Microsoft to announce fiscal Q1 earnings as AI revenue remains top of mind

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Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report its fiscal first quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday as investors and analysts look for more signs that its big artificial intelligence bets are paying off and for how much more the company expects to spend on the technology going forward.

Microsoft is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, thanks to the billions it has invested in its cloud infrastructure and ChatGPT-developer OpenAI. But OpenAI hasn’t exactly been a paragon of stability, with the company shedding a slew of senior executives over the last year as it seeks to turn into a for-profit business.

The tech giant is also dealing with increasing competition from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Salesforce (CRM), which have developed or are developing their own OpenAI rivals.

Microsoft stock is up some 30% over the last 12 months. And while that’s certainly nothing to shrug off, it’s lower than the broader S&P 500 (^GSPC), which is up 38%. Google parent Alphabet’s stock is up 41%, while Amazon shares are up 49% during the same period.

For the quarter, Microsoft is expected to report earnings per share of $3.10 on revenue of $64.5 billion, according to analysts consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company reported EPS of $2.99 on revenue of $56.5 billion during the same quarter last year.

Commercial cloud revenue, which includes cloud services sales, is expected to come in at $38.1 billion, up from $31.8 billion in Q1 2023. Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud business segment, which includes its Azure platform, is expected to top out at $26.4 billion versus $24.2 billion during the same period a year ago.

Analysts expect Microsoft's Productivity and Business Processes segment, which includes the sales of services like Office 365, to generate $23.1 billion in revenue. That’s better than the $18.5 billion the segment brought in during Q1 2023

Then there’s Microsoft’s More Personal Computing business, which includes the sale of Windows software to computer manufacturers and its Xbox hardware and software. Analysts expect the segment to generate $14 billion, up from $13.6 billion.

The PC market is in the early innings of a recovery after sales collapsed following the enormous growth around the onset of the pandemic. Microsoft, along with its manufacturing partners, is also pushing a new class of computers known as Copilot+ PCs.

Microsoft is bringing a number of AI-powered updates to its Copilot+PCs. (Image: Microsoft)
Microsoft is pushing its Copilot+ PCs and their built-in AI features as the future of laptops and desktops. (Image: Microsoft) · Microsoft

Copilot+ PCs, or laptops with the power to perform on-device AI processes, are the PC industry’s attempt to capitalize on the AI hype story.