It was a mixed picture on Wall Street as investors digested earnings from AI darling Nvidia (NVDA), which disappointed Wall Street's sky-high expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained more than 200 points to finish the session at a new all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) erased earlier gains to drop about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed flat on the heels of losses for all three gauges.

It hasn't been a great time for folks in the business of predicting recessions.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index signaled a recession in 2022. The highly regarded inverted yield curve recession indicator has been activated since November 2022. Even the commonly accepted layperson's definition of recession — two negative quarters of GDP — occurred in 2022. Most recently, the Sahm Rule, which measures short-term rises in unemployment, triggered its recession red flag in early August.

But as many economists will tell you, the US isn't and hasn't been in recession.

The creators of all these measures say this time may be different — their indicators could be, and have been, showing false positives. And the notable distortions to economic data from a global pandemic have unquestionably made the prediction business harder.

But the latest failures also reveal a harsh truth about the recession prediction game: Recession indicators aren't perfect, and they likely never will be.

Just ask one of the most prominent recession indicator creators.

"The economy is so complex that ... it's unlikely that we get the perfect indicator," Duke University professor and Canadian economist Campbell Harvey, who invented the inverted yield curve indicator, told Yahoo Finance.

Read more here.

Dollar General (DG) stock is down about 30% on Thursday as the company slashed its sales guidance for the year and CEO Todd Vasos said the "lower-end consumer continues to be very much financially strapped."

But a closer look around the retail space shows that not all value retailers are hurting from consumers who are more cautious with their dollars. As Bloomberg quantitative researcher Steve Hou pointed out on X, while Dollar General and Dollar Tree have struggled amid an environment where it appears consumers may be trading down, Walmart and Costco have blossomed.

Walmart shares are up more than 44% this year, while Costco has risen over 35%. Both stocks are trading near all-time highs.

Hou reasoned on X that this divergence sums up the current market narrative, which feels particularly on point when thinking about the consumer, "The big & well-managed are doing better than ever and getting insane valuations while the smaller & less well-managed are getting crushed left and right," Hou wrote.

Affirm (AFRM) shares rose more than 35% on Thursday afternoon after the buy now, pay later company said Wednesday it will likely reach profitability faster than previously expected.

Affirm now expects to be profitable by the fourth quarter of the next fiscal year. The announcement came alongside an earnings report that soared past Wall Street's expectations.

In the prior quarter, Affirm posted revenue of $659.2 million, above expectations for about $603 million in revenue. Affirm also announced a loss per share of $0.14, narrower than the $0.48 analysts had expected.

Even with Thursday's surge, the stock is still down about 13% this year and well off its peak in 2021 when the stock was more than $160 per share.

Nvidia's (NVDA) growth metrics aren't impressing Wall Street like they used to.

Nvidia reported earnings on Wednesday which showed the company's earnings and revenue grew more than 100% from the prior year. But it also marked the company's slowest year-over-year revenue growth in a year, 122%, and the rate of growth compared to the prior year was less than half what Nvidia reported in the first two calendar quarters of 2024.

Shares were down nearly 4% Thursday afternoon.

And this growth slowdown, D.A. Davidson managing director Gil Luria told Yahoo Finance, is the chief concern with the stock right now and why he maintains a Neutral rating on the AI juggernaut.

"Next year we're going to have, at the very least, decelerating growth and possibly at some point, revenue declines," Luria said.

"Where if you look at consensus estimates, sell-side estimates, they are for the growth to continue at very, very high rates that are very hard to justify considering Nvidia's revenue is these other companies' margins."

At some point, Luria argued, the big tech hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), and Meta (META) are going to slow their spending. And given they represent the lion's share of Nvidia's current AI chip sales, that'd likely be a headwind to future revenue growth.

"The estimates for next year and the year after that are starting to get way, way out of control," Luria said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained more than 350 points to touch a new record high during midday trading, while the other major averages also rose.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) outperformed to rise more than 1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) increased 0.8%.

The overall markets rose without the participation of AI chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA). The stock failed to move higher despite a strong quarterly print. Shares of Nvidia fell by more than 3% on Thursday.

However, the rest of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks rose during the session, along with Industrials (XLI) and Energy (XLE)-related stocks.

Energy-related stocks rose on Thursday with the S&P 500 XLE (XLE) up almost 1% as oil prices surged.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Libya's halt on oil production sent crude futures up more than 2% during the session.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) rose to trade above $76 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, increased almost 2% to exchange hands near $79 per barrel.

Best Buy (BBY) shares soared 17% on Thursday after the retailer posted better-than expected results following a series of disappointing quarters.

Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports:

On Thursday, the electronics chain reported revenue of $9.29 billion, compared to estimates of $9.24 billion. Adjusted earnings per share jumped 10% year over year to $1.34, more than the $1.16 anticipated.

CEO Corie Barry said in the release that the numbers are a result of Best Buy's focus on "sharpening" the customer experiences and market positioning, while "expanding our non-GAAP operating income rate in the current environment."

She added that customers are "seeking value and sales events," but also "willing to spend on high price point products when they need to or when there is new compelling technology."

Read more here.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares dipped 2% in early trading while the rest of the semiconductor space mostly rose on Thursday, helping lift the Nasdaq.

Nvidia's quarter was strong but it didn't live up to exceptionally high Wall Street expectations. Shares dropped as much as 6% soon after the company released its quarterly results on Wednesday, but pared most of that decline by the open.

Many on Wall Street remained positive on Nvidia following the results, pointing out the strong quarter and mostly brushing off uncertainty surrounding the ramp-up of Nvidia's next-generation chip Blackwell.

"We cover the stock very, very closely. Blackwell is not a concern. If anything it's extremely bullish," Beth Kindig, I/O Fund lead tech analyst, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning.

"Now the valuation when you have a high flyer like Nvidia can get stretched sometimes. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy," she added.

US stocks gained on Thursday, with the Dow leading the advance after Nvidia's (NVDA) strong quarterly results failed to impress investors and the latest GDP data showed the US economy grew more than expected last quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.7% to eye a return to setting record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up roughly 0.3% on the heels of losses for all three gauges.

Nvidia shares fell slightly after the AI chip heavyweight posted better-than-expected results but still failed to impress investors.

The stock had fallen as much as 6% in pre-market trading but regained much of those losses by the open. Shares fell roughly 2% in early trading.

Meanwhile, the US economy grew at a stronger pace than expected in the second quarter, according to the latest gross domestic product print released on Thursday morning. GDP increased 3% on an annualized basis for the three-month period, up from a prior reading of 2.8%,

Dollar General (DG) shares tanked 25% in pre-market on Thursday after the low-cost retailer cut its full-year outlook and partially blamed softer sales in the second quarter on "financially constrained" customers.

Dollar General posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, versus expectations of $1.79, alongside revenue of $10.21 billion, just under the $10.36 billion expected by Wall Street.

The company has been undergoing a "Back to Basics" improvement plan at the helm of CEO Todd Vasos, who returned to Dollar General last year.

The latest quarterly results highlighted pressure on the lower-income consumer.

“While we believe the softer sales trends are partially attributable to a core customer who feels financially constrained, we know the importance of controlling what we can control," the company said in its earnings release.

"With the evolving retail and consumer landscape in mind, we are taking decisive action to further enhance our value and convenience offering, as well as the in-store experience for our associates and customers."

Mixed quarter at best for computer and printer giant HP Inc (HPQ).

The company continued to see pressure in its printing business, in part because of the ongoing work-from-home dynamic. Meanwhile, the AI PC ramp has yet to take hold and remains a lot of hype.

"HPQ results held signs of a PC market recovery in the strength of the Commercial PS segment being enough to offset the weaker revenue outcomes in Consumer PS as well as Print to deliver modestly better revenue in F3Q. However, the macro headwinds are driving softer results in the other segments, which is in turn is impacting margins, and leading to a modest moderation in the earnings outlook for F4Q and FY24 relative to prior expectations," said JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee in a client note.

I caught up with HP CEO Enrique Lores last night. You can watch part of that chat below. Take note of what Lores said about the spread and impact of AI. I think a lot of cost-cutting is coming to corporate America next year because of AI, and we are seeing signs of it already (check out the mass layoffs recently announced at TurboTax seller Intuit (INTU)).

Nvidia (NVDA) shares are getting hit pre-market as the quarter didn't live up to super high Wall Street expectations.

But the earnings call sure did, I think. There was no indication from the call that demand is slowing, actually quite the contrary. Everything Nvidia talked about suggested a further acceleration in demand for its high-powered AI chips.

That said, I am seeing the Street tweak estimates this morning amid higher expenses related to the production ramp for Blackwell chips.

Good points here by Ruben Roy over at Stifel:

Salesforce (CRM) shares are on the move higher following a comeback quarter after the close.

I caught up with Salesforce chairman and CEO Marc Benioff and came away very interested in the company's new "agents" that it will begin deploying within companies. These will basically be AI-powered robots that interact with humans to, say, close deals and upsell.

Interestingly, Salesforce will charge clients per conversation for the product — which could add up to real money.

Here is my full chat with Benioff following his earnings call last night.