After seeing prices at the pump surge from $2.67 in January to more than $3.80 per gallon in the summer, the oil industry is on pace to end the year in negative territory.
The supply and demand mismatch that shaped the first half of 2023 has inverted, thanks to oversupply and slowing demand, sending oil prices down 4.5% year to date and 22% lower than 2022's average.
And it's all in spite of the efforts of OPEC+ to keep prices high.
For the past year OPEC+, the consortium of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, has been using output cuts to keep a price floor on oil, a level many analysts see as $80 per barrel.
"OPEC+ needs higher prices to meet their domestic budget spending considerations," Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said earlier this year. "OPEC+ will continue to take preemptive action when prices fall."
And it's had to, with most demand falling significantly.
“Only the US and India’s demand has remained strong, but it also looks to be slipping as we come into year-end," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, told Yahoo Finance.
Meanwhile, Asia's refining is slowing and Europe has built stockpiles in Europe.
That $80 floor has been breached since November. (On Monday, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was trading above $73 per barrel. Brent International (BZ=F) futures hovered above $78.)
But the deeper production cuts announced in late November by OPEC+ weren't enough to stop a downward trend move. In less than a week since the OPEC announcement was made, WTI and Brent were down by $5 per barrel or roughly 6%.
The recent cuts lack supervision and are mostly voluntary — something that most traders believe won't actually tamp down production, Kissler said.
While OPEC production cuts and unilateral reductions from Saudi Arabia were taking place throughout this year, non-OPEC producers have been pumping up their output. The US exported a record amount of crude in the first half of the year, diminishing the effects of the OPEC cuts.
The high prices earlier this year may have paid OPEC countries' bills, but according to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the uncomfortably high prices have also pushed non-OPEC countries to hasten their investments in their own production.
OPEC's next moves depend on where oil goes.
"If we see WTI prices fall into the low $60-per-barrel area, we could see OPEC reappear with a much more unified production restraint with more supervision,” said Kissler.
But recent forecasts indicate the current price of crude may be slightly oversold at the current prices — which are still close to $80.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it forecasts Brent crude oil spot price will increase from an average of $78 per barrel in December to an average of $84 in the first half of 2024, "partly driven by recently announced OPEC+ production cuts."
Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, said in a November note her team sees Brent crude oil averaging $81 per barrel this year, and $83 a barrel next year, noting expectations of "more of the same" with "largely flat" prices.
By 2025, the JPMorgan analysts expect to see a 10% drop in Brent prices, falling to an average of $75 a barrel.
Some forecasts are more downbeat, like Citi's, whose analysts cite fast supply growth.
"We hold a bearish view on oil where we forecast Brent to average $82 in 4Q, and $74 for 2024," wrote Ed Morse, Citi's global head of commodities research.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @ines_ferre.
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