Pound, gold and oil prices in focus: commodity and currency check, 18 October

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Pound (GBPUSD=X)

Sterling was higher against the dollar in early European trading, climbing 0.2% to $1.3043 thanks to better-than-forecast economic indicators.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that British retail sales grew by 0.3% in September. Although this marks a slowdown from August’s 1% growth, it significantly outperformed the 0.3% contraction anticipated by City economists.

Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: European stocks mixed as UK retail sales beat forecasts

The pound was further booster by a subdued dollar, with the lack of economic data leaving the currency vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment. Currently, the mood is cautiously optimistic, exerting downward pressure on the USD.

Against the euro (GBPEUR=X), sterling also managed to push higher, climbing 0.2% to €1.2031 at the time of writing.

Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices surged to a record high in early European trading on Friday, driven by safe haven demand as the US presidential election approaches. Additionally, an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) provided further support to the precious metal.

At the time of writing, spot gold was trading at $2,705.31 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 0.4%. Meanwhile, US gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,720.

The rise in gold prices comes despite strong US retail sales and labour market data, which have fuelled expectations that US interest rates will decrease at a slower pace in the coming months.

The bullion market has broken out of a tight trading range observed over the past two weeks, hitting new highs as the election draws nearer. Recent polls indicate a closely contested race between vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, with less than three weeks left until voters head to the polls.

“Gold rallied to a record high and trades above $2,700 this morning – no stopping it despite the rally in the dollar and real yields in the last month – the 10yr TIPS yield has risen from around 1.53% to 1.80% in the last month,” Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, said.

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“Gold: geopolitical premium but also central bank buying and the ever-expanding deficit trade. And rate cuts, even if we see short-term retracements in relative yields,” he added.

According to a Coingecko report, gold emerged as the standout asset, appreciating 13.8% in Q3 2024.

Maruf Yusupov, co-founder of Deenar, said: “Gold has been a standout performer over the past quarter after hitting multiple all-time highs atop a 13.8% surge. Considering gold’s market cap, this growth rate is impressive, especially as it stayed relatively stable compared to Bitcoin, which recorded just 24% over the past quarter.