The analysts covering Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ:BMRC) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Bank of Marin Bancorp, is for revenues of US$76m in 2024, which would reflect a sizeable 23% reduction in Bank of Marin Bancorp's sales over the past 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of US$108m in 2024. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Bank of Marin Bancorp, noting the pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates in this update.

View our latest analysis for Bank of Marin Bancorp

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 40% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bank of Marin Bancorp is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Bank of Marin Bancorp after today.

Unfortunately, by using these new estimates as a starting point, we've run a discounted cash flow calculation (DCF) on Bank of Marin Bancorp that suggests the company could be somewhat overvalued. You can learn more about our valuation methodology for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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