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Maersk remains upbeat about the state of container shipping—and the industry’s ability keep generating profits in 2024.
The ocean carrier upwardly revised its outlook for global container market volume growth for the full year, saying it would expand at a 6 percent rate. Previously, the Danish logistics giant called for growth between 4 percent and 6 percent.
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Maersk also raised its full-year guidance for the fourth time in the past six months, with the company now expecting earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) between $5.2 billion and $5.7 billion—significantly ahead of the former $3 billion to $5 billion rage. Anticipated EBITDA is $11 billion to $11.5 billion, while free cash flow forecasts are now set at $3 billion.
According to Maersk, the projections are on the back of strong third quarter results combined with the strong container market demand and the continuation of the Red Sea situation.
The company unveiled preliminary figures for the period, including $15.8 billion in revenue, underlying EBITDA of $4.8 billion and EBIT of $3.3 billion. Revenue would represent a 30 percent uptick this quarter.
A.P. Moller-Maersk will publish its full quarterly results on Oct. 31.
Maersk first raised its forecast in May, when it determined that container volume growth would be on the high end of its initial 2.5-percent-to-4.5-percent range. In a bigger illustration of how much the environment changed, the company’s EBIT was expected to range between no growth and a $5 billion loss when the container shipping firm made its 2024 projections in February.
The ongoing missile attacks from Yemen-based Houthi militants in the Red Sea have effectively forced ocean carriers to abandon the Red Sea route for Asia-to-Europe shipping since last winter, instead opting to take the longer route around southern Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
Upon debuting its vessel-sharing agreement with Hapag-Lloyd starting Feb. 1, 2025, Maersk and its partner agreed to scrap Suez Canal-bound sailings, instead focusing entirely on the Cape of Good Hope network.
These near-yearlong diversions have been a boon for ocean freight rates as the carriers take longer trips and operate with less capacity. While container prices are down 45 percent from their July peak of $5,397 on average, per data from the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), they are still nearly double from the numbers when the vessels started to spurn the Suez Canal last December.