Oil Holds Near November Lows as Traders Brace for Crude Glut

Mia Gindis and Maggie Eastland
1 min read

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(Bloomberg) -- Oil held near November lows, settling near $68 a barrel, as increasingly bearish fundamentals capped the session’s gain.

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In the physical market, a key supply gauge suggests a glut is coming sooner than expected, while timespreads in the futures market are flashing signs of oversupply. Also weighing on oil: OPEC cut its demand growth forecasts for a fourth consecutive month and the dollar hit a one-year high, making commodities priced in the currency less attractive.

Still, a spate of activity in the physical market that sets the Dated Brent benchmark kept oil futures jumpy. London-based Petroineos has so far this month purchased eight crude cargoes, supporting prices at the European close. Brent ended the session below $72 a barrel.

“It’ll be a choppy trade in the mid-60s to mid-70s until the market gets more clarity on the driving narratives,” said Jon Byrne, analyst at Strategas Securities.

Traders continue to track tensions in the Middle East, the prospects of a second Trump presidency and OPEC+ decisions on output. The outlook remains weak, with global supply expected to outpace demand next year. China’s latest measures to kick-start its economy stopped short of direct stimulus, and inflation remains weak.

In one bright spot for bulls, President-elect Donald Trump is expected to name Marco Rubio as secretary of state, a person familiar with the matter said. The Florida senator has previously supported a maximum-pressure campaign against Iran and an emboldened Israeli response to threats from OPEC’s largest producer.

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--With assistance from Alex Longley and Sherry Su.

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