Sime Darby Berhad (KLSE:SIME) shareholders have earned a 9.8% CAGR over the last three years

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By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, Sime Darby Berhad (KLSE:SIME) shareholders have seen the share price rise 11% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (3.8%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 11% in the last year , including dividends .

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

View our latest analysis for Sime Darby Berhad

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Sime Darby Berhad achieved compound earnings per share growth of 26% per year. The average annual share price increase of 4% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. We'd venture the lowish P/E ratio of 9.94 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
KLSE:SIME Earnings Per Share Growth January 22nd 2024

We know that Sime Darby Berhad has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Sime Darby Berhad will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Sime Darby Berhad, it has a TSR of 32% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Sime Darby Berhad shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Sime Darby Berhad is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...