Starbucks Serves Up a Cold Q4. Is the Turnaround Still Alive?

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Investors in Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) knew that the arrival of Brian Niccol, the former star CEO of Chipotle, in the corner office wouldn't magically fix the business. Still, they were unprepared for how bad Starbucks' performance was in the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Sept. 29.

The coffee chain dumped its preliminary results on investors a week earlier, clearing the air before the full report next Wednesday. The stock fell 4.2% after hours on Tuesday as the numbers were ugly across the board.

Comparable-store sales (comps) fell 7% globally and were down 6% in the U.S. on a 10% decline in comparable transactions. Its collapse in China continued as well with comps down 14% in its No. 2 market.

Overall revenue fell 3% to $9.1 billion, missing the consensus at $9.38 billion. Its bottom-line results were also woeful, as adjusted earnings per share dropped 24% to $0.80, also well below estimates at $1.03.

Management didn't make excuses, acknowledging that investments in expanded product offerings, in-app promotions, and integrated marketing didn't "improve customer behaviors." It also said that traffic among both Starbucks Rewards and non-Rewards customers was weak.

Meanwhile, in China, it faulted intensifying competition and a weak macro environment for the poor performance.

Starbucks also pulled its guidance for fiscal 2025, a sign that the recovery may take longer and is more uncertain than expected. Management said that the move "will allow ample opportunity to complete an assessment of the business and solidify key strategies."

That statement indicates that fiscal 2025 could be a lost year for Starbucks as well, and based on the fourth-quarter results, investors should expect continued headwinds through at least the first half of fiscal 2025.

A woman getting a coffee pickup order.
Image source: Getty Images.

Is the turnaround in jeopardy?

Starbucks surged 24.5% when Niccol was announced as the new CEO, a credit to his success with Chipotle. It's rare to see a stock jump so much on a CEO change, but Starbucks has been struggling for several quarters, and investors are hopeful that Niccol can repeat the performance he achieved at Chipotle, which was struggling in the aftermath of the E. coli outbreak.

However, Starbucks seems to be more structurally challenged than Chipotle was when Niccol took over the burrito chain, and it's a more complex, global business.

He addressed investors in a brief video that accompanied the report, reasserting his commitment to fixing the U.S. business, which includes giving baristas the support that they need, simplifying the menu, streamlining the order and pickup process, appealing to both Rewards and non-Rewards members, and getting back to the coffeehouse atmosphere the brand is known for.