Hamza Shaban
Stock market today: Stocks slip for a second week as inflation data clouds rate-cut bets
In this article:
Stocks finished lower on Friday, notching a second consecutive losing week for Wall Street, as investors weighed the impact of hot inflation prints on the Federal Reserve's policy decision next week.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 0.5% or nearly 200 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) decreased close to 1%. All three major indexes lost ground for the week.
Stocks slipped further after Thursday's losses, which came as another hotter-than-expected inflation report spooked investors into rethinking bets on a June interest rate cut. The report supported concerns that "sticky" inflation could be more difficult to tame than the Fed had expected.
With no big data releases on Friday's docket, eyes are turning to the February PCE report — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — for more clarity on whether inflation is cooling as fast as the central bank wants. But that reading won't come until near the end of March, after the Fed's policy decision next week.
Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) pulled back further from its latest record high above $73,000 to $68,000 by the end of the normal trading day.
Elsewhere in corporates, Adobe (ADBE) shares fell around 14% after its downbeat quarterly sales forecast fueled worries about competition from AI startups. And Zillow (Z) tumbled 13% Friday, alongside other real estate names, after the National Association of Realtors reached a legal settlement that paves the way for home buyers and sellers to pay lower commissions.
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Stocks end the week in the red again ahead of Fed meeting
Sentiment on Wall Street soured as investors pulled back ahead of next week's Fed policy meeting.
While the market widely expects the central bank to start cutting rates later this year, recent inflation readings have pushed back those predictions, as the Fed is less likely to lower rates if inflation is not convincingly tempered.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 0.5% or close to 200 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) decreased nearly 1%. All three major indexes lost ground for the week. For the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, the close registered their second straight weekly loss.
A look at the week ahead
Fed week is almost here.
Officials at the central bank will huddle on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide the next course of action for interest rate setting. Market observers confidently predict that the Fed will keep rates steady, especially as recent inflation readings have revealed just how stubborn price pressures can be. But while the policy is unlikely to change, the conclusion of the meetings will bring new economic projections, revealing where key Fed officials see interest rates heading in the future.
Most Fed watchers believe interest rate cuts will arrive this year. But new data has complicated the timeline, as Fed officials wrestle with the risks of keeping rates elevated for too long and on the opposite end of starting an easing cycle too quickly, inviting inflation to creep back up.
On the corporate front, earnings season is winding down but several big names are set to post their quarterly reports. Nike (NKE), Chewy (CHWY), Lululemon (LULU), and FedEx (FDX) are among the the major companies to report next week, as Wall Street ends this week in a rough patch.
Yahoo Finance's Brent Sanchez has a graphical breakdown of what to watch next week:
Wall Street is over the Fed's waiting game
Wall Street has stopped waiting for the Fed. And investors should too.
In the months spent waiting for an inflation comedown, and then for the central bank to take the last step — cementing a soft landing with a rate cut — the market has pressed on.
Thursday's latest evidence of stubborn price pressures reinforced the view that the first rate cut won't arrive until the summer.
What investors considered March's all-but-promised interest rate cut became June's. And now, at least according to traders putting their money where their mouths are, a cut in July is almost as likely.
So far this year, economic data has vacillated between hot and cold from release to release, rendering a coherent narrative about the direction of inflation, consumer health, and GDP all but impossible. There is little to do but wait and see. And then wait and see again.
While officials are busy parsing new reams of data — often contradictory and on a lag — market players are forced to divine what comes next and to fill the information void with their own narratives.
For the central bank's critics, who are often just hungry for the market adrenaline of lower rates, a cautious approach to policy setting looks like paralysis, even though the officials are fulfilling their mandates. But an array of developments amid the rate cut wobbling highlights the limits of the Fed's influence and the market-moving power of other economic factors.
A surge beyond the “Magnificent Seven” (which is really the Magnificent Four) shows the strength of a broadening rally — with the Materials (XLB) and Financials (XLF) sectors joining the party of record highs usually reserved for the trillion-dollar elites. The recent success stories of Costco (COST) and Eli Lilly (LLY) can't be ignored either.
Of course, the recent market frenzy could be seen as a reaction to an eventual rate cut, forever priced in no matter how delayed it may be. Like the United captain saying that, sorry, there's another 30-minute delay before takeoff, waiting for just one more Fed meeting feels bearable — and keeps the hope of a cut at the top of the market's collective mind.
Almost no one expects a rate change on Wednesday, at the end of the Fed's policy meeting. More parsing and hedging will be on display, along with another invitation to wait. The release of new interest rate forecasts will unleash a fresh wave of speculation and a point of contrast for how much more dovish or hawkish officials have become.
But staring at dots can only reveal so much.
Stocks trending in afternoon trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during morning trading on Friday
Groupon (GRPN): The commerce company plummeted more than 30% Friday after reporting fourth quarter revenue that fell short of expectations. The tough quarter and dramatic selloff comes as Groupon undergoes a restructuring to boost its financial performance.
Jabil (JBL): The global manufacturer tumbled 15% Friday afternoon after the company lowered its guidance for fiscal 2024 from $31 billion in revenue to $28.5 billion. Jabil executives said that it expects revenue headwinds to be short-term. The company also said it expects to complete the $2 billion divestiture of its mobility business by the the third quarter of fiscal year.
Adobe (ADBE): Shares of the software company sank nearly 14% after posting first quarter earnings with a weaker-than-expected sales forecast. The softer outlook overshadowed a beat on revenue, which came in at $5.18 billion compared to an expected $5.14 billion. While the company announced plans to introduce artificial intelligence features, demand for the remainder of the year threw consumers' interest in the AI products into question.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): The dominant cryptocurrency showed once again the volatility of the market. After bitcoin broke past $70,000, achieving record highs earlier this week, the price of the token abruptly tumbled to around $68,000, sending other popular digital currencies and crypto industry companies down with it.
Zillow stock sinks 14% after realtor settlement paves way for lower commissions
Shares of Zillow (Z) sank as much as 14% Friday alongside other real estate names after the National Association of Realtors reached a legal settlement that paves the way for home buyers and sellers to pay lower commissions.
The NAR reached a nationwide settlement of claims that the industry conspired to boost agents' commissions, the organization said on Friday. If the settlement gets approval by a federal court, it will usher changes to the way consumers buy and sell homes.
Real estate names slid on the heels of the NAR's groundbreaking settlement. Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS), Compass (COMP), and Redfin (RDFN) declined as much as 15%, 11%, and 5%, respectively.
The NAR said it will pay $418 million over the next four years to end litigation.
As part of the settlement, the NAR said it would, "put in place a new MLS rule prohibiting offers of broker compensation on the MLS," ending rules that had effectively required sellers to compensate a buyer's agent.
The NAR's MLS, or Multiple Listing Service, is a database where 88% of sellers listed their homes last year. Brokers who list their clients' properties in the database previously had to agree to share their commissions with other MLS participants, with commissions typically standing at 6%.
Beginning in July, agents will also have to enter into written agreements with homebuyers they represent.
"It has always been our goal to preserve consumer choice and protect our members to the greatest extent possible," Nykia Wright, interim CEO, said in a statement.
At least one Wall Street analyst thinks these new rules will lead to "commissions falling 25% to 50%."
In a note to clients on Friday, Jaret Seiberg, housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote that in addition to this drop in commissions, this ruling "should benefit online and discount real estate brokerages. They should be able to access the Multiple Listing Service without having to meet the commission requirements that previously were in place."
Seiberg added: "That means they can offer lower commission rates in order to attract more business. In addition, the settlement bans the inclusion of buyer agent compensation in the listing."
In Seiberg's view, existing homeowners — who will now pay out a smaller fee upon the sale of their home — are set to benefit most, while first-time and less-wealthy buyers may see negative impacts, as smaller commissions and no pre-arranged fee structure, could hamper agent motivation to work with these clients.
The settlement also heightens the financial and administrative woes the NAR has been facing in recent months. Former CEO Bob Goldberg resigned last year just days after the $1.8 billion verdict against the organization over commissions. And former president, Tracy Kasper, resigned in January after a blackmail threat regarding a past personal matter.
US housing market faces another hurdle: construction job vacancies
The housing market is running up against another obstacle this year in addition to high mortgage rates: not enough construction workers.
“Builders...have high hopes this Spring, fueled by a chronic lack of supply and resilient buyer demand. But while this optimism has driven construction employment to all-time highs in recent months, the number of construction job openings has actually increased at the same time,” Stephen Kim, senior managing director and head of Evercore ISI’s Housing Research Team, wrote in a note on Friday.
Jobs in residential construction gained over 4,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department said last Friday. Overall, construction added 23,000 jobs as government spending boosts the industry.
The count of open construction jobs climbed to 413,000 in January from 386,000 a year ago, according to the latest JOLTS data available.
“Homebuilding is still a largely manual process, so without more workers, the builders’ plans to ramp up starts and bring down cycle times are destined to fall short once again this year,” Kim added.
The construction sector plays a critical role in shaping the housing landscape. Construction workers build new homes, tackle renovation projects and remodeling endeavors.
Builders pulled back on more new housing projects in January, including both single-family and multifamily homes, declining 14.8% last month to a 1.3 million annualized rate, after an upward revision to the prior month, the government data showed.
The move lower underscores how the housing market’s recovery has struggled to gain legs as mortgage rates hover near 7%.
Stocks slide in afternoon trading
The sour mood on Wall Street worsened in afternoon trading Friday.
Stocks sank lower and were poised for a losing week as the latest inflation reading showed the stubbornness of price pressures, making it more likely the Federal Reserve will delay its first interest rate cut.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 0.5% or 200 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) decreased 1%.
New CEO named to joint venture streaming service
The new sports streaming partnership among Disney's ESPN (DIS), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Fox (FOXA) just found its new CEO: former Apple and Hulu executive Pete Distad.
Distad, who most recently served as an executive at Apple (AAPL) for a decade following six years at Disney's Hulu, will assume oversight of all aspects of the joint venture, including overall strategy, distribution, marketing, and sales, according to a press release.
The streaming service, announced last month, is set to debut sometime this fall and comes at a time when media companies are facing increased pressure from investors to scale their platforms and achieve profitability.
The unnamed platform will bring together the three companies' respective slates of sports networks. Collectively, the new service encompasses about 55% of US sports rights, according to Citi Research.
"Pete is an accomplished innovator and leader who has extensive experience with launching and growing new video services," the three companies said in a joint statement. "We are confident he and his team will build an extremely compelling, fan-focused product for our target market."
Apple reaches settlement over Tim Cook's China sales remarks
Apple (AAPL) has agreed to pay $490 million to settle a class-action lawsuit that stemmed from comments CEO Tim Cook made during an analyst call about falling iPhone demand in China.
Plaintiffs alleged that Cook defrauded investors by concealing information during a 2018 call. Soon after, the company unexpectedly cut its quarterly revenue forecast by up to $9 billion, blaming US-China trade tensions, Reuters reports.
The iPhone-maker denied liability, but settled to avoid the cost and distraction of litigation, according to the report.
The tech giant's start to the year has been a rough one. As one of the laggards in the Magnificent Seven, shares have sunk around 7% amid weaker iPhone sales and the perception that the company is behind several of its peers in showcasing new AI technology.
Stocks trending in morning trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during morning trading on Friday:
Adobe (ADBE): Shares of the software company sank nearly 14% after posting first quarter earnings with a weaker-than-expected sales forecast. The softer outlook overshadowed a beat on revenue, which came in at $5.18 billion compared to an expected $5.14 billion. While the company announced plans to introduce artificial intelligence features, demand for the remainder of the year threw consumers' interest in the AI products into question.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): The dominant cryptocurrency showed once again the volatility of the market. After bitcoin broke past $70,000, achieving record highs earlier this week, the price of the token abruptly tumbled to $67,000, sending other popular digital currencies and crypto industry companies down with it.
Coinbase (COIN): The largest crypto trading platform in the US was among the big names reeling from the bitcoin pullback, shedding 0.3%. Other crypto-related stocks that lost ground included MicroStrategy (MSTR), which was down nearly 5%.
Ulta (ULTA): The beauty retailer fell Friday morning after releasing a soft forecast during its earnings report Thursday, despite beating expectations for the prior quarter. Shares were down 7%.
Stocks slide lower as inflation proves sticky
Wall Street retreated on Friday, building on losses from the prior session and feeding on concerns that recent inflation readings show the stubbornness of price pressures.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) decreased 0.6%.
Here comes Nvidia's woodstock
With all due respect to the start of the Fed meeting on March 19, it's really a backseat event to something else.
Nvidia's (NVDA) annual GTC event begins on March 18, which some on the Street refer to as the "Woodstock of AI."
I wasn't alive for the first Woodstock, so I have no clue as to the vibes there on the ground. But I am alive for Nvidia's Woodstock, and I can tell you it could be another stock price-moving event for the company — and the broader market.
A couple of things you should be on the lookout for while watching the event online, as constructed by BofA analyst Vivek Arya:
"1) Is there/will there be enough (grid) power to support the energy-intensive genAI computing requirements (power consumption of NVDA's DGX H100 system around 10.2kWatts), or will access to power become bottleneck for large AI clusters? 2) Impact of rising competition from custom chips (AVGO, MRVL, Alchip) and merchant silicon (AMD, Google) that claim to be cheaper (especially for AI inference) and/or lower cost (30-50% lower than comparable NVDA hardware); 3) Longer-term profit model, with industry-high 75%+ gross margin and 65%+ EBIT margins; 4) Visibility into CY25 sales growth and supply chain planning; 5) Planned use of cash pile that could exceed $100 billion /$180 billion exiting CY25E/CY26E, under constraints of high regulatory hurdles; and 6) At what point do China restrictions start to impact growth, any threat from further restrictions?"
The Yahoo Finance Live morning show team will have a good deal of coverage today on GTC, so do tune in. I am excited about one segment in particular: a few fun facts behind Nvidia's story.
Chart of the Day: AI enthusiasm rages on
The AI trade has a friend in Goldman Sachs' research team.
Interesting work out today by Goldman's Ryan Hammond, examining the different phases of the AI trade. While that was interesting to read, I was again struck by simply how popular the AI topic remains.
Hammond calls out:
"Initial ebullience about AI in 2023 drove a massive increase in public and investor focus on AI, as measured by search volumes and news stories. These measures plateaued in 2H 2023, albeit at a high level, but have surged again in 2024. Similarly, the share of S&P 500 companies mentioning AI on earnings calls dipped slightly from 35% in 2Q 2023 to 31% in 3Q 2023. However, the share increased to 37% in 4Q 2023, led by Info Tech and Comm Services."