Pound, gold and oil prices in focus: commodity and currency check, 4 November

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Pound (GBPUSD=X)

The pound is set to be volatile against the dollar this week as the US holds its breath for the outcome of the presidential election. On Tuesday, the US votes on whether Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance take office, or Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

The dollar was on the back foot amid this political anxiety in early trade in London on Monday, with the pound rising 0.3% — approaching he $1.30 mark. The dollar has tended to swing lower as odds on a Harris victory rise — this could partially be due to Trump policies which support the greenback.

Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: European markets mixed ahead of US election and UK interest rate decision

The pound's rise also marks a recovery from last week, when sterling lost ground amid volatility in the UK bond markets following chancellor Rachel Reeves' first budget. On Thursday, it dipped as low as $1.286, a 10-week low.

The dollar also struggled last week after a lacklustre non-farm payrolls report. Traders are now looking to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision following the election for guidance.

Meanwhile, the pound was lower against the euro (GBPEUR=X), slipping 0.2% to around 1.19.

Gold (GC=F)

Gold was trending slightly lower on Monday morning, down around 0.1% after a barnstorming week which saw it jump to all-time highs.

Currently priced around the $2,746.20 mark, analysts think its prospects are "skewed to the upside."

Read more: Stocks to watch this week: Berkshire Hathaway, Super Micro, Novo Nordisk, Vistry and M&S

"This means that traders continue to hold their belief that any pullback in the yellow metal is nothing less than an opportunity for them to bag bargains," said Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

"There are a number of reasons for the gold prices to move higher, but the immediate one is the Fed’s monetary policy, which traders believe will only become more dovish than anything else."

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices rallied into Monday, with West Texas intermediate up 2.6% by mid-morning to trade at $71.26 a barrel, and brent crude trading at $74.87 a barrel, up around 2.4%. Prices are up following a Sunday decision by key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to pause a plan to increase oil output by a month.

According to Reuters, the December hike in production was due to be 180,000 barrels per day, a small part of the total 5.86 million barrels per day of output Opec+ is holding back, equal to about 5.7% of global demand. The cartel agreed those cuts in separate steps since 2022 to support the market.