Lourenco Goncalves; Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer; Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Celso Goncalves; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Lucas Pipes; Analyst; B. Riley Securities, Inc
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Darryl, and I am your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Cleveland Cliffs Third Quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. To remind you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the Safe Harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Although the Company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause an actual results to differ materially. Important factors that could cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Forms 10 K and 10 Q and news releases filed with the SEC, which are available on the Company website. Today's conference call is also available and being broadcast that clearly will be on the website and available for replay.
The company will also discuss results excluding certain special items. Reconciliation for Regulation G purposes can be found in the earnings release which was published yesterday. At this time, I would like to introduce the Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.
I think a very good morning and happy election day to the Americans listening in on the call today. Throughout my 10 years with a glimpse, we have work is very consistently to position the Company to benefit no matter what candidate or political Bharti is Empower. This year is no different at this point. It's clear to us that with either Donald Trump or Gunilla hairs as President of United States, our executive branch, we work to improve conditions and support domestic steel industry owned and operated by American producers. American steel companies are way ahead of all others in the entire world. Both in is still making technology and access to capital markets. We have a domestic market for steel. That's the envy of other nations.
And we have the American people willing to work for us and benefit from these favorable conditions still good. Several important areas, national security, infrastructure, manufacturing, supply chains, middle-class union and nonunion jobs, just to name a few. It's exciting that both presidential candidates are concerned about all these areas. And also that both have similar growth is steel views. We have had a total dialogue with surrogates for each campaign, and we definitely believe that critical points we have made about our American steel industry have been heard accepted and understood. Our number one topic of conversation with the officials is 3D. Wiley steel imports are effect of life in the United States. Not all imports are created equal, a country like Canada, for example, for all the rules and those things the right way. And this is a large part of the rationale behind Cleveland-Cliffs acquiring Stelco. There's still a Company of Canada. We received all approvals within the timeframe.
We expected we would close the deal in three months. That's how M&A is done when we have to be honest counterparties. Working collaboratively, video grows by bankers and lawyers get paid and shareholders are rewarded. In our release. Yesterday evening, we provided Stelco's financial results. Why operating on a smaller scale is Stelco provides amazing resilience in a not so good. The steel markets as well as substantial upside in a strong markets, all driven by the best in class cost structure than emphasis on a spot sales versus there primarily contractual book of business that standalone Cliffs relies upon. Based on this current market conditions, the acquisition of Stelco will allow us to average up the overall EBITDA margin of Cleveland-Cliffs.
This standalone Cliffs is primarily a company centered towards serving the automotive industry. Our specialized equipment capabilities, all material flows and robust customer and technical service efforts are distinct from any other steelmaker when automotive is humming, our footprint humps nicely along with that. Conversely, in an environment like we had in Q3 where the automotive industry is low, down well below expectations, the fixed cost associated to our configuration become more difficult to overcome with Southwest part of our company. Our overall cost structure is significantly improved, making us better suited to serve the non-automotive markets as a supplier to primarily no Automotive end users and service centers. Stelco runs a much lower fixed cost and nimble operation. They are geared to thrive sell into these end markets at mid-cycle peak and trough spot pricing levels because of their cost advantages. These advantages are well documented.
Currency is or cost plant layout, healthcare and power costs. With these advantages, Lake Erie Works became the benchmarking low costs of our new operating footprint from day one. Our Lake Erie cost structure for hot-rolled is lower than anyone else is in North America mini mills included in the numbers are unquestionable. Unlike the acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA, which were either underperforming or under invested when we acquired them, Stelco is both well invested and a standout performer in the industry. Based on our experience from the previous acquisitions mentioned above, we are convinced that we have the opportunity to generate $120 million of cost synergies within the 1st year. Stelco, we will keep its name structure in most of its leadership in the Canadian flag will continue to fly probably at each operational facility. I will now kick into Celso Goncalves for his remarks.
Celso Goncalves
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Our Q3 results were impacted by weaker steel demand and pricing throughout the quarter, which were partially offset by a great cost performance by our team. These factors drove an adjusted EBITDA of $124 million on $3.8 million tons of shipments during the third quarter. North American automotive build rates in Q three were the lowest since the depths of the semiconductor shortage a few years ago. With only $3.75 million units built during the quarter. The latest expectation automotive builds this year is around $5.5 million units, which is about $1 million units less than what was expected at this time last year. With our position as a large automotive supplier. This droves our shipments, average selling prices and unit margins down quarter over quarter. Compounding this, our non-automotive business also saw continued weakness in demand. Overall, average selling price fell $80 per ton and shipments fell 150,000 tons compared to the prior quarter. Given the ongoing demand weakness, we temporarily idled one of our blast furnaces in Cleveland to better align production with our order book as both automotive and service center customers reduced their order activity during the third quarter for idle temporarily takes offline about $1.5 million tons of annual capacity, and we don't plan to resume operations until market conditions improve. From a cost standpoint, we reduced unit costs by over $40 per ton during the quarter, exceeding our previous guide on both an absolute mix-adjusted basis. This came ahead of expectations. Despite running our mills that reduced operating rates, the belt tightening at the operational level was reflected in both capital spending and SG&A costs as well. Our quarterly SG&A of $112 million and capital spending of $151 million remained substantially below our averages for the past four years. Along these same lines, we are taking similarly lean approach to our capital expenditure budget for next year, we have guided to a capital spend of $600 million for 2025 on an ex-telco basis, which would be our lowest standalone CapEx since our transformation in 2020. This is a function of reduced needs across the footprint and updated spend estimates on our three strategic growth projects at Middletown, Butler and we are in 2025. We also see the favorable impact of improved coal supply contracts to the tune of a $70 million cost improvement year over year. That said, our most critical recent accomplishments on the finance front, we're completing the necessary steps to close the Stelco acquisition. As you may recall, we originally intended to fund the acquisition with a combination of financing instruments, including a term loan secured and unsecured high-yield notes and our ABL. But as we began to market the deal to investors, we noticed strong receptivity to the story and group protection. We can raise what we needed without tapping either the secured bonds or the term loan markets. The resulting financing structure leaves us in an ideal and flexible position to weather any economic downturn and to delever quickly when cash flow starts to heat up now that we have stock of closed will be reprioritizing debt repayment over share repurchases with future cash flow generation. Looking ahead, the Stelco acquisitions, assets to the footprint is exactly what we need at this time, a nimble operation that drives even in down markets. The North American Flat Roll market has long been in need of consolidation, and we continue to do our part to make that a real deal is EPS accretive, credit positive, and we maintain ample liquidity to navigate the current cycle based on what we're seeing in the marketplace. We expect that type of terms. And regardless of who wins the election today, it's easy to get bullish on the expectations for 2025. And our upside for that is further amplified with the Stelco at assets. With that, I'll pass it back to around that figure. Celso, in other news, each one of our three key strategic projects continues to progress.
Lourenco Goncalves
Well, we have received Phase one funding approvals for the Department of Energy for our efficiency projects at Middletown and Butler, allowing us to proceed. As for our transformer plant at Weirton, we are pleased to report that we have all of the necessary equipment we ordered to begin making transformers in late 2025. Early 2026, we have secured our joint venture partner who will feel can complement our capabilities, our partner with technical expertise and customer relationships in this space. We will report more news with respect to the joint venture partner in the near term. From the flip side, we are bringing a lot to the table, a large and a skilled workforce, a plant site with all of the essentials already built and in place. And most importantly, the Daryl supply of grain-oriented electrical steels from our Butler, Pennsylvania plant. Our actual third quarter results were certainly not a reflection of what we think a mid-cycle environment in our industry should be. Demand was the weakest. It has been since COVID and achieving our $4 million tons sales targets would have forced us to chase prices even lower as we have done historically and civil markets, we acted with discipline and reduced production by idling our blast furnaces going forward. Based on the trend of falling interest rates, election uncertainty, import economics and manufacturing onshoring, we are getting more and more comfortable forecasting a rather strong 2025 for both our automotive and non-automotive businesses. I'll end my remarks with a note of recognition to our workforce. Our safety metrics in 2024 are the best I have ever seen in my entire career industry to industry specifically for our union partners. We thank you for your support this year. We now have officially added another 1800 USW members in Canada. Welcome to the team. Each one of you. With that, I'll turn to Dave for Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session.
If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue, you may press star two to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment. It may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. one moment, please. While we poll for our first questions come from the line of Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities, Inc.. Please proceed with your questions.
Lucas Pipes
Thank you very much, operator, and good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the time we close it this Nalco acquisition on Lorenzo, given that the deal closed that mid-quarter, and I wondered if you could maybe speak to Q4 volume price and cost expectations. Thank you very much.
Lourenco Goncalves
Yes, I'll talk on volume and markets. Digital and social talk about the cost portion. As far as of a volume. We believe that our clients as soon as we have a little more clarity, which should happen the next few days on the election, customers will start placing orders and things start to hit up fast. I am anticipating a very strong Q1, and I believe that we are going to have volumes back to normal by the first half of next year. I also believe that the automotive glass, at least two of the big four that decide to go for lower prices are starting to feel the pain of this is already back to Cliffs. So the automotive side of business should be much above those well because we will have that business that was taken away for absurdly low prices. Coming back to us, I'll let social answer to the to the cost portion of this question.
Thank you. Cash or here, Lucas, and thanks for your comments on from a average selling price standpoint, we expect it to be a Q4 to be similar to Q3 on a stand-alone basis. We'll have a little bit less HRC and a similar level of automotive on and not a big impact from the October auto contracts. From a shipment standpoint, our standalone shipments will obviously be a little bit lower in Q4, but Stelco kind of bring us up. So what we lose on a stand-alone basis kind of get backfilled from what we bring from Stelco. So you can expect similar shipment levels in Q4 relative to Q3. And then from a mix standpoint, it will likely be more weighted toward HRC., obviously, from having the Stelco footprint as well. We'll get two months of contribution from Stelco, obviously, given where we closed the deal on. And then for other things like working capital on, we should see a build of, call it 50 to $75 million as inventory could be impacted from the C. six outage on, but will be partially offset from a rise in receivables. And then from things related to acquisition costs and things like that, it will be pretty minimal in Q4 costs.
Lucas Pipes
Thank you very much for that detail on bigger, bigger picture question on the CapEx guidance for 2025 to very, very meaningful reduction versus your prior commentary. So I'm wondering if you could maybe walk through the changes. And then on you're still going ahead with your strategic projects on that you outlined could at $600 million of EBITDA. Could you remind us how quickly that EBITDA could flow through and Tom attribute that $600 million to the various project?
Celso Goncalves
Thank you very much for that color. Yes. Look a look as Lorenzo here of, we are basically bearing the CapEx needs with what we expect in terms of a low level will be the next year. In terms of our automotive demand, remember, we have spent a lot of money in the last couple of years bringing the equipment, particularly one that we acquired from ArcelorMittal USA. Isilon. Middle was running to the assets to destruction, and we had to really do a lot of catch-up maintenance to bring the equipment two vectors enough and now they are. So we don't need to spend as much as we thought it would need going forward. Things are in good shape as far as the equipment goes. The other thing that it's clear that our clients that are not transition to electric vehicles as fast as they said that they would actually some are really doing a completely OneEighty on their strategies and going back to license some starting hybrids. So, we are taking Delta automotive clients were do with a grain of salt going forward. And that makes us less eager to be spending will be spending money to change things year to up to grade for do what they say they would be. So that's why do you get when you are price driven as a client. So, we're going to be a lot less aggressive in bringing our equipment to what they expect us to be on. As far as I did the new plants, Stelco, we believe that we are going to spend between $80 and $100 million in CapEx is maintenance CapEx. The equipment's in good shape, like I said in my prepared remarks, current from previous acquisitions, we don't believe to have anything meaningful to do there other than normal course. And so, the numbers pretty realistic and we have a higher price environment. We expect that the overall impact will be a very net positive of I don't know if source has anything else to add to it. It just that I am
sure. So, I mean, just to put some numbers, the cadence of the capital spends, Lucas, 2024, we'll end the year around, call it, six, 25 a standalone. And then as we look forward to next year, we reduced the sustaining level down to $500 million. And then when you add in the strategic investments, the Middletown spend for 2025 is about $50 million. That's the Cliffs portion. But you have an offset in terms of other CapEx savings on middle Telenor about the same level. So they net out. And then we are in the first portion for where earns about $30 million and above the Butler spend clips portion is about 35. So all in for next year before Stelco is around 565 million. And then you add another, call it 101 hundred or 110 for Stelco brings you to about six 75 total for 2025.
Lucas Pipes
Thank you very much. And on the timing of the positive contributions from the Quest contract.
Lourenco Goncalves
So, I'm sorry, sir. So, I'm what I'm looking at the time of contribution of what happened in terms of Middletown. We at Butler and the EBITDA contribution from growth projects are, could you speak to you Myrtle dollars owed? Butyl does a long-term project. Middletown.
We will be operational by 2027. So, it takes a long time to get there. So so long long project budget will be a little earlier, but the progress to late 2016, early 27. And we have done we are working hard to start up of our plant in the fourth quarter of 2026 I'm sorry, the fourth quarter of 2025, but I did the the timeframe or the official timeframe that you have right now is to on first quarter of 2026. So these are all big projects and we need to receive equipment that has long lead time, things like that. But assuming everything goes well, we are done should be operational by the end of the next year. But we're still working with a late 2005, early 2006 type timeframe. Gentlemen, I appreciate all the detail. I wish you and the team all the best of luck.
Operator
Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thanks, Lucas. Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.
Lawson Winder
Thank you, operator. Good morning license. Also nice to hear from you both. And also maybe for you just on costs heading into Q4, pretty remarkable cost savings of $40 per tonne in Q2 three. Is something of that magnitude potentially achievable heading into Q4?
Lourenco Goncalves
Yes, we'll thank them for the comments. Lawson. Yes, we've like I said, we've been tightening the belt, a lot of costs. So part of the quarter over quarter performance is remarkable. I'm very proud of the team here of what we accomplished from a cost standpoint. We were down $40 a ton versus ours. We have 30 U.S. should be commended on that comes from improved operational efficiencies. And just continuing to be to be disciplined on these Q3 costs are the lowest levels since I think 2021. So we're going to continue to bring costs down. Stelco is obviously going to be a big benefit is going to benefit us a lot on the cost side, but we also have the the Cleveland six idle, which bring cost up on. So, you know, I wouldn't expect to see the same magnitude of cost reduction going into Q4, but we'll continue to bring costs down as you guys have seen.
Lawson Winder
Okay. That'd be great. And thank you for your comments on the auto contracts, where kids can I maybe just follow up on that and ask a follow-up question as to how the current contracting cycle sits at the October first contracts compared to the prior year's contracts in terms of in terms of pricing, are we looking at fairly stable pricing?
Celso Goncalves
Yes, Luca will go October clients of where part of the ones that did not move much in terms of tonnage, one of them didn't move at all. So we only increased with new models. So what's normal course, but make no mistake, I had to be a lot more flexible and taking lower prices, not adopt the prices that competition was throwing the market, please fermented by foreign-owned companies operating here inside the borders of the United States. We have one and we almost had a segment that we had to block. I believe we did two BC. Let's see what's going to happen, but we can't allow a foreigners to dump from the insights. They are very good adoption from the outside. But dumping from the inside is a new developments that I learned in 2024, but we acted upon. So our prices of the contracts for next year, we're a lower, but the tonnage is preserved except for two of the clients that really elected to go to lower prices. So coincidentally, these are the two car manufacturers that are really underperforming the competition. So a lot of work to be done and going into next year, we are good at prices. We acquired just Stelco. We have a big, big, big barrier now to distribution that we had to suffer during Q3 and let's say, 2025.
Lawson Winder
All right. Thanks very much for his comments. Rents. I'll say thank you both for your responses
Lourenco Goncalves
Thank you.
Celso Goncalves
Thank you.
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.
Carlos De Alba
Yes, good morning, gentlemen, and congratulations on closing the sample. Just so my children on prices quarter on quarter and Samsung on given the mix with higher spot, higher HRC. in the fourth quarter with the Stelco, do you spend and prices quarter on quarter to be down slightly?
Lourenco Goncalves
Yes, probably slightly just given all the dynamics that we have gone on at the moment, Carlos,
Carlos De Alba
but it makes sense. And then not as if I understood correctly, the 2025 prices, auto prices would probably decline a little bit versus what you guys and will average in 2024. And also on top of these, you have other industries on fixed annual prices. Can you talk about how those are evolving for 2025?
Lourenco Goncalves
Yes. Look, of the you're correct about the automotive contract. So far, we agreed with the slightly lower prices in our newest, nothing really to do to change meaningfully from a dollars per ton standpoint. It's all. And now it's all about the tons. Let's see how many cars the car manufacturers who project they underperform only. They underperformed themselves by a lot in 2024, and we beat the the most automotive driven the supplier. And I assist with that. Now that being in the business of dumping from new side, the domestic market into the domestic market, we suffered more than anyone else in Q3. That's effect for the other contracts isn't a lot of the same C R U Minh resolve a number low single digit number. And lets you are see or you go without imports, I believe that pressure go up. What do you think does kick? Yes, no, that's for sure. We don't look at new supply. Prices seem to be stronger now on the cost side.
Carlos De Alba
And I wanted to on just explore the EUR70 million lower per unit cost overall next year because of lower coal contracts. Are you expecting anything else on the coal side or balance sheet for 2025? And what else am I on Cost? Any big initiatives that maybe you can highlight and what disposition will be in terms of cost reduction for next year?
Celso Goncalves
All it does are big, big, big component that we will have for next year. We found very significant spare capacity on cokemaking and in Canada in our new footprints, Stelco. And with that, we definitely will be by a less outside the company. So affecting our costs very significantly in terms of cutting costs, we haven't quantified exactly how much debt would be, but it will be a number that will be significant going forward. The impact will be more in 2026 because we need to go through the detail of the the existing contract. But I and the next negotiation we are going to be negotiated a lot left us with the outside. Anything.
Carlos De Alba
Thank you very much.
Lourenco Goncalves
Then I'll maybe just to round that out, Carlos, if you allow me on both the average selling prices and costs, right, Stelco will bring an impact on both on both sides, right. Dsps will be will be impacted here from Q3 to Q4, just given they're less rich mix and spot exposure. But this will also come with a cost benefit. And then as we think about costs going into 2025 in the reduction in coal costs that you mentioned on our very meaningful. And then there are other levers or other drivers, I should say, such as scrap, which will offset the increased increases that we'll see and things like labor and alloys and other costs. So you got to think of it all altogether. Okay. Thank you for the color on some. Thank you, Alonso. Fixed costs.
Carlos De Alba
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.
Bill Peterson
Yes, hi, good morning on Red Zone social, and thanks for all the color. We're going to come back to the market environment. And you touched on weak demand. You've talked about weak auto demand. We had any election delays going on. Are things that could unlock that you expect any and trying to get a sense to also where customer inventories are systems, just to get a sense of when the Cessna that could occur?
Lourenco Goncalves
Yes, Bill, the weakness in demand is actually a lot more driven by high interest rates. It's very interesting to see day after day after day the Fed officials going giving speeches and talking about how great things are and how so fixated they are that the economy is doing well and all things are great. And then they go to 25 basis points to the continued to keep interest rates. I'll let let me tell you what happens in real life area alive, a consumer that has a so let's call of suburban that's five years old and he wants to replace with new suburban. Yes, it goes to the dealer and the price decks higher, not because of steel because in five years is still did not change, but the car prices doubled in five years. So that's number one. And number two because no, by almost nobody really pays the price tag of cash, the finance. So he is going strong, a hub, a payment plan that has like 1.52% interest rate to a payment plan to have a 7.578% interest rate. And then the deal it does in our case, we usually don't increase your payment plan. U.k. I can't give you this Equinox here and sorry, instead of this will book will have a brand new Equinox. And the guy says thank you very much. I'll keep my car and that's how cars don't move at. The dealer is not easy against. I see, though the beautiful congresses, Sun about money. So about interest rates and people are employed because companies are afraid to let people go because we went through how to hire people recently. So what the situation is a lot more complicated than it looks like on television, guess what interest rates need to come down. What I explained for automotive also works for houses. People don't sell their house because they have low interest rates much case. And if they tried to sell, nobody would buy the house. And if they tried to buy, they will be confronted with very high interest rates mortgage. So I'll give up a minute for people in the call to think about what I'm saying and think about your on situation, you would like to go to a higher a better house. But you know what? My what which is good. If I go into this, I'm not sure I'm going to sell my house and I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to afford the new mortgage debt swap interest, high interest rates do for the company for the country, just because people what the 2% target to be achieved. We are in good shape. It's time to bring interest rate down and it's time to get consumed consumers going again, once this is done, the weakness of the market goes away very quickly.
Bill Peterson
Yes. No, thanks for that color. And I tried to 10-year-old car for those reasons. But on my next question is actually on your infrastructure and we brought this up there in the past, and it feels like in the infrastructure related projects still seem to be continually delayed. But when we think this may not be as interest rate sensitive, are you seeing any signs there? And maybe more broadly, can you speak to what you're seeing in the plate market?
Lourenco Goncalves
The infrastructural projects they have to problem to have. one is red tape, particularly between the degree on what federal into what's local. And the second one is that in our ability to finance sticks, so because interest rates are high. So that's also affecting the big ticket items. I was using the consumer because in our day-to-day business here, that's what we deal with a lot more because we're a lot more in light flat-rolled than in plate, but FX played through the big ticket ticket items. We see projects being delayed because money is expensive, this should be corrected next year as well. So that's what we expect those. Yes, thanks for that.
Bill Peterson
Thanks for the color. Good luck.
Lourenco Goncalves
Thanks. Thanks, Bill. Thank you.
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Alex Hacking with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.
Alex Hacking
Yes, thanks. I just have one follow-up question for itself. So on your commentary on the 4Q volume, if I heard correct, maybe I misunderstood you said that shipments should be flattish, including Stelco, but two thirds of the quarter and Stelco should be around 400,000 tons. So that seems awfully low. I just wanted to double check that. Thank you.
Celso Goncalves
Yes, no, that's right, Alex. It will be the Stelco. The benefit that we're getting from Stelco from a volume standpoint kind of makes up from for the volume loss for having six down so quarter over quarter, Q3 into Q4 on volume should be around the same level, Alex, this year, we're going to have Thanksgiving, November and the holiday season between December 25th on December 31st. So, it's a long time is Q4 last year in the queue to $4.1 million tons, Q. three was $4.1 million tones in Q4 was for So Q4 is always less. So, when you say that it will be around the same, it means to be higher RELX. Okay. Thank you. And thanks for the clarification. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd now like to hand the call back over to Lorenzo Gonzalez for closing comments.
Alex Hacking
Very good. Thank you very much for everybody.
Operator
That's here in the of Dell EMC here on my screen that as well, more analysts in the queue for us. So yes, I can get the question,
Chris Lafond
Chris. Chris Lafond from Jefferies. Hey, guys. Yes, sorry, did I answer the way thanks for taking my question. At the end here, unless I just wanted to ask on the number six blast furnace that we have a pretty strong demand recovery, not saying 2020 fives. How long does it take to bring that back on line? What are the cost to bring it back online and which sort of pricing environment do you need to see before you would make that decision?
Lourenco Goncalves
Chris, we will bring the six back as soon as possible. As soon as the demand comes back, demand will come back when prices recover. So it's all interconnected. And I believe that that will happen in terms of price recovery early in the year, early in 2025.
Chris Lafond
So, I expect I fully expect it to go to bring a six back sometime early next year.
Lourenco Goncalves
Yes, if you just think, Chris, from a there's a lot of potential catalysts that are brewing in the market that could be a benefit here in the short term, right? Obviously, we started to see interest rates come down. We're going to get not this week on many key onshoring will lead to demand. Imports are current currently unattractive. There's potential for increased trade protection. You're going to see a lot of demand from the CHIPS Act and IRA, the auto industry eventually will rebound. So those are the things that we're kind of keeping an eye on. But as soon as we see more green shoots, we'll think about what we do from a from a footprint standpoint and bring bringing back the one point about the demand recover depending on on how the who's going to be the President of United States. I anticipate a a lot more actions in terms of protecting the domestic market. I guess, the ones that the act to consume concerted effort to destroyed. And I'm talking about some that are already operating here inside the United States and some of it as one of these that are not going to be able to come in. So I'm very excited, very bullish about 2025. Chris. Sounds good. Thanks, mathematically, if you and good luck. Thank you. Yet. And we'll then maybe one more point on that. We'll, you know, as soon as things start to pick up, we're going to see a more immediate impact now obviously, now that we Instalco, just yes, that's a good point. That's a good point that now that you have a smaller boat to maneuver instead of the carrier, that's Cleveland-Cliffs, we're going to see impacts going through the numbers a lot quicker. So that's actually I actually have a very important point.
Operator
Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Philip Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Please proceed with your questions.
Philip Gibbs
Good morning. Part of your I thought I had one by actually, why was there a as or increase I saw your name popping up on screen. So go ahead, please. Thank you. Thank you, Tom. Regarding the synergies with the Stelco acquisition, how should we think about those building up over the next few a few quarters?
Celso Goncalves
Yes, we are we have full conviction on the $120 million at year one that you just gave to you because we are starting to be inside the house now because there are some things because of very ethical, we did not address anything related to commercial until after we close just layer no different from other companies that they blurred the lines, they go blow up. Everything that we know as rules of M&A. And they don't you stood on close anything. We will do everything by the book. So anyway, we're starting to see real opportunities over there. So, there was I would say that the $120 million of synergies pretty conservative. So, year one, and we'll start to see right away. Thank you. Onno go has sorry, I thought I was going to say yes, we'll probably update the synergy number in the next call. We didn't want to do it here just since we just closed the new on Friday. But we feel really, really, really good about the one 20, and we'll look to give you guys an updated number, which will likely be higher on the next call from a cost synergy standpoint. And as Lorenzo mentioned, that doesn't even take into account any sort of commercial opportunities that we're starting only starting now to identify were going over to John to Canada tomorrow, and we'll deal with the team.
So we're really excited about getting going. Thank you. And then on the on the larger scale projects you have over the next few years, particularly at Middletown and to lesser extent, Butler, I know that there's some grant money associated with those projects. Have you received any of that? And what are the expectations in terms of the flow to you for those funds? So, we already received the first installment related to the buffer and the middle term projects. And it's ongoing and it's on schedule. Don't have the schedule in front of me right now feel, but we are absolutely on schedule on that. And then lastly for me, just on the map on the macro side, certainly mentioned some auto headwinds in the quarter, up from two specific customers on a high level. But any way to any way to frame up how much your auto business was either impacted versus the second quarter or the third quarter of last year? When I know the third quarter similar to last year was pretty strong hand of the work stoppage. Yes, look, we are now going to give you the specifics for clients because it does not be right. But you know, the good thing is that the customers that we have maintained our full volumes or slightly increase because of new models are the ones that are performing far better than the customers that are taking. Yes, less tons from US store. And even those folks, they are coming back and they're coming back very quickly. So, we even with that, we believe that the future will be better for us in terms of what you saw in Q3, our Q3 performance in automotive was not good. We totally understand that you're going to get better, and that's what I can tell you without giving any specific numbers.
But directionally, you got the victory. I'm sure they're going to be able to model on you and your work. Thanks, Lilly USA. Okay.
Thanks. Yes, it's zero for now. As the best start since the 76, 77 season. This will win in New Orleans. Tomorrow will be the best in history and look at Jersey, we are there, and we are proud to be there. one last thing before we adjourn go out and vote is the most important thing and American can do. It's time to do. It is time to go forward in this great country of ours and make sure that the next four years will be much better than that. Yes, eight, no matter who it was Trump or Biden. We need to keep going forward. We are the envy of the world. You know, we need to fulfill our duty as the leader of the free world.
Operator
Thanks a lot and go USA, Bina.
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and enjoy the rest of your day. We are or we are. Okay.