Some inflation is good, since it indicates strong demand for products after the forced misery of a pandemic year stuck at home. But certain types of inflation should scare politicians.

The rising cost of gasoline is one of them. Gas prices have an outsized impact on consumer psyches, since drivers see the price in foot-high numbers everywhere they go and count the drain as their wallets shrink. The higher cost of getting around somehow cramps Americans’ sense of independence, souring them on whoever happens to be in charge.

Gas prices now average around $3.15 per gallon nationally, about a dollar more than they were a year ago. That’s not terrible. Gas prices were artificially depressed last year, since everybody stopped moving. And $3.15 is only about 20 cents higher than the average during the last 10 years.

Next year could be the problem, however. Bank of America recently predicted that oil prices could hit $100 per barrel in 2022, for a number of reasons, including pent-up demand for travel, people shying away from mass transit, and social and regulatory pressure to emit less carbon. “Demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up,” BofA analysts conclude.

Oil at $100 could equate to gas prices close to $4 per gallon. The last time oil hit $100, in 2014, gas prices peaked at $3.75. The record high for gas prices, $4.17, came when oil hit $145 in the summer of 2008. The price correlation between and oil and gasoline has changed a bit, and not in a way that favors consumers. Most states have raised gas taxes, and refiners face new rules that add cost. There’s also a shortage of drivers for the trucks that deliver gas to filling stations, another cost booster. “One-hundred-dollar oil today could get us close to the $4 per gallon mark,” says petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy.

Blaming Biden for rise in gas prices

The $4 threshold is an unmistakable pain point for drivers—though many may not care too much this summer, when they’re happy to be free to hit the road. As with other things that have gotten more expensive, consumers who have been saving money and awaiting their Covid vaccines may pay without remorse, grateful for the freedom to leave home.

Consumers have short memories, however, and a sustained boost to gas prices would pose two threats to President Biden and his fellow Democrats. The first involves the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats will have a tough time holding onto their narrow majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Biden has solid approval ratings now, with Covid vaccines and a recovering economy boosting confidence. But 12 or 15 months from now, vaccine euphoria may be over.