Hamza Shaban
Stock market today: S&P 500 closes above 5,000 for first time ever
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Wall Street celebrated another record close on Friday as the benchmark S&P 500 index ended above 5,000 for the first time ever.
The record-setting session came as investors applauded a revision of December inflation data that showed it was even lower than first reported. Waves of well-received quarterly earnings also buoyed stocks, with big names in tech powering a huge chunk of market gains.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.5% to close at 5,027. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped roughly 0.1% or 60 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way higher, gaining 1.3%.
Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) have produced a roughly 20% return to start the year, per analysis from Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre. The returns from these four names alone account for around 70% of the S&P 500's gain this year.
Earnings did most of the talking this week as investors were left with few broad economic updates. But they have been driving shifts in market direction thanks to their importance to the Federal Reserve's thinking on policy. Fed officials have stressed they're taking the time to check price pressures really are cooling before making any interest rate cuts.
Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
PepsiCo (PEP) results took center stage on Friday as the pace of corporate earnings starts to slacken. Shares slipped more than 3% after the soda and snacks giant's sales missed Wall Street estimates amid price hikes.
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S&P closes above 5,000 in historic first
The benchmark S&P 500 index closed above 5,000 for the first time.
The record-setting session came as investors embraced a revision to December inflation data that showed it was even lower than first reported. Corporate earnings that were largely well received also lifted stocks.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.5% to close at 5,027. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped roughly 0.1% or 60 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way higher, gaining 1.3%.
A look at the week ahead
Coca-Cola (COKE), Coinbase (COIN), and Roku (ROKU) are among the major names to report next week, pushing through an earnings season that has largely pleased investors as the market chases new highs. But even solid reports that have met their marks the past quarter have fallen short as shareholders fixate on outlooks to get them through another season of interest rate and geopolitical uncertainty.
Another round of inflation data will inform Fed officials as they seek further confirmation that their tightening campaign is strong enough to keep price pressures down. Fed Chair Powell has effectively ended public expectations of a March rate cut. But Tuesday's CPI report could bolster the case for an easing policy change in May.
Meanwhile, retail sales data will offer a glimpse into the spending power of American consumers, an integral part of the economic rebound. But bearish forecasts have been on the lookout for signs of weakening.
Investors and and policymakers will be on the lookout for the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. How consumers view their own personal finances and the broader economy versus the narratives spun out of economic data has been a hotly contested topic in recent months. Consumer optimism will play even greater importance as the US presidential election approaches.
Perhaps just months away from the first round of interest rate cuts, fresh readings on housing starts will flash a glimpse of how the 2024 housing market is developing.
Yahoo Finance's Brent Sanchez has a graphical breakdown of what to watch next week:
Big Tech is taking the spoils of the ad resurgence
The companies that measure their market caps in the trillions are the ones reaping the rewards of the advertising rebound of 2024, leaving much of the legacy media and even tech's smaller players out of the comeback story.
This year Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Meta (META), the top two companies in the digital ads market, are expected to haul in more than $140 billion, according to forecasts by Insider Intelligence. The duo is on track to once again claim nearly half of all digital ads revenue. Even as brands spend their way out of a multiyear ad slump, it's mega enterprises who will be feasting while mostly everyone else claws for scraps.
Where ad dollars flow underscores the selectiveness of the recovery. Amazon last week reported its ads business swelled 27% year over year. While the company sits in third place in the digital ads market, Amazon is poised to gobble even greater share. It's in the early stages of converting an untapped Prime Video streaming service into an ad platform with a massive, built-in audience.
Overall, worldwide digital ad spending is projected to increase 13.2% this year, the data shows, compared to traditional media ad growth of 2.4%.
Smaller tech companies whose growth stories were tied to offering an alternative to the Big Tech ad platforms also showed weakness this quarter. Shares of Pinterest (PINS) fell more than 10% Friday after its first quarter revenue forecast came in slightly below expectations. The weaker outlook flashed another warning sign for investors looking for alternatives to Meta and Google. Wall Street also punished Snap (SNAP) this weak for relatively meager revenue growth of 5%.
Meanwhile, companies that rely on linear networks to sell advertising are also showing weakness, according to earnings reports this week. Linear network revenue at Disney (DIS) fell 12% year over year. Fox's (FOX) ad revenue tumbled 20% versus the prior-year period. And AMC Networks saw a 23% drop for the quarter in US advertising versus last year.
Nividia set to overtake Amazon as fourth-most-valuable US company
Nvidia (NVDA) shareholders continue to pile in as the excitement around AI advancements and the chips needed to power them lift the stock to new highs, knocking down some tech giants along the way.
As of afternoon trading on Friday, Nvidia's market cap was on the verge of surpassing that of Amazon's, rising to $1.77 trillion, just below the e-commerce giant's value of $1.8 trillion.
The stock has risen more than 50% so far this year, placing it within striking distance of becoming the fourth-most-valuable US company.
Wall Street fueled the Nvidia rally further on Friday following a Reuters story, pushing shares up 2%. The report revealed the company is building a new business unit focused on designing custom chips for cloud computing firms and AI processors, citing sources familiar with the company's plans.
Nvidia aims to capture the exploding demand around AI chips and to protect its market share as US tech giants scramble to develop their own in-house hardware, which would lower their reliance on the AI king.
While some analysts have expressed caution at Nvidia's staggering climb, investors are bracing for the company to report quarterly earnings later this month. Big Tech's earnings this quarter have prompted mixed reactions, but for Meta and Amazon, the clear winners, Wall Street applauded their performance in part on their AI ambitions.
Stocks trending in afternoon trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during afternoon trading on Friday:
Nvidia (NVDA): Shares of the AI chipmaker rose 3% Friday afternoon following a Reuters report that revealed the company is building a new business unit focused on designing custom chips for cloud computing firms and AI processors. Nvidia is also chasing the market cap of Amazon (AMZN), and is on a course to become the fourth-most-valuable US company.
Moderna (MRNA): The biotech company fell more than 6% after analysts raised concerns that rival vaccine makers showed better results for the efficacy of their experimental respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine. TD Cowen and UBS said new data raised questions that Moderna's vaccine could show a steeper decline when compared with other shots from GSK and Pfizer.
Cloudflare (NET): The network services and cloud cybersecurity company climbed more than 21% Friday afternoon after it released its fourth quarter earnings with revenue at $362.5 million for the quarter, an increase of 32% compared to last year. The company also forecast a first quarter revenue range of $372.5 million to $373.5 million that beat Wall Street expectations.
PepsiCo (PEP): The beverage and snack giant fell more than 2% after reporting fourth quarter earnings that topped analyst estimates but failed to meet expectations for revenue.
Stocks rise in afternoon trading as the S&P heads for a record 5,000
Wall Street inched closer to a record finish Friday afternoon, pushing the S&P above 5,000 for the first time as investors applauded a lowered revision to inflation data.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped roughly 0.3% or 100 points, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way higher, gaining 1%.
Boosting global chip manufacturing? That'll be $7 trillion.
The Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is hot on the fundraising trail, courting governments in the Middle East, among others, for a venture focused on making the chips needed to fulfill his vision of the AI revolution.
And to call this vision "capital intensive" is an undersell.
The Journal reports Altman sees the project needing to raise up to $7 trillion.
Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and Pitchbook (via the Financial Times) suggest that at the end of last year there was a bit less than $3 trillion in "dry powder" — or money committed, but not yet deployed — available across the entire universe of private equity and venture capital funds.
Of course, Altman's discussion with oil-rich governments looking for new ways to invest these winnings shows a clear awareness that these lofty ambitions will require an entrepreneur to think bigger than two now-entrenched sources of institutional capital looking for uncorrelated returns under the ever-broadening umbrella of alternative assets.
And this dry powder napkin math — about $2.6 trillion sits in PE, closer to $300 billion in VC — also leaves out the rise of private credit, balance sheet funded investments some firms could explore, and all kinds of other arrangements global power brokers can use to get money where needed. Tax efficiently, of course.
But about a year and half into the AI boom that has captivated investors and the corporate world, the discussion from the industry's leaders about what will be required for this technology to meet its full potential is rising in grandiosity commensurately with the market value of our first-round winners like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD), and others.
Good old-fashioned stock market investors might take comfort in Josh Schafer's reporting that heavy concentration in a few names doesn't spell doom for the market overall. After all, there are hundreds — 493 to be precise — of other companies and industries that can pick up the slack from these leaders as the economic cycle makes its rounds.
Outside the relatively staid world of megacap stocks, however, the ambitions being tied to the rise of AI view the upper bound of potential as, well, artificial.
AMC Networks sees 23% drop in US advertising
AMC Networks (AMCX) reported fourth quarter earnings before the bell on Friday that missed expectations while revenue came in slightly ahead of estimates, according to Bloomberg consensus data.
But it was ad revenue for the company — which owns streaming platform AMC+ and is home to popular shows like "The Walking Dead," "Breaking Bad," and "Better Call Saul" — that emerged as the standout metric of the report.
US ad revenue sank 23% year over year to $158 million amid "anticipated linear ratings declines, a challenging ad market and fewer original programming episodes within the quarter." This follows an 18% decline in Q3, a 17% drop in Q2, and a decrease of 20% in the first quarter.
Affiliate revenues, meanwhile, declined 16% "due to basic subscriber declines, including the 4% revenue impact of a strategic non-renewal that occurred at the end of 2022."
"We see the biggest risk factors as advertising performance and content amortization as AMCX does have a number of new originals in 2024," Wells Fargo analyst Steve Cahall wrote in reaction to the report.
The stock tumbled 20% on Friday following the report.
Ad revenue continues to be a pain point for companies with linear network exposure.
As Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban pointed out in Friday's "Morning Brief," Big Tech is reaping the benefits of 2024's ad rebound — with legacy media falling behind.
Linear network revenue at Disney (DIS) fell 12% year over year to $2.8 billion, while operating income for linear came in at $1.2 billion, a decline of 7%. The declines come despite the company posting a significant earnings beat, coupled with a slew of flashy announcements.
Fox (FOX), meanwhile, saw ad revenue tumble 20% versus the prior-year period. To note, ad revenue makes up about half of the media giant's total sales.
Stocks trending in morning trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during morning trading on Friday:
Cloudflare (NET): The network services and cloud cybersecurity company continues to climb on Friday morning after the company released its fourth quarter earnings with revenue at $362.5 million for the quarter, an increase of 32% compared to last year. The company also forecast a first quarter revenue range of $372.5 million to $373.5 million that beat Wall Street expectations.
Pinterest (PINS): Shares fell more than 10% Friday after its first quarter revenue forecast came in slightly below expectations. The weaker outlook flashed a warning sign to investors as other smaller tech companies struggle for market share against the giants Google and Meta.
PepsiCo (PEP): The beverage and snack giant fell more than 3% after reporting fourth quarter earnings that topped analyst estimates but failed to meet expectations for revenue.
Expedia (EXPE): Shares tumbled almost 20% after the company said it expects revenue growth rates this year to moderate as air fares come down from their post-pandemic highs. Late Thursday the air travel firm company also said CEO Peter Kern will step down from his position and will be replaced by company insider Ariane Gorin.
Stocks open higher in the S&P's chase for a 5,000 close
Stocks opened mostly higher Friday morning, setting the S&P up for a close above 5,000, after December's inflation reading was revised even lower than initially thought.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped below the flatline, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way high, gaining 0.3%.