PayPal's Solid Transaction Growth Boosts Confidence, Yet Q4 Revenue Guidance Dampens Enthusiasm: Analyst

PayPal's Solid Transaction Growth Boosts Confidence, Yet Q4 Revenue Guidance Dampens Enthusiasm: Analyst
PayPal's Solid Transaction Growth Boosts Confidence, Yet Q4 Revenue Guidance Dampens Enthusiasm: Analyst

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JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang maintained an Overweight rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL).

On Tuesday, PayPal reported fiscal third-quarter revenue growth of 6% to $7.85 billion, marginally missing the analyst consensus estimate of $7.88 billion.

Total payment volumes increased 9% to $422.6 billion in the quarter.

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Payment transactions were up 6% to $6.6 billion, and the payment transactions per active account increased 9% on a trailing 12-month basis to $61.40. Total active accounts decreased by 0.9% to 432 million.

PayPal expects fourth-quarter revenues to increase by a low-single-digit percentage compared to $8.03 billion in the prior year’s period and the consensus of $7.81 billion. It expects adjusted EPS of $1.03-$1.07, compared to the consensus of $1.10.

PayPal’s third-quarter revenue growth reached 6%, aligning closely with JP Morgan and Street expectations and the company’s mid-single-digit guidance.

On a constant currency basis, revenue growth was slightly more robust at 6% compared to JP Morgan’s 4% estimate.

Transaction margin dollars (TMD) increased 8% (6% excluding float income), outperforming JP Morgan and Street’s 3% and 4% projections and matching last quarter’s 8% growth.

Management attributed broad-based TMD gains to interest in customer balances (adding two percentage points), tech-led risk and loss improvements, and growth in branded checkout, Venmo, and Braintree.

Total Payment Volume (TPV) increased 9% as expected (JP Morgan and Street at 9%), with a transaction take rate of 1.67%, slightly below JP Morgan and Street’s estimates of 1.68% and 1.69%.

Transaction expenses were approximately five basis points lower than JP Morgan’s forecast, thanks to improved product, geographical mix, and favorable rate changes.

Branded volume grew 6% in constant currency, stable from the previous quarter, while PSP volume rose 11%, down from 19% last quarter but supporting TMD gains, consistent with PayPal’s price-to-value strategy. Non-transaction expenses rose 3% (compared to JP Morgan and Street expectations of flat growth) due to marketing investments, resulting in about 190 basis points of margin expansion and adjusted EPS of $1.20, beating JP Morgan and Street estimates of $1.06 and $1.07, respectively.

For the fourth quarter, PayPal guided for low single-digit revenue growth, down from JP Morgan and Street forecasts of 6% and 5%, likely reflecting a continuation of the PSP price-to-value strategy.