Results: Kontron AG Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

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Kontron AG (ETR:SANT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.5% to €16.70 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €780m, statutory earnings beat expectations 7.0%, with Kontron reporting profits of €0.61 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Kontron

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kontron's seven analysts is for revenues of €1.89b in 2024. This reflects a major 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 15% to €1.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.49 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €30.42. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kontron at €36.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €26.46. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Kontron's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 58% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Kontron is expected to grow much faster than its industry.