With primary voting set to start in the early-voting states, cranky radical Bernie Sanders appears to have the momentum among Democratic presidential candidates. He’s rising in the polls, pulling in cash and scaring the daylights out of the Democratic establishment.
This could be Mike Bloomberg’s opening. When the billionaire former mayor of New York City entered the race in November, it seemed like a vanity project headed nowhere. But Bloomberg has risen into the top tier of candidates in some polls. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has Bloomberg fourth among Democratic voters, with 9% of the vote. That puts him ahead of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. A Morning Consult poll puts Bloomberg at 12%, just two points behind Elizabeth Warren.
Bloomberg could get another meaningful boost from a change in the rules governing who gets to participate in televised debates. The Democratic National Committee dropped a requirement tied to small-donor donations, which effectively kept Bloomberg out, since he’s self-funding his campaign and not asking for donations. Debate participation will now be determined by poll resulting, giving Bloomberg a way in. The next televised debates are in New Hampshire on Feb. 7, Nevada on Feb. 19 and South Carolina on Feb. 25.
Bloomberg isn’t even campaigning in the first four primaries—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Instead, he’s targeting the 14 “super Tuesday” states that will vote on March 3, with about one-third of all Democratic primary delegates up for grabs. His ad spending so far dwarfs everybody else’s, approaching $300 million—including $11 million for a Feb. 2. Super Bowl ad highlighting his efforts to reduce gun violence.
What are the chances?
With the Democratic nomination still up for grabs, Bloomberg’s bottomless spending could work. Political analyst Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report gives Bloomberg a 20% to 25% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Cook still sees Joe Biden as the front-runner, with 40% odds, and either Sanders or Warren as the second-placer, with roughly 30% odds. But there’s now a narrow pathway for Bloomberg, and it hinges on Sanders coming on strong.
If Sanders surges to win Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, it will turbocharge Sanders’ fundraising going into the costly super Tuesday races. It will also hamstring Biden’s fundraising, which is marginal to start with. Biden will probably win South Carolina no matter what, since among Democrats he’s strongest with minorities who account for more than half the voters in South Carolina. But if Biden does poorly in the other states it could leave him mortally wounded.
Sanders is already the top money-raiser among Democrats, and success in the early states could kill the Warren campaign, since the two candidates are chasing many of the same voters. If Warren and Biden flame out, Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg would become the leading centrists among Democrats. Buttigieg has been fading, while Bloomberg has been rising. Since Bloomberg can outspend every other Democrat combined, the edge is all his when it comes to financing ad buys, campaign staff, research, mailing lists and everything else campaign money buys.
Money doesn’t always buy success in politics. Biden is still among the top Democrats, despite middling fundraising that has trailed that of Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and even Andrew Yang. His long career gives him strong name recognition, and his association with President Obama seems to count for a lot among Democrats.
So Biden could block Bloomberg’s ascent. But Bloomberg seems to consider himself the reliable centrist fallback if Biden’s campaign collapses, which it still could. For all the theoretical handicapping, we might finally know by the end of February.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: [email protected]. Encrypted communication available. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
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