It takes a lot of ego to run for president. Yet several Democrats in the race, such as Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Mike Bloomberg, and Tom Steyer, have positioned themselves as pragmatic realists running to get things done rather than checking a box on a grandiose bucket list.
Several have now proven their pragmatism by dropping out of the race. After four early primaries, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer have now quit, concluding there’s no plausible chance of winning. All three could have continued, at least for a little while. Buttigieg had funding for several more weeks of campaigning. Klobuchar could have at least stayed in through the March 3 Super Tuesday contests, which probably would have given her a win in her home state of Minnesota. Steyer is (or was) a self-funding billionaire who has already spent money on TV ads beyond his quit date.
Quitting before Super Tuesday was a rational thing for each of them to do. It raises the odds that Joe Biden, now the strongest representative of the moderate wing each of them claimed to represent, will wrestle the nomination from leftist Bernie Sanders. Sanders has become the frontrunner not because he’s winning all the votes. Moderates are getting considerably more votes than Sanders and the like-minded Elizabeth Warren. But moderates have been splitting a majority of the Democratic vote among several candidates, leaving Sanders with a plurality. Had the three dropouts stayed in through Super Tuesday, it would have been harder still for Biden to consolidate the moderate vote.
It’s also served the self-interest of the three dropouts to quit while it might still benefit Biden. Buttigieg and Klobuchar will now reportedly endorse the former vice president, beginning the sort of consolidation process party stalwarts have been pleading for. That will put the also-rans in Biden’s good graces should he become the nominee, and win. Cabinet posts may await. Klobuchar is qualified to be attorney general. Buttigieg, a 38-year-old whiz kid, could gain needed experience as secretary of housing, labor or homeland security.
Big questions remain about the pragmatic sensibilities of two other candidates who can still affect the race: Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren. Bloomberg casts himself as a drama-free businessman who solves problems with reason and data. Will he address his own presidential candidacy the same way? If he does, he has to assess the likelihood that he is now the largest barrier preventing Biden from beating Sanders. Biden and Bloomberg both oppose Sanders’ revolutionary agenda, saying they want to solve problems rather than upend government and society. They’re chasing the same voters, and if Bloomberg can start hitting the 15% threshold required to win delegates, he’ll be taking them directly from Biden, continuing the split among moderates hoping to beat Sanders.
Elizabeth Warren is a different story. She’s much closer to Sanders than to the moderates on policy, and she and Sanders are also chasing many of the same voters. Yet Warren is now the only woman left in the field, and she’s an intelligent, skilled campaigner. Polls suggest she could lose her own home state of Massachusetts to Sanders on Super Tuesday, which might sound the bell on her campaign. She may still win some Super Tuesday delegates, however, and she probably has enough funding to keep going. She could stay in to participate in the two remaining debates and hope for the best.
There’s one other prominent Democrat who could make a move that tilts the race: Sen. Kamala Harris, who ended her presidential run last December. Harris is influential in her home state of California, and an endorsement of either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders could win delegates in the crucial state. If she picks a candidate, it would be more meaningful before the March 3 California primary than after. Many Democrats want to see a Biden-Harris ticket, and Harris would probably raise her own running-mate odds if she declared for Biden while it still mattered. That would be the pragmatic way to go, anyway.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: [email protected]. Encrypted communication available. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
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