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US stocks surged Wednesday as investors digested Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election over Kamala Harris.
A call in the state of Wisconsin in favor of Trump by the Associated Press on Wednesday morning put him over the top, with Trump set to return to the White House as the 47th president.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, rising about 1.8%. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up roughly 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) jumped 3%, or more than 1,200 points.
The 10-year Treasury note (10Y=F), meanwhile, rose 17 basis points to trade around 4.46%. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rallied to a record alongside a surge in the dollar (DX-Y.NYB) as Tuesday evening's returns bolstered the "Trump trade."
Outside of the presidential election, Republicans have also flipped the Senate. Control of the House of Representatives remains unclear (and likely will for days or weeks).
Read more: The Yahoo Finance guide to the presidential election and what it means for your wallet
Trump's policies had been viewed by some experts as more positive for the financials sector, spurring a massive rally in regional banks before the open on Wednesday. The S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was up more almost 10%.
Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT), which includes some regional banks, soared at the open.
In individual moves, Tesla (TSLA) stock jumped more than 14%. The EV maker's CEO Elon Musk publicly supported and had donated heavily to the Trump campaign.
LIVE 33 updatesBank stocks surge as analysts call Trump win a 'new era' for regulation
Amid a broad market rally Wednesday morning, bank stocks were among the best performers with investors seeing Donald Trump's win in the presidential race as ushering in a "new era" for regulating the nation's biggest financial institutions.
Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith notes: "Big banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) are all up between 7% and 11% in premarket trading Wednesday morning."
Bank stocks have been strong performers for much of this year, with most of the large money center banks seeing their shares outperform the S&P 500 in 2024.
As David reports, Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo said in a note early Wednesday that Trump's win "should aid all banks," with Mayo adding the win ushers in a "new era after 15 years of harsher regulation" following the financial crisis.
Read more from David on what could be one of the most impactful Trump trades for investors and consumers alike during the next administration.
Good morning. Here's a pulse check for your morning.
Here's a look at the big economic and markets themes happening today, as Wall Street digests Donald Trump's rise back to the White House.
Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, (the week ended Nov. 1); S&P Global US services PMI, (October final); S&P Global US composite PMI, (October final)
Earnings: Arm Holdings (ARM), AMC (AMC), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Celsius Holdings (CELH), CVS (CVS), Elf (ELF), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Toyota (TM)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
As Trump wins, here's what's next on 2 key economic issues
Bitcoin hits record as pro-crypto Trump wins presidency again
Oil tumbles as Trump trades boost the dollar
Crypto stocks rally as bitcoin hits new record high
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to a fresh record high overnight as Donald Trump, the candidate viewed as the most pro-cryptocurrency, emerged as the president-elect.
The world's largest cryptocurrency surged above $74,000 per coin for the first time ever late Tuesday night. But it's not just actual crypto coins moving higher.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), which holds a significant amount of bitcoin on its balance sheet, rose more than 11% in premarket trade. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) also gained more than 12%, while Robinhood (HOOD), which offers crypto currency trading on its platform, popped almost 10%.
Tesla stock soars after Trump win
Tesla (TSLA) stock rose more than 12% in premarket trade on Wednesday morning as investors digested Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk had been a heavy supporter of Trump's campaign. Trump referenced Musk during his speech early Wednesday morning, calling him a "super genius."
"We have to protect our geniuses," Trump said. "We don't have that many of them."
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives pointed out that Trump could roll back the current EV tax incentives in place and be "an overall negative for the EV industry." But given Tesla's potential competitive advantage in the EV space, this could be a "huge positive" for Tesla.
"Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry, and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players (BYD, Nio, etc.) from flooding the US market over the coming years," Ives wrote in a Wednesday morning note.
Nio's (NIO) stock fell 6% before the bell, while BYD (1211.HK) shares fell 3.8% in Hong Kong.
Ives added that a Trump win could also fast track Tesla's full-self driving (FSD) initiatives.
"We believe a Trump win could add $40-$50 per share to Tesla's stock and exceed $1 trillion in market cap if autonomous/FSD is accelerated starting in 2025 and a tailwind for Cybercab," Ives wrote.
Bitcoin gets a boost
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is getting a boost off Trump's win as investors prepare for a possibly more digital asset-friendly government, notably at the SEC.
"With Trump leading the US Presidential race and GOP likely to flip the Senate, we believe, the regulatory headwind for crypto has turned into a tailwind and the market is nowhere close to factoring in this shift," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note.
"We think the market’s first reaction could be to ‘sell the news’, but we suggest investors in stocks with exposure to Bitcoin use the marginal dip here as an enhanced buying opportunity to capture the upside over next 12 months — $200K Bitcoin remains our high-conviction 2025 year-end call."
Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong weighed in on X:
What's next on 2 key economic issues now that Donald Trump is officially the president-elect
American voters gave Donald Trump a commanding victory, powered in large part by an intense voter focus on inflation that has been evident for years.
But Trump's key campaign promise of new tariffs and a “mass deportation” of undocumented immigrants could put new upward pressure on prices, the very issue that appears to have powered him to a win.
A note from Capital Economics late Tuesday night crystallized some of the macroeconomic worries. The authors wrote that they expected Trump to push forward on his proposed immigration curbs and tariffs. They said that as a result, “We are minded to reduce our GDP growth forecast ... by roughly 1% and add 1% to our inflation forecast over the same period.”
Read here for more about what Trump could mean on the key economic issue of price pressures, as well as taxes.
Futures chug higher as Trump wins election
US stock futures surged as investors digested Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election over Kamala Harris.
A recent call in the state of Wisconsin in favor of Trump by the Associated Press on Wednesday morning confirmed the victory.
After a steady rally in stock futures overnight as Harris' path to victory narrowed, futures tied to the three major averages built on earlier jumps on the news.
As of 6:00 a.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) each soared around 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up around 2.9% on the heels of a winning day for stocks.
Meanwhile, futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 index (RTY=F) were up more than 6.5%.
Yields get a boost as investors assess likely Trump win
The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is pushing higher as investors bet on a faster pace of inflation under new Trump tariffs, and a slower pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed.
“Overall though we think that a Trump win means higher inflation in the near-term versus the status quo with Harris, but slower growth (potentially shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off of GDP in 2025 and 2026). For FOMC policy, we think the Fed will continue to ease this year, but likely take a pause in the first half of 2025 as it waits to get a better sense of the impact of the new administration's policies on inflation and growth,” TD’s head of global strategy Rich Kelley said.
The 10-year yield was up 14 basis points to around 4.26% early on Wednesday.
For now, markets are taking this move in yields in stride. But keep in mind this is a market that loves prospects of more rate cuts. If that thesis gets pushed aside under Trump as tariffs spur new inflation, markets could recalibrate to the downside.
Stocks in China slide, but Europe gauges rally
Global stock markets had a mixed reaction to the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency, as the Republican closed in on a second term in the White House.
In China, stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, with Shanghai's blue-chip CSI 300 (000300.SS) closing 0.5% lower, and Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng (^HSI) down 2.3%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises (^HSCE) Index fell 2.6%.
But Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei 225 (^N225) climbed 2.6%, while the broader Topix (0P00006NXB.T) stock index gained 1.9%. The rally came as the Japanese yen (JPY=X) sank to its lowest since July and the dollar (USD=X) strengthened.
Europe's major stock gauges jumped in early trade. London's FTSE 100 (^FTSE) moved up 1.4%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) benchmark rose 1.6% as Frankfurt's DAX (^GDAXI) and Paris's CAC 40 (^FCHI) gained.
Tesla shares pop as potential Trump win in focus
Tesla (TSLA) shares are surging 13% in premarket trading as Donald Trump looks to be on the verge of winning the presidency again.
A win could put Tesla CEO Elon Musk in pole position to shape the EV maker's future, given his strong backing of Trump — or at least, that is how Wall Street sees it early on.
Says Wedbush analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives in a note:
For more on Tesla's roadmap under a potential Trump presidency, here is our chat on the topic on a recent episode of my Opening Bid podcast.
Trump takes the stage
Donald Trump took the stage in Palm Beach, Fl. in the early morning hours on Wednesday as he neared closer to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidential election.
"This is a movement like nobody’s ever seen before," he told the crowd in what sounded like a victory speech. "[This is] forever the day the American people regained control of their country."
The Associated Press has not officially called the election. So far, Trump has secured 267 votes compared to Kamala Harris's 224.
Stock futures soar as Trump nears victory
US stock futures soared as the results of the US presidential election all but confirmed a Donald Trump victory over Kamala Harris.
The former president secured North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, three critical swing states, according to the Associated Press (AP). Results from Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan remain unclear.
Per the AP, Trump is just 3 electoral college votes short of clinching the win.
As of 2:30 a.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) each jumped around 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up over 2.0%.
Republicans win control of the Senate
Republicans have won control of the Senate, the Associated Press projected early Wednesday.
The GOP flipped a Democratic-held seat in West Virginia, as Republican Jim Justice won the open seat. In Ohio, meanwhile, Bernie Moreno unseated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Democrats lost a key member of their coalition in the upper chamber (as my colleague Ben Werschkul detailed earlier in the blog).
Seven seats hang in the balance, with Republicans looking for more gains. They are eyeing a pickup in Montana, where incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Races in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona remain too close to call. Democrats currently hold all those seats.
Head over to the Yahoo News live blog for more election insights and updates.
Small caps rise as Trump odds rise
As US stock futures climbed late Tuesday, futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RTY=F) were the star performer, rising as much as 3% to outpace their larger peers as investors bet on the likelihood that Donald Trump will win the presidential election.
Companies within the index, which include regional banks and smaller domestic players, are expected to benefit from anticipated policies out of the Trump administration like lower taxes and cutting regulations.
Tariffs that a Trump administration would also be expected to enact pushed the dollar higher overnight Tuesday, a benefit for small-cap companies that tend to be more levered to the domestic economy compared to more internationally oriented large-cap stocks.
Sen. Sherrod Brown loses seat, shaking up bank regulation outlook
GOP challenger Bernie Moreno has defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, according to the Associated Press.
It’s a victory that almost surely means Republicans will take control of the Senate in 2025, but one that also has consequences for the crucial Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee.
That committee, which Brown currently leads, has been the scene of closely watched hearings in recent years, with top CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Jamie Dimon and Bank of America’s (BAC) Brian Moynihan forced to answer questions from lawmakers on a range of topics.
Those hearings will surely continue in 2025 but now likely with a friendly lawmaker kicking off the questioning.
The current GOP ranking member on that committee is Sen. Tim Scott. The South Carolinian has tended to be much friendlier to bank concerns, especially around banking regulations.
It’s a handover that could have a keen impact on policy, especially if Donald Trump ends up winning back the White House. One top concern over the last year has been the proposed Basel III endgame requirements that would increase the reserve requirements on banks.
Scott has often criticized the proposal, including leading a call on the Biden administration to withdraw it entirely.
Bitcoin reaches all-time highs
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices jumped to all-time highs late Tuesday as bets on Donald Trump accelerated in prediction markets.
The former president has captured 198 electoral college votes compared to Kamala Harris's 112, according to the latest calls from the Associated Press.
Bitcoin prices soared over 8% to trade around $74,200 a token — leaping past its previous record of around $73,750 a coin on March 14.
Other crypto-adjacent names moved in tandem with bitcoin. Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) moved over 4% higher in after-hours trading while Coinbase (COIN) shares rose over 3%.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like dogecoin (DOGE-USD) and Ripple (XRP-USD) also jumped on the developments, rising 30% and 5%, respectively.
Currency traders are making a clear election bet
Financial markets might be sniffing out a presidential win.
One of the first big moves in markets on election night was a jump in the value of the US dollar (DX=F), which began strengthening around 7:45 p.m. ET.
That occurred as the New York Times' prediction needle began to tilt slightly in Donald Trump’s direction, based on rising odds of Trump winning the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina. Other forecasts suggest a similar Trump edge.
Here's the logic for a stronger dollar: Trump wants to impose new tariffs on more than $3 trillion worth of imports, which would push up prices and make inflation higher than it would otherwise be.
Higher inflation generally means higher interest rates, and higher rates would draw more global investments to US securities because of the higher return. More demand for US assets boosts demand for the dollar, making it more valuable relative to other currencies.
Still, this is an early move and does not mean Trump is destined for victory, though Harris is now unlikely to win in a landslide.
Key swing states, including the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in addition to North Carolina and Georgia, had not yet been called as of 10:25 p.m. ET.
Trump trade rallies, futures rip higher
The Trump trade is rallying, with the US dollar (DX=F), bitcoin (BTC-USD), and equity futures all pushing higher as Trump secured 178 electoral college votes compared to Harris's 99, according to the latest calls from the Associated Press.
Decision Desk HQ, a private company that projects election results, projected Trump to also win North Carolina, a key swing state.
Bitcoin prices extended gains by over 7% to trade above $72,800, while the US dollar rose to its highest level since July. Against other currencies like the Japanese yen and the Mexican peso, the US dollar is up over 1%.
Near 9:40 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose about 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) also jumped over 1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up about 1.2%.
Political betting markets show Trump odds on the rise
Political betting markets made a limited move toward Donald Trump early in what is expected to be a long election night.
As of 9:15 p.m. ET, the odds on Kalshi.com, a political prediction market open to US citizens, stood at 68% in Trump’s favor, projecting he would win about 2 out of 3 hypothetical contests.
The odds were similar on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, sitting at 72.4% at 9:15 p.m. ET.
It was a noticeable — but far from definite — jump on both sites from the odds earlier in the night before the polls closed when both markets showed Trump's odd about 10 percentage points lower.
The surge in these markets was most evident a bit after 7:30 p.m. ET. Gains for Trump noticeably leveled off and largely held steady throughout the 8 p.m. hour.
Both sites are continuing to accept bets throughout the night, with Kalshi touting that their main market now has over $280 million at stake.
7 'election trades' Citi is watching
Citi analysts detailed “election trades to track," and YF's Rick Newman highlighted seven of them: solar energy, fossil fuels, deregulation, tariffs, inflation, antitrust, and housing.
A reminder that while stocks don't care who the president is, and mostly like certainty, the election results will have implications across industries. Read more here.