It's been a pretty great week for Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ:BSRR) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$30.20 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$38m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Sierra Bancorp surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.71 per share, a notable 18% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Sierra Bancorp

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Sierra Bancorp are now predicting revenues of US$152.1m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 11% to US$2.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$148.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.50 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Sierra Bancorp's future following the latest results, with a solid gain to the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Sierra Bancorp 30% to US$29.63on the back of these upgrades. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sierra Bancorp at US$33.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$27.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Sierra Bancorp is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Sierra Bancorp's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.3% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Sierra Bancorp to grow faster than the wider industry.