After two years of annual gains north of 20% for the S&P 500 (^GSPC), Wall Street strategists think 2025 will see a more measured year for stocks.

On Monday, BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski initiated a 2025 year-end target of 6,700 for the S&P 500. On Sunday, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson issued a 12-month target of 6,500 for the S&P 500.

Belski's target reflects about 14% upside from Friday's close; the strategist already has a 6,100 year-end target for 2024. This puts Belski's forecast for returns in 2025 at 9.8%, right in line with the index's average historical gain. Wilson's 12-month target represents a nearly 11% increase for the benchmark index over the next year.

Should the S&P 500 finish 2024 with a gain above 20%, it would mark the first time the benchmark index has posted consecutive years with gains of 20% or more since the tech bubble of 1998-1999.

Any way you slice it, then, these outlooks say the outsized returns the S&P 500 has enjoyed for each of the past two years will come to an end in 2025.

"It is clearly time for markets to take a somewhat of a breather," Belski wrote.

Read more here.

Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports.

The contest for treasury secretary is emerging as a key stumbling block in Donald Trump's presidential transition as candidates rise and fall by the day and top advisers make their arguments before millions of followers.

Last week, the top contenders appeared to be Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, and Scott Bessent, a former Soros Fund Management investing chief.

But the water is now murkier than ever after a weekend of even more intense back-and-forth unlike anything surrounding Trump's other picks so far.

Read more here.

Oil jumped on Monday after crude production was halted at a massive oilfield in Norway due to a power outage, adding to surging prices following the Biden Administration authorization of US made long range missiles in the Ukraine-Russia war.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures rose more than 2.5% to hover above $68 per barrel while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, traded just above $73.

The operator of Norway's Johan Sverdrup field was working on re-establishing production on Monday.

Crude was already on the rise on Monday morning after Reuters reported the Biden administration gave the green light for Ukraine to use US weapons to strike inside Russia.

"If mass causalities are noted a large geopolitical premium could be placed back on crude very quickly," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial said in a note on Monday.

Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Canal reports:

Netflix (NFLX) shares recovered from earlier losses on Monday after the streaming giant's highly anticipated boxing event between heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and YouTube personality Jake Paul experienced technical glitches throughout the live broadcast.

The issues have sparked concerns about the company's ability to deliver other types of live programs, especially with the upcoming NFL Christmas Day games in just over a month.

Customers complained about buffering disruptions and streaming issues while watching the event Friday night. Downdetector, which tracks internet outages, received thousands of outage reports throughout the evening.

Shares of the streaming giant gained more than 2% by 12 p.m. ET.

Read more here.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned positive by mid-session on Monday as Nvidia (NVDA) stock pared its early morning losses.

Shares of the AI chip giant fell less than 1% after dropping as much as 3% on the heels of a report from the Information highlighting overheating issues with its latest Blackwell AI servers.

The big gainers on the Dow on Monday included Apple (AAPL), up more than 1.5%, and Home Depot (HD), up 1%.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed above $92,000 per token on Monday morning after rebounding from its biggest retreat since the election over the weekend.

The cryptocurrency has been a closely watched 'Trump trade', surging since Donald Trump's presidential election win. Trump has promised pro-crypto incentives, including the creation of a bitcoin national stockpile.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell more than 2.5% in early trading ahead of the AI chip giants quarterly results this week.

Investors also assessed a report over the weekend from the Information claiming the company may have hit a snag with its next-generation Blackwell technology involving an overheating issue. The report claims Nvidia asked its suppliers to change the design of its racks to overcome the problem.

Nvidia is slated to report its quarterly results this Wednesday after the market close. Investors will closely monitor commentary from the company to assess their outlook on the AI trade.

BofA analysts noted on Monday Nvidia "remains the most dominant stock in the market, driving 20% of S&P 500 return over the past year, and is expected drive nearly 25% of the S&P 500's EPS growth in 3Q."

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed more than 0.8% to a session high on Monday morning, led by shares of Tesla (TSLA).

The EV maker's stock rose as much as 8% following a Bloomberg report stating President-elect Donald Trump's team is looking to ease US rules for self-driving vehicles.

According to the report, Trump's transition team intends to make a federal framework for fully autonomous cars a top priority of the Department of Transportation.

Apple (AAPL) shares, up 1.5% on Monday, also helped lift the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) also gained.

Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports:

Nvidia (NVDA) stock sank as much as 3% in early trading Monday following a new report from the Information highlighting overheating issues with its latest Blackwell AI servers.

The news also comes ahead of the AI chipmaker's earnings report, which is slated for release after the market close on Wednesday.

The news is not the first time issues have been reported with the company's Blackwell products. In August, he Information reported that the leading AI chipmaker was dealing with design flaws related to the individual Blackwell chips themselves.

Read more here.

Homebuilders rose following Donald Trump’s election victory, though expectations for the housing market still remained muted in November.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 46 in November, up from 43 from the previous month and marking the third consecutive monthly gain. November’s reading was higher than economists’ estimates of 43, according to Bloomberg data.

Still, any reading under 50 indicates more builders view conditions as poor rather than good.

“With the elections now in the rearview mirror, builders are expressing increasing confidence that Republicans gaining all the levers of power in Washington will result in significant regulatory relief for the industry that will lead to the construction of more homes and apartments,” NAHB chairman Carl Harris, a custom homebuilder from Wichita, Kan., wrote in a press statement.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates continued their recent rise, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan holding at 6.78% last week from 6.79% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

Rates on a home loan tend to follow US Treasury yields, which have been rising since mid-September due in part to investors anticipating a Trump victory and his proposed policies around taxes and tariffs. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell as low as 6.08% in early September.

"While the stock market cheered the election result, the bond market has concerns, as indicated by a rise for long-term interest rates," said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. "There is also policy uncertainty in front of the business sector and housing market as the executive branch changes hands."

The NAHB survey showed builders continue to offer concessions in November.

The survey found that 60% of builders used some sort of sales incentive to close the deal, slightly lower than the 62% that used incentives in October. Meanwhile, 31% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in November, unchanged since July. The average price reduction was 5%, slightly lower than 6% last month.

The gauge measuring the sales outlook over the next six months rose 7 points to 64. The prospective-buyer traffic gauge gained 3 points, while the NAHB index of current sales conditions rose 2 points in November.

The major averages opened mixed on Monday as investors focus on earnings from chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) later this week to test the strength of the AI trade, and determine the near-term direction of the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped 0.2% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was flat. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.1% as Tesla (TSLA) jumped over the possibility of more relaxed autonomous driving rules under a Trump administration.

Meanwhile, Nvidia will report earnings this Wednesday. On Monday, BofA analysts noted Nvidia "remains the most dominant stock in the market, driving 20% of S&P 500 return over the past year, and is expected drive nearly 25% of the S&P 500's EPS growth in 3Q."

"With the market taking a breather last week following the election rally, we believe NVDA earnings can dictate the near-term direction of the market," wrote the analysts.

Economic data: NAHB housing market index (November)

Earnings: Trip.com (TCOM)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:

Nvidia earnings: What to watch with AI trade in balance

Tesla stock jumps as Trump team backs self-driving cars

A big Wall Street winner from Trump's bitcoin bump: BlackRock

New Nvidia AI chips have issue with overheating: Report

Wall Street bear Wilson sets bullish S&P 500 target for 2025

Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy protection

MicroStrategy’s $26 Billion Bitcoin Cache Is Larger Than IBM, Nike Cash Holdings

Wall Street's 2025 outlook reports are trickling in, and one keyword search I am doing, of course, is tariffs. Any tariffs imposed on China or Europe by Trump could impact the economy and the outlook for Fed policy.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is out this morning downplaying the potential economic impact of tariffs. Hatzius reasons that tariffs would be more of a one-time hit to growth and inflation, and won't derail further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.

Hatzius says:

To say expectations on Nvidia (NVDA) are sky high into its Wednesday earnings print is an understatement.

They are super, extra sky high!

Nvidia has outperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC) by 172% year to date and 5% in the last month, points out EvercoreISI analyst Mark Lipacis. The stock trades on a forward P/E multiple of 37 times, a 54% premium to the S&P 500.

The expectations have Wall Street hedging their bets a bit on Nvidia into the release. Here's Lipacis in a client note this morning:

I touched on Nvidia's valuation in a recent chat on the Opening Bid podcast with Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya (video below). Arya makes some good points on how Nvidia's stock tends to trade around certain valuation levels.