In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZSE:OCA) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 42% in three years, versus a market decline of about 4.2%.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

See our latest analysis for Oceania Healthcare

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years that the share price fell, Oceania Healthcare's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 36% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 17% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We know that Oceania Healthcare has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Oceania Healthcare will grow revenue in the future.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Oceania Healthcare's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Oceania Healthcare's TSR, which was a 38% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Oceania Healthcare shareholders have received returns of 13% over twelve months, which isn't far from the general market return. To take a positive view, the gain is pleasing, and it sure beats annualized TSR loss of 3%, which was endured over half a decade. While 'turnarounds seldom turn' there are green shoots for Oceania Healthcare. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Oceania Healthcare (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.