Pound hits two-year high against euro
The pound has hit a two year high against the euro as traders bet that the European Central Bank will race to slash interest rates as the bloc’s economy weakens.
Sterling gained as much as 0.3pc against the euro today to send the single currency’s value below 83p for the first time since April 2022.
It comes after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second meeting in a row this week to 3.25pc.
President Christine Lagarde admitted there were “downside risks” to the eurozone economy, with Germany facing a two-year recession.
As a result, money markets indicate that policymakers will continue to cut interest rates for each of the next three meeting to March next year.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING said “negative momentum in the eurozone economy” meant that the ECB “has shifted from rate cuts tied to new macro projections every quarter to considering them at every meeting”.
He added: “It looks like they’re aiming to bring interest rates to neutral levels as quickly as possible.”
Meanwhile, the pound was given a boost after UK retail sales grew by 0.3pc in September, compared to economists’ expectations that they would fall by 0.4pc, indicating the UK economy is holding up more strong
Meanwhile, the pound was up 0.3pc against the dollar to $1.305.
Read the latest updates below.
06:06 PM BST
Signing off...
Thanks for joining us today on the Markets blog.
We will be back on Monday morning before the London markets reopen, but do check out The Telegraph’s extensive range of business news, analysis and comment over the weekend.
05:53 PM BST
Dow Jones returns to positive territory
The Dow Jones has recouped its earlier losses and has pushed into positive territory, which the index currently up by 0.5pc.
The Dow was dragged lower by American Express, which lost 3.6pc after its quarterly revenue missed estimates.
But all the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, which have driven much of Wall Street’s rally this year, rose this afternoon.
The wider S&P 500 is up 0.4pc, while the Nasdaq is up 0.7pc.
05:17 PM BST
‘Farms at risk’ over ministers’ flood compensation delays
Farmers have warned that their livelihoods are at risk as the Government drags its feet over compensation payments for damages caused by severe weather conditions.
Tom Bradshaw, the chief executive of the National Farmers Union (NFU), said farmers were being forced to shoulder massive costs because flood compensation payments designed to help them recover from extreme weather had not been made.
The Farming Recovery Fund was set up by the last Conservative government after storms battered the UK in January, offering grants of up to £25,000. It was expanded in May, but many of the farmers that applied for the second round say they have not received compensation.
05:14 PM BST
Stock markets take different directions despite Chinese boost
Global stock markets took different directions today as investors weighed better-than-expected Chinese economic growth data, a eurozone interest-rate cut and corporate earnings.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 3.6pc, while Shanghai SSE index rose 2.9pc.
In New York, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and broad-based S&P 500 pushed higher after Netflix reported that it had added millions of subscribers in its latest quarter. But the Dow fell “due to negative responses” to earnings results from consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble and credit card firm American Express, according to a Briefing.com analyst note.
Paris and Frankfurt advanced following the European Central Bank’s decision on Thursday to cut rates for the third time this year as inflation returns to normal levels. France’s Cac 40 and Germany’s Dax each rose 0.4pc.
The FTSE 100 dropped, though, weighed down by the pound gaining in reaction to official data showing UK retail sales rose more than expected in September.
05:03 PM BST
Harry Potter production company posts record loss
The production company behind Downton Abbey and the Harry Potter films has posted a record loss after taking a £99m writedown on its investments.
NBCUniversal International, a UK-based subsidiary of the US media giant, said it had recorded the impairment after carrying out an assessment of its investments.
The company did not specify which investments it had written down, but said it had spent almost £130m buying up shares in two UK-based sister companies.
The impairment pushed the company to a loss of more than £97m in 2023, down from a profit of £37m the previous year.
Stripping out the impact of the writedown, NBCUniversal posted an operating profit of £1.3m for the year, down from £1.5m in 2022. Revenues were also lower at £47m.
It comes amid a wider downturn for the UK production sector as a sharp downturn in the advertising market has forced broadcasters and streaming companies to cut their commissioning budgets. Bosses said the decline in revenues was “in line with reduced costs across the business”.
NBCUniversal owns production companies including Carnival Productions, the maker of Downton Abbey, and Heyday Television, which is behind blockbusters including the Harry Potter series, Barbie and Wonka.
Other subsidiaries include Made in Chelsea producer Monkey Kingdom and Focus Features, the maker of hits such as Brokeback Mountain, Atonement and Lost in Translation.
04:57 PM BST
FTSE 100 closes down
The FTSE 100 fell 0.3pc today.
The biggest riser was Prudential, up 2.8pc, followed by mining business Fresnillo, up 2.8pc.
At the other end of the index, packaging giant DS Smith fell 3.4pc, while British American Tobacco fell 3.2pc.
Meanwhile, the mid-cap FTSE 250 rose 0.2pc.
The biggest riser was industrial metals group Dowlais, up 11.5pc, followed by Fidelity China Special Situations, up 5.1pc.
The biggest faller was magazine publisher Future, down 19.3pc. followed by City firm CMC Markets, down 5pc.
04:47 PM BST
Markets starting to price in a Trump win, says economist
Financial markets are starting to price in victory for Donald Trump, an economist has said.
Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, says that the data shows that markets are “increasingly considering a Trump win as more probable”. He said:
Over recent weeks, Treasury yields have risen, the dollar strengthened and the stock market rallied – all trends similar to what occurred after [Donald Trump’s] win in 2016 and consistent with what we expect would happen in the immediate aftermath of a Trump win, in particular if it were accompanied by a Republican Congress.
To be clear, those developments can be explained in large part by the recent positive economic data in the US data. Changing perceptions around the election has, in our view, played only a marginal role.
But within the stock market, firms that may benefit from the Republican policy agenda (e.g. banks that would be helped by another round of deregulation) have outperformed.
That suggests market participants are increasingly considering a Trump win as more probable.
04:42 PM BST
Wall Street has ‘jitters’ as Nasdaq pushes upwards
Wall Street is a mixed picture this afternoon, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 blue-chip businesses down.
Greg Bassuk, chief executive at AXS Investments in New York, said:
The markets today are reacting to mixed earnings data and investors are looking to hang their hats on anything to gauge the trajectory of where the markets and the economy are going.
Mixed economic data, mixed earnings data, uncertainty of the likelihood of more Fed rate cuts this year and the [US presidential] election’s close proximity - those are four major factors that are causing jitters among investors regarding how the market’s going to react for the balance of the year.
The S&P 500 is up 0.3pc, the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.7pc, and the Dow Jones is down 0.1pc (having regained some of its earlier losses).
04:28 PM BST
European stocks edge up after interest rate cut
European stocks edged up today in the aftermath of yesterday’s euro zone interest rate cut.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 is up 0.2pc - and up 0.5pc since Monday - as investors look for a stronger steer over the future direction of European economies.
Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at Wisdomtree, told Bloomberg:
European equities are still seen as potentially attractive due to their lower valuations compared to US markets. But short-term volatility remains a challenge as investors await clearer signals on inflation trends and economic stability.
04:16 PM BST
Oil drops as worries in Middle East subside
The price of oil has dropped today to $72.76 a barrel as worries about the Middle East decrease.
Brent Crude, the global benchmark, is down 2.3pc.
Ankita Amajuri, of Capital Economics, said:
The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. Brent oil prices have fallen from a high of around $81 per barrel earlier this month...
As we had warned the easing of geopolitical risks as well as slowing global demand and greater supply, suggest that oil prices will fall further by the end of next year...
Against the backdrop of weak demand is an incoming glut of supply as Opec+ members will begin to raise output from December. Moreover, we think that the risk that Saudi Arabia will take it a step further and flood the oil market has now increased...
Our central case is that global oil supply increases only gradually next year and that the price of Brent ends the year at $70 per barrel.
04:07 PM BST
China hails Labour’s ‘new starting point’ as Lammy visits Beijing
Beijing has heralded the Labour government’s plan to develop “pragmatic” bilateral ties as a “new starting point”.
British foreign secretary David Lammy met with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and vice premier Ding Xuexiang today.
Mr Wang said:
China-Britain relations ... now stand at a new starting point.
Competition among major powers should not be the backdrop of this era.
Mr Lammy mentioned scope for “mutually beneficial cooperation” in areas such as climate, energy, science, trade and tech, while cautioning that Britain would “always put its national interests and national security first”.
Beijing and London should “show that countries such as ours with different histories and outlooks still find pragmatic solutions to complex challenges,” he said.
Mr Wang said that Beijing judged Labour’s new model for developing relations as “positive” because it “conforms to ... the current needs of the bilateral relationship.”
Lammy’s visit is not expected to yield major diplomatic agreements.
Britain’s relations with China under the previous government were soured by clashes over human rights, Hong Kong and allegations of Chinese espionage.
03:44 PM BST
Tech stocks help Wall Street edge higher
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq edged higher on Friday, driven by gains in technology stocks, while Netflix climbed after beating subscriber growth estimates.
Shares of Netflix jumped 10.3pc to a record high after the streaming giant topped Wall Street estimates for subscriber additions. It said it expected continued growth through the end of the year.
Most of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, which have driven much of Wall Street’s rally this year, were higher, with Apple up 1.2pc after data showed a jump in new iPhone sales in China.
Chip heavyweight Nvidia added 0.8pc, extending gains from Thursday, after Bank of America Global Research hiked its price target on the stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2pc, the S&P 500 gained 0.2pc, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6pc.
The Dow was weighed down by American Express, which lost 4.5pc after its quarterly revenue missed estimates.
Mostly upbeat earnings from financial companies and broadly positive economic data have put the three main indexes on track to log their sixth week of gains.
Adam Sarhan, chief executive at 50 Park Investments in Florida, said:
Financials have responded very well to earnings. They were the first real big [sector] to report [in the quarterly results season] and they performed rather well.
Until we see stocks really get walloped or fall hard on earnings, the market’s earned the bullish benefit of the doubt.
03:35 PM BST
Aga maker cuts almost 200 jobs as soaring energy bills dent sales
Aga has slashed almost 200 jobs following a sharp decline in sales of the always-on ovens amid soaring energy prices.
Revenues at the oven maker, long a staple of middle-class kitchens across the country, plunged by £29m to almost £116m in 2023, according to company accounts. Pre-tax profits fell from £20m to just above £8m.
The decline spurred a major reduction in headcount, with Aga reducing its workforce from 836 to 660 people. Most of those jobs were in its production departments.
Aga said it had been negatively affected by inflation in the cost of energy, raw materials, components and wages, which, combined with high interest rates, led to “demand headwinds”.
03:32 PM BST
UK markets edge lower
The FTSE 100 has dropped further as the strength of the pound weighed down most of its export-focused stocks, which trade in dollars.
The UK’s blue chip index was 0.7pc lower, while the midcap FTSE 250 was down 0.1pc.
Thanks for following the live updates so far today. I’m heading off now and Alex Singleton is taking over blogging duties for the rest of the day.
03:08 PM BST
Reeves expected to prolong freeze on income tax thresholds
Rachel Reeves is reportedly planning to extend the freeze on income tax thresholds in a move that will drag millions of workers into paying higher taxes.
The “stealth tax” announced in 2021 by then chancellor Rishi Sunak had been due to expire in 2028.
It means the point at which workers pay higher taxes is left unchanged, pushing people into paying higher taxes as they receive pay rises from their employers.
Ms Reeves is looking to lengthen the freeze in a move that could raise £7bn as part of her £40bn effort to shore up the public finances, officials told the Financial Times.
Labour said in its manifesto that it would not raise taxes on working people.
This week the Prime Minister and several ministers repeatedly refused to rule out an increase in employer contributions to National Insurance.
02:54 PM BST
Pound rises amid strong consumer spending
The pound has strengthened after data showed UK consumer spending was surprisingly strong last month, offering some reassurance about the strength of the economy.
However, sterling was still set for its third weekly drop.
UK retail sales volumes increased by 0.3pc in September, beating economists’ expectations for a monthly 0.4pc fall.
Scope Markets strategist Joshua Mahony said: “Coming out of a period where elevated inflation led consumers to spend more but receive less, we are thankfully back on a path of seeing higher spending met with higher volumes of goods received,”
“With markets still making up their mind over the likeliness of a rate cut at both November and December Bank of England meetings, improved spending metrics could see dovish expectations fade somewhat.”
02:46 PM BST
Wall Street gains amid tech rally
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq opened higher as they were lifted by advances in technology shares, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 51.9 points, or 0.1pc, at the open to 43,187.12.
The S&P 500 rose 18.0 points, or 0.3pc to 5,859.43​, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 92.4 points, or 0.5pc, to 18,466.01.
02:16 PM BST
Mike Ashley’s Frasers to earn £37.9m from N Brown takeover
Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group has backed a takeover deal for Simply Be owner N Brown, as it also told shareholders it will continue efforts to strike a deal to buy luxury brand Mulberry.
Frasers Group, which runs Sports Direct and Flannels, currently owns 20.3pc stake in London-listed N Brown.
On Thursday, N Brown, which also owns JD Williams and Jacamo, said it agreed a £191m takeover by Joshua Alliance, whose family built up the home shopping group in the 1960s.
Mr Alliance already owns 6.6pc of N Brown while the other members of the Alliance family own a controlling 53.4pc stake.
Fasers confirmed that it plans to sell its stake in N Brown to Mr Alliance for 40 per share. The deal will net Frasers Group £37.9m.
Frasers said it looks forward to continuing “a strategic relationship with Joshua Alliance and the N Brown team post-acquisition”.
In the same announcement to the stock market, Frasers also updated shareholders on its efforts to buy handbag maker Mulberry after submitting a second £111m bid.
Frasers stressed that it believes the sweetened offer “should be given due and proper consideration”.
01:59 PM BST
Pampers maker’s profits fall amid weak China demand
Procter & Gamble reported a decline in profits as the company said a recovery in China was still way off.
The Pampers and Olay maker reported mixed sales across its five product categories, with health care growing the most and beauty declining the most.
Profits were down 12pc compared to last year at $4bn (£3.1bn), partly due to some $800m (£613m) in one-time restructuring costs tied to the liquidation of assets in Argentina.
Revenues slipped one percent to $21.7bn.
Beauty sales were dented by volume declines in Greater China, where the super-premium SK-II skin care brand has been weak for a number of quarters.
Chief financial officer Andre Schulten said the company welcomes recent stimulus measures from Beijing but that it doesn’t expect a quick turnaround in China.
He said: “All we can say at this moment is we’re still down, and we believe it will take a few quarters until we get back to positive growth.”
01:39 PM BST
Storm Ashley ‘to blow Britain to wind power record’
Britain’s windfarms are expected to set a record for wind power generation this weekend as Storm Ashley sweeps across the country.
Strong gusts will blow in from the Atlantic, particularly on Sunday, with the Met Office putting weather warnings in place until Monday morning in parts of England, Scotland and Wales.
However, the storm will send wind output above 22 gigawatts for the first time, according to a Bloomberg Model.
01:20 PM BST
Tesla self-driving cars face safety investigation after pedestrian killed
The US government’s road safety agency is again investigating Tesla’s self-driving system, this time after getting reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says in documents that it opened the probe on Thursday with the company reporting four crashes after Teslas entered areas of low visibility, including sun glare, fog and airborne dust.
In addition to the pedestrian’s death, another crash involved an injury, the agency said.
Investigators will look into the ability of “Full Self-Driving” to “detect and respond appropriately to reduced roadway visibility conditions, and if so, the contributing circumstances for these crashes.”
The investigation covers roughly 2.4m Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.
01:04 PM BST
Reeves triggers property market ‘chaos’ with stamp duty crackdown
Rachel Reeves has been accused of sparking “chaos” in the property market by scrapping stamp duty exemptions in this month’s Budget.
Home buyers will pay an extra £2,500 in stamp duty when a £2bn Truss-era scheme comes to an end.
The Tories temporarily increased the nil-rate threshold from £125,000 to £250,000 and for first-time buyers, it increased from £300,000 to £450,000. But this is due to expire in March.
Our money reporter Noah Eastwood reveals what will happen now.
12:17 PM BST
Reeves’ Budget plans ‘sending British businesses straight to the gallows’
Business owners have said in the comments section below that the uncertainty around the Budget has left them making redundancies and “preparing for a storm”.
Here is a selection of their views and you can join the debate here.
12:03 PM BST
UK bond yields rise despite falls across Europe
UK bond yields edged higher as government borrowing costs across other major European debt markets fell as traders ramped up bets on interest rate cuts.
The yield on UK 10-year gilts edged up to 4.1pc today, making it an outlier as eurozone government bond yields edged lower. Two-year UK bonds were flat.
Germany’s two-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to ECB rate expectations, dropped five basis points to 2.09pc, its lowest level since October 4. Its 10-year yield was down slightly to 2.19pc.
It comes after the ECB cut rates on Thursday for the third time this year, saying inflation in the eurozone was increasingly under control while the outlook for the bloc’s economy was worsening.
As a result, money markets are pricing in a series of interest rate cuts by the ECB, pricing in reductions in borrowing costs at the next three meetings, while the Bank of England is expected to go at a slower pace.
11:41 AM BST
US stocks poised to rise amid tech rally
US stocks are expected to make gains at the opening bell amid an advance for technology companies.
Shares of Netflix gained 5.8pc in premarket trading after the streaming giant topped Wall Street estimates for subscriber additions and said it expected continued growth through the end of the year.
All the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, which have been the main drivers of Wall Street’s gains this year, were higher in premarket trading, with Apple gaining 1.1pc after data showed a jump in new iPhone sales in China.
Chip heavyweight Nvidia was up 1.2pc, building on gains in the previous session after strong results from contract chipmaker TSMC lifted semiconductor stocks.
In premarket trading, th Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 30 points, or 0.1pc, the S&P 500 was up 13 points, or 0.2pc, and the Nasdaq 100 had gained 93 points, or 0.5pc.
11:15 AM BST
Boohoo boss quits as fast fashion retailer considers break up
Boohoo’s chief executive has quit as the fast fashion retailer kicked off a review of its brands, paving the way for it to break off parts of the business.
John Lyttle will step down after five years at the helm but will remain with the business over the coming months until a successor is found.
The company, which owns the Debenhams, Karen Millen and PrettyLittleThing brands, kicked off a strategic review on Friday as it believed the company was “fundamentally undervalued”.
Read why this means the company could split off or sell one or more of its brands.
10:53 AM BST
Gold hits fresh record high
Gold has hit a fresh all-time high on the day, breaking above the $2,700 mark for the first time.
As you can see below, bullion has been rising steadily all year amid declining interest rates:
#Gold tops $2,700 for the first time to extend its record-breaking run. It is now up 31% YTD and on course for its best year since 1979. pic.twitter.com/Ch8fpKJGBZ
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 18, 2024
Gold has quietly outperformed all year. The precious metal is up almost 40% in the past year, steadily gaining value despite the gyrations in bond yields or inflation expectations. pic.twitter.com/A1rLeFe8aD
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 17, 2024
10:32 AM BST
Pound hits two-year high against euro
The pound has pushed higher after retail sales were stronger than expected last month.
Sterling gained as much as 0.3pc against the euro to send its value below 83p for the first time since April 2022.
It comes as retail sales grew by 0.3pc in September, compared to economists’ expectations that they would fall by 0.4pc, indicating the UK economy is holding up more strongly than anticipated.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second meeting in a row this week to 3.25pc.
Money markets indicate that policymakers will continue to cut interest rates for each of the next three meeting to March next year.
Meanwhile, the pound was up 0.3pc against the dollar to $1.305.
10:10 AM BST
Tax rises to hit firms still grappling with ‘toxic effect’ of high inflation
Tax rises will hit businesses as they continue to struggle from the effects of Britain’s recent inflation crisis, according to Begbies Traynor.
Rachel Reeves’ first Budget is poised to be the biggest tax raiser in history, with Whitehall sources suggesting that around £35bn in tax rises is expected.
The Chancellor is expected to raise rates on employer National Insurance contributions, as well as capital gains tax.
Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, warned the tax rises will come on top of the legacy effects of high inflation, which peaked at 11.1pc back in October 2022.
She said: “It is apparent that the toxic effect of high inflation is still filtering down to businesses.
“The construction sector in particular continues to struggle with the legacy of high materials and labour inflation which have led to some high-profile insolvencies recently.”
The collapse of construction giant ISG in September will trigger a “domino effect” of other business casualties across the sub-contractor sector, Ms Palmer added.
Ric Traynor, executive chairman of Begbies Traynor, warned that Labour’s Employment Rights Bill, which includes day one rights for workers and more sick pay, risks “further pain” for firms.
The Bill could make it “more difficult and more expensive to employ staff at a time when businesses are seeking flexibility through an uncertain period,” Mr Traynor said.
09:54 AM BST
London Stock Exchange sacks US worker over ‘racist’ video
London Stock Exchange Group has sacked a US member of staff over a “concerning video” on social media, which allegedly shows a man being racially profiled.
The operator of the UK’s flagship stock indexes said it had fired the employee following an investigation into a video which featured the staff member.
It is understood the clip on TikTok is of an incident in Sarasota in Florida, in which a white man is following a black man and asked several times if he lives in the neighbourhood.
London Stock Exchange Group did not not elaborate on the nature of the video but in a statement said it operates a “zero-tolerance policy against any form of racism, discrimination, prejudice or harassment”.
An LSEG spokesman said: “You may be aware of a concerning video shared on social media which featured one of our employees in the US.
“The individual involved was initially suspended while we investigated the matter. The investigation has now concluded, and the individual’s employment has been terminated.
“We expect the conduct of our employees to meet a high standard.
“LSEG operates a zero-tolerance policy against any form of racism, discrimination, prejudice or harassment.”
09:50 AM BST
Record number of companies in financial distress ahead of Budget
A record number of businesses are in “significant” financial distress as fears mount of a massive tax raid in Rachel Reeves’ Budget.
The number of UK firms with substantial credit risks surged by nearly a third year-on-year to hit 632,756 between July and September, according to corporate restructuring specialist Begbies Traynor.
This was the highest number since Begbies Traynor began tracking the number in 2004, surpassing the level recorded during the financial crisis.
Heightened economic uncertainty as the Chancellor gears up for her first Autumn Statement meant an extra 30,800 firms fell into distress compared to the previous three months, with the biggest jump amongst utilities companies and food and drug retailers.
Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, said: “There are significant concerns surrounding what the next Budget might hold for the economy and the knock-on effect could be damaging for many businesses teetering on the edge of collapse, as it seems certain many will have to deal with higher employee related taxes.”
09:40 AM BST
Pictured: Banking figures leave No11 after infrastructure talks
Lloyds Banking Group chief executive Charlie Nunn was pictured leaving 11 Downing Street this morning after the inaugural meeting of the new British Infrastructure Taskforce.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves convened the group of business leaders charged with exploring different options to support the Government’s infrastructure goals to drive growth.
The UK’s biggest financial companies including Lloyds, HSBC and M&G were in attendance.
09:18 AM BST
Oil prices static after killing of Hamas leader
Oil prices were little changed after the killing of the leader of Hamas by Israel.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, was hovering above $74 a barrel, while US-produced West Texas Intermediate was just below $71.
US President Joe Biden and European leaders meeting during his farewell visit to Germany today were expected to renew calls for a Gaza ceasefire after Israel said it killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said operations are “yet to be completed.”
08:54 AM BST
FTSE 100 falls amid declining retail sales growth
London stocks opened lower as retail sales growth slowed down.
The blue-chip index was down 0.2pc after closing at its strongest level since late May on Thursday, while the domestically-focused FTSE 250 index dropped 0.1pc after hitting over a two-week high yesterday.
However, both indexes are poised to break a two-week losing streak, buoyed by anticipated Bank of England rate cuts and healthy company updates.
Gains were mainly powered by Wednesday’s data that showed inflation fell to 1.7pc, bolstering bets for a rate cut next month.
Industrial metal miners rose as much as 1.9pc, as copper prices rose due to China’s stimulus measures.
But consumer-focused stocks were the biggest drag on the FTSE 100, with heavyweight Unilever dropping as much as 1.5pc, while British American Tobacco lost as much as 3.2pc.
The Dunhill and Lucky Strike maker said a plan has been filed in a Canadian court to potentially resolve and settle its Canadian subsidiary’s tobacco litigation.
Among other notable moves, Future lost as mucg as 10.6pc to be the worst performer on the FTSE 250 after the British publishing company said chief executive Jon Steinberg will step down.
08:35 AM BST
Rachel Reeves set to raise inheritance tax in Budget
Rachel Reeves intends to increase inheritance tax as part of a scramble to raise as much as £35bn in this month’s Budget.
The Chancellor is reportedly considering a string of changes to the tax, which is typically charged at 40pc on assets above a £325,000 threshold when a person dies.
As well as increasing the headline rate or cutting the level at which the tax becomes payable, Ms Reeves could also alter reliefs and exemptions.
Read how she is planning to do this.
08:27 AM BST
Labour to announce ‘own reforms’ to benefits
Labour will bring its “own reforms” to the benefits system in order to make £3bn worth of cuts rather than stick to Tory plans, a minister has suggested.
Work and Pensions minister Alison McGovern was asked by Times Radio why Labour was pressing ahead with plans made by the previous Conservative government to reform work capability rules.
She replied: “Like all departments, the Department for Work and Pensions has to make savings because we are in a terrible financial situation.
“To be clear, on that point we will bring forward our own reforms because the last 14 years have been a complete failure when it comes to employment.”
Pressed if this meant there would be no cuts, she added: “We will not go ahead with the Tory plan because that was theirs. We will need to make savings like all departments, but we will bring forward our own reforms.”
08:17 AM BST
Boohoo boss to step down as profits plunge
The boss of Boohoo is to step down from the online fashion retailer as it launched a strategic review of options to try to drive an improvement in trading.
Chief executive John Lyttle said he has informed the company’s board that he will step down from his role as the fast fashion retailer posted another slump in sales revenues, driven by its international business, over the past six months.
The retail business said he will continue to work with its leadership team over the coming months to ensure a smooth transition.
In the update to shareholders, Boohoo also revealed that it has signed a new £222m debt financing agreement, which it said will provide it with the necessary funds for the next stage of its development.
It revealed that underlying profits plunged by nearly a third to £21m in the six months to August.
08:08 AM BST
UK markets fall as retail sales growth weakens
The FTSE 100 began the day lower after official data showed a slowdown in retail sales last month.
The UK’s blue-chip index dropped 0.3pc to 8,359.47 while the midcap FTSE 250 fell 0.3pc to 21,040.57.
07:54 AM BST
China economy grows at slowest pace in year and a half
China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter as its property sector continued to struggle.
The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.6pc in the three months to September, official data showed, which was slightly above the 4.5pc forecast by economists but below the 4.7pc pace in the second quarter.
It comes as Beijing has sharply ramped up policy stimulus over the last month in an effort to hit President Xi Jinping’s 5pc annual growth target.
Bruce Pang, chief economist at JLL, said: “China’s Q3 2024 data is not a turn-up for the books.
“The performance aligns with market expectations, given the weak domestic demand, a still struggling housing market, and slowing export growth.
“The stimulus package announced at the end of September will take time and patience to boost growth over the next several quarters.”
07:47 AM BST
Shops fear tax rise blow in Budget, say retailers
Shops fear being “whacked” with tax rises by Rachel Reeves in the Budget later this month amid the decline in retail sales growth.
The Chancellor is reportedly weighing up plans to raise rates on employer National Insurance payments.
Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said: “While the growth in sales is welcome, retailers are nervously waiting for the Budget to see if they are going to be whacked by more costs, particularly trailed changes to Employer National Insurance contributions, as well as the inflationary increase to business rates coming next year.
“These changes would add more pressure to an industry that already pays far more than its fair share in business taxes.
“The Chancellor should use the Budget to level the playing field with other parts of the economy, introducing a Retail Rates Corrector, a 20pc downwards adjustment to the business rates bills of all retail properties.
“This would help drive investment and economic growth, supporting jobs, shops, high streets and communities.”
07:42 AM BST
‘Consumer nervousness’ holding back retail sales, says PwC
The drop in retail sales growth shows the sector remains “fragile and unbalanced”, according to analysts:
Lisa Hooker of auditor PwC UK said:
What September’s retail sales tells us is that, while there is somewhat of a recovery since the bounce-back in consumer sentiment directly after the General Election, this improvement remains fragile and unbalanced, with uneven performance from one sector of retail to another.
Better weather and discounting has helped invigorate sales in some categories, while there is still nervousness around larger household purchases.
This consumer nervousness, not helped by wider political and geopolitical uncertainties, does not augur well for the start of retail’s critical Golden Quarter.
Retailers will be hoping that the Chancellor instils confidence in both operators and consumers in the forthcoming Budget.
07:29 AM BST
Retail sales show recovery has ‘positive momentum’
Economists are impressed with the 0.3pc rise in retail sales, which was better than a forecast decline of 0.4pc:
FYI, UK #retail sales volumes rose 0.3% in September - not much but the markets had expected a 0.3% fall.
Another reminder then that the economic recovery still has plenty of positive momentum - and is now more broadly based - despite the #Budget worries ?? pic.twitter.com/isrpQBcyq1— Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop) October 18, 2024
Decent beat to expectations for UK retail sales in September (+0.3% MoM; +4.0% YoY). The 2022/23 volume decline has now unwound, albeit sales volumes only back to 2019 levels. Still a cautious consumer recovery amidst high household savings rate that was at 11% in Q2 24. pic.twitter.com/YgApnVZ01x
— Simon French (@Frencheconomics) October 18, 2024
07:27 AM BST
Retail sales show economy ‘more robust than thought’
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton, said:
The wet weather didn’t deter the British public spending their money in September, as shown by stronger than expected retail sales.
This runs contrary to what consumer confidence data is telling us and indicates that wage growth is an important factor.
The consumer sector is very important within the economy and even though this is just one month’s data, it suggests the economy is more robust than was thought.
07:25 AM BST
Return to school helped retailers, say analysts
Although retail sales slowed down, the sector still performed far better than economists had expected in September.
Aled Patchett, head of consumer at Lloyds Bank, said:
Milestone moments for households such as the return to school will have contributed to rising sales for retailers in September.A rise in the energy price cap could see essential items remaining a focus for household spending this winter.
Retailers who can nimbly navigate consumer sentiment and essential spend will be best placed to take advantage of this traditionally golden quarter for this sector.
07:18 AM BST
Households cutting back on luxury food items, says ONS
As retailers suffered a decline in sales growth in September, ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said:
Retail sales grew in September as tech stores reported a notable rise in sales.
These were only partially offset by a poor month for supermarkets, where retailers said bad weather and households continuing to cut back on luxury food items hit sales.
Looking at the broader picture retail sales increased across the third quarter as a whole, with growth seen from all main shop types.
07:17 AM BST
Retail sales slow as shoppers cut spending at supermarkets
Retail sales slowed last month, official figures show, as shoppers cut back on spending in supermarkets.
Sales volumes expanded by 0.3pc in September, following a rise of 1pc in August, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
It was the weakest growth since a decline of 0.9pc in June but it was better than a 0.4pc decline expected by economists.
Supermarkets sales volumes fell by 2.4pc during the month, leading to the largest month-on-month fall for food stores this year.
Retailers blamed poor weather and consumers continuing to cut back on luxury food items, according to the ONS.
It comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to raise taxes as part of a £40bn plan to shore up the public finances.
Retail sales rose 0.3% in September 2024, following a rise of 1.0% in August 2024.
Computers and telecoms stores grew strongly but were partly offset by falls in supermarkets.
Read more ?? https://t.co/jP5Yn4lRHs pic.twitter.com/47ckvVvmsF— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 18, 2024
07:12 AM BST
Good morning
Thanks for joining me. We begin the day looking at the latest official retail sales figures, which show a slowdown in growth in September.
The drop was driven by a 2.4pc decline in sales volumes in supermarkets, which retailers blamed on poor weather and consumers cutting back.
5 things to start your day
1) Reeves considers scrapping salary sacrifice tax breaks for electric cars | Chancellor exploring plans to remove ‘unfair’ schemes amid claims they disproportionately benefit wealthy
2) Red tape threatens to turn City into a ‘graveyard’, warns Bank of England official | Sam Woods says prospect of more financial rules could undermine risk-taking in Britain
3) Scrapping non-dom tax regime ‘will cost Britain £6.5bn’ | Abolishing tax status is expected to cost the UK in lost GDP and jobs, think tank says
4) Don’t bow down to striking workers, Ryanair boss urges Boeing | Michael O’Leary backs decision to abandon pay talks despite threat of aircraft delays
5) Stringfellows hit with winding up petition in row with taxman | West End lap dancing club insists it is ‘very much solvent’ amid dispute over unpaid bills
What happened overnight
China said its economy grew 4.6pc year-on-year in the third quarter, the slowest pace recorded in one and a half years.
Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics put the figures down to a “complicated and severe external environment... as well as new problems of domestic economic development”.
However, retail sales and industrial output rose more than expected in September which boosted the markets.
Shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai edged up in the morning, while there were also gains in Tokyo thanks to a weaker yen.
Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta also rose, but Sydney, Singapore and Seoul edged down.
Gold rose past $2,700 to a new record.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended essentially unchanged on Thursday, while the Dow notched a record closing high as investors parsed an array of mixed quarterly earnings and digested a series of robust economic reports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4pc, to 43,239.05, the S&P 500 was flat at 5,841.47, and the Nasdaq Composite closed flat at 18,373.61.
In the bond market, the yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose to 4.098pc, from 4.016pc late on Wednesday.