Small Caps Post Biggest Election-Night Move as Votes Roll In

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(Bloomberg) -- US equity futures climbed to session highs on Tuesday as polls closed in key states, with the riskiest parts of the stock market posting the biggest swings.

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Futures on the small-cap Russell 2000 Index advanced as much as 3.6% as of 10:02 p.m. in New York, before paring the rally to 2.5%. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index rose 1.2%, while futures on the Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 1.3%.

Although investors said it was premature to place any definitive bets on the election outcome, small caps advanced as Republican nominee Donald Trump jumped out to an early Electoral College lead over Democrat Kamala Harris. The companies, which largely have domestic operations, stand to benefit more from a Trump victory, given his strong protectionist stance.

“Traders have been in and out of the Trump/Harris trade for the last number of weeks,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. “An unwind could come swiftly, and you don’t want to be on the wrong side — better to wait for more announcements particularly Michigan/Pennsylvania.”

The rally in small-cap futures builds on gains in the cash index during the day, with the Russell 2000 Index climbing 1.9% in its best session in three weeks. The gauge is still trailing the S&P 500 this year.

Here’s what Wall Street investors and other market watchers had to say as the results continued to come in on Tuesday night in New York.

Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services:

“It’s still very early and I expect we could see some wide swings in both directions. That said, on a short-term basis, several of the betting sites show a steep upswing in former President Trump‘s odds of winning as early voting results get tabulated. Consequently, we see some of the perceived Trump trades such as small caps, crypto currencies, interest rates and even Trump media having a boost right now. Still, we have a long night.”

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments:

“This is still a jump ball either way for the election. Anything can happen. I don’t think the rally in small caps overnight so far actually has anything to do with betting on either a Trump or Harris win despite what some may argue about their policy goals. Many traders are starting to look past the election on expectations that we’ll get a result one way or another sooner rather than later, with Wall Street still ending up with an economy that’s strong, inflation coming down and the Fed set to cut rates once again. That still benefits the riskiest corners of the market like small caps that have taken a beating from higher rates in recent years.”