As you might know, Martinrea International Inc. (TSE:MRE) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Martinrea International missed earnings this time around, with CA$1.3b revenue coming in 4.0% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.54 also fell short of expectations by 15%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Martinrea International

After the latest results, the consensus from Martinrea International's six analysts is for revenues of CA$5.18b in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 2.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 39% to CA$2.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$5.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.62 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CA$18.04, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Martinrea International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$21.50 and the most bearish at CA$15.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.5% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Martinrea International is expected to lag the wider industry.