore expect inflation to rise to around 2.5 per cent by end of year due to base effects and the energy cap rise.

Services inflation remains the main contributor to headline inflation, but has shown signs of easing, recording 4.9 per cent in September. This has backed a slowdown in core inflation, which recorded 3.2 per cent in September.

Moving forward, it would be important to keep an eye on month-on-month inflation figures (‘new’ inflation) to determine to what extent we inflation will rebound in the coming months.

After erasing nearly all gains from the previous week, oil prices (BZ=F) opened Wednesday's trading session with cautious gains as traders shifted their focus back to the unfolding situation in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures rose 0.3%, settling at $74.46 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) crude edged 0.3% higher to $70.81 per barrel during early European trading.

Tuesday's slump was triggered by disappointing news from China, where consumer prices rose less than anticipated, indicating sluggish consumer demand. This was compounded by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) third consecutive downward revision of its global oil demand forecast for 2024.

Adding to the market’s uncertainty, a report from the Washington Post revealed that Israel had told the United States it would refrain from targeting Iranian oil infrastructure in its retaliatory strikes. This announcement initially dampened the so-called wartime premium on oil prices. However, Israel subsequently stated that it would retain the discretion to make its own decisions regarding potential strikes on Iran, reigniting speculation about possible targets.

Yeap Jun Rong, an analyst at IG, said:

Average house prices in the UK roseby 2.8% in the year to August, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

The annual growth rate accelerated from 1.8% in July, raising typical house prices to ￡293,000.

Average house prices increased in England to ￡310,000, up 2.3%, in Wales is was up 3.5% to ￡223,000, and in Scotland to ￡200,000 — a rise of 5.4%.

The average house price for Northern Ireland was ￡185,000 in the second quarter of 2024, up 6.4% annually.

Rightmove’s Tim Bannister said:

The cost of rent outside of London have surged to a record high of ￡1,344 per calendar month (pcm), marking the 19th consecutive quarterly record.

This represents a 5.2% increase from last year, albeit the slowest rate of growth since 2021, according to figures from property site Rightmove. In London, the average rent has similarly soared to ￡2,694 pcm in the third quarter of 2024, a 2.5% rise from last year’s ￡2,627 pcm

Both national and London price trends are in line with Rightmove’s end-of-year prediction for advertised rent growth, with advertised rents predicted to be 5% higher by the end of 2024 outside of London, and 3% higher in London.

The average number of inquiries per rental property has decreased to 15 from 23 last year, yet this figure is still nearly double the 8% recorded in 2019. Although available rental properties have increased by 13% year-on-year, they remain 27% below pre-pandemic levels.

The pound (GBPUSD=X) has fallen sharply lower to its lowest level in two months after inflation fell by more than expected last month.

The pound fell 0.6% against the dollar, trading at $1.2991, having remained stable prior to the inflation figures.

The UK’s inflation rate dropped to 1.7% year-on-year in September, down from 2.2% in August. This figure marks the lowest inflation reading since April.

Traders will be calculating that September’s larger-than-expected drop in inflation makes it easier for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, which makes it less lucrative to hold sterling.

Joe Maher, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said: “We expect sterling to weaken by approximately 4% against the euro and about 1% against the dollar by the end of 2025.

“We anticipate yield gaps to move against sterling, particularly in relation to the euro, over the next year. Our view is that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by significantly more than what is currently reflected in money markets.”

Sterling was also lower against the euro (GBPEUR=X), slipping 0.5% to €1.1940 at the time of writing.

The latest figures also raise pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates from the current level of 5% to keep inflation at its target level.

Money markets now predict a 91% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Bank of England at its next meeting in early November. This is up from just below 80% before the inflation report was released.

This would bring UK interest rates down from 5% to 4.75%.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said:

BoE governor Andrew Bailey had previously indicated a desire to bring interest down, saying earlier this month that rate cuts could become “more aggressive” if needed.

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages: 1.9%, up from 1.3% in August

• Alcoholic beverages and tobacco: 4.9%, down from 5.8%

• Clothing and footwear: 0.8%, down from 1.6%

• Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels: -1.7%, down from -1.6%

• Furniture, household equipment and maintenance: -1%, up from -1.3%

• Health: 5.2%, down from 5.5%

• Transport: -2.2%, down from 1.3%

• Communication: 5.2%, up from 4.1%

• Recreation and culture: 3.8%, down from 4%

• Education: 4.4%, down from 4.5%

• Restaurants and hotels: 4.1%, down from 4.3%

• Miscellaneous goods and services: 3.3%, unchanged.

UK inflation fell to 1.7% in the year to September, the lowest rate since April 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

According to new figures, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to September 2024, down from 2.2% in August. This means inflation has fallen below the government-set target of 2% for the first time since 2021.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said:

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dropped to 3.2% from 3.6% in August.

Price rises in the services sector, one of the motors of the UK economy, eased to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Investors had expected inflation to fall to 1.9%. Inflation has been on a downward trajectory since hitting a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, driven by increases in energy prices and a sharp rise in food prices.