Shareholders of Rieter Holding AG (VTX:RIEN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to CHF113 following its latest annual results. Rieter Holding reported CHF1.4b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CHF16.47 beat expectations, being 8.0% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Rieter Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the four analysts covering Rieter Holding provided consensus estimates of CHF1.03b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a disturbing 27% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 71% to CHF4.70 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF1.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF5.05 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CHF103, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Rieter Holding at CHF111 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF93.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Rieter Holding is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rieter Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 27% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Rieter Holding's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.