Stock market today: US stocks diverge as rate-cut bets shift, with Nvidia on horizon

US stocks rose on Monday, looking to resume a rally spurred by the Federal Reserve's message that interest-rate cuts are imminent, ahead of a busy week dominated by Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added roughly 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added roughly 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.1% after the major indexes all gained more than 1% for the week.

Stocks edged toward fresh record highs after Chair Jerome Powell made it crystal clear the Fed is ready to pivot to lowering rates in September. The benchmark S&P 500 index is less than 1% away from topping the all-time closing high set in July.

Markets quickly moved to price in cuts totaling 1% by the end of 2024. But with only three Fed meetings left in the year — in September, November and December — and the August jobs report still to come, Wall Street is wondering when and whether a 0.5% cut is likely.

Now the focus is firmly on Nvidia earnings — the marquee event of the week — which will likely determine whether the market mood stays upbeat. If the chipmaker's results on Wednesday fail to meet sky-high expectations, that could further dent the AI trade that has powered stock gains — and, in turn, put the market's rebound from August lows to the test.

Also ahead is a Friday update on Fed policymakers' preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index print, is likely to feed into rate-path calculations. Also on decks is a reading on second quarter GDP on Thursday.

Elsewhere, oil prices jumped almost 3% amid reports of production shutdowns in Libya and fears of escalating Mideast tensions after both Israel and Hezbollah launched strikes. Global benchmark Brent crude futures (BZ=F) rose to $81.81 a barrel, while US benchmark WTI crude futures (CL=F) changed hands at $76.90 a barrel.