The box office bump for the Oscars' 'Best Picture' winner is smaller than you think

Alexandra Canal
·Senior Reporter
Updated 3 min read
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Is an Oscar win really that important to the box office? Apparently not.

According to data from Comscore, most films see a post-nomination pop in the double or even triple digits. Yet the response following a win is much more muted.

For this year’s best picture nominees, “JoJo Rabbit” saw a staggering 630% change in its weekend gross figures following its nomination. Meanwhile, “Joker” saw a 487% pop, while “Once Upon A Time in Hollywood” enjoyed a staggering 824% boost.

(Courtesy: Comscore)
(Courtesy: Comscore)

The war drama “1917” actually tumbled 41% following its nomination, but that’s only because it surged nearly 1000% the weekend prior, after it won the Golden Globe for best drama — an anomaly in a sea of triple digit growth.

“There is no downside to getting an Oscar nomination, particular for films that get a best picture nomination,” Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian told Yahoo Finance.

He said the effect is “incalculable to a movie’s importance, and that post-nomination bounce really is the biggest,” he added.

Past Oscar winners have experienced similar box office reactions.

The percentage of gross box office income for “Green Book” came in a little over 18% following its 2019 win, but its post-nomination bounce was more than double that number at 50%.

(Courtesy: Comscore)
(Courtesy: Comscore)

2018’s ‘Shape of Water’ had the same pattern with a 9.8% gross post-win, verses 52% post-nomination.

Oscar Race: ‘1917’ expected to win big

Universal Pictures’ “1917” is poised to win big at this year’s Academy Awards.

According to The Hollywood Reporter, the Sam Mendes-directed drama has the slight edge over “Parasite” and “Joker” to win best picture — after nabbing the top prize at last month’s Golden Globes.

If “Parasite” were to win best picture on Sunday, it’d be the first non-English-language film to ever win the title. Currently, it’s the Academy's first-ever Korean best picture nominee.

The category is perhaps the most competitive with buzzy films like Netflix’s “The Irishman” (NFLX), Warner Bros.’ “Joker” and Columbia Picture’s “One Upon A Time in Hollywood” (SNE) also heavily campaigning for the top prize.

Joaquin Phoenix and Renée Zellweger seem to be a lock for Best Actor and Best Actress, while Brad Pitt and Laura Dern are widely expected to go home with the award for Best Supporting Actor and Actress, respectively.

The 92nd Academy Awards will air live Sunday night on ABC.

Alexandra Canal is a Producer at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alliecanal8193

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