Stocks, Bonds Fall as Traders Rethink Fed Velocity: Markets Wrap

Richard Henderson
Updated 4 min read
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(Bloomberg) — Asian equities faced early declines on Friday after markets adjusted wagers on the pace of US interest-rate cuts ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance.

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Stock futures for Japan, Australia and Hong Kong dropped, echoing Thursday’s selloff in US stocks where both the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 indexes retreated. The yen strengthened early Friday ahead of an appearance of Bank of Japan’s Kazuo Ueda in parliament.

The 10-year yield rose five basis points and the policy-sensitive two-year yield climbed seven basis points, largely reversing the move from the prior session. An index of dollar strength rose Thursday, tracking the gains in yields. Australian and New Zealand bond yields advanced early Friday.

The moves reflected pared bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead of Powell’s Friday comments. Swaps pricing indicated three 25 basis point cuts across the remaining three Fed policy meetings this year, down from around 100 basis points of cuts priced in just two days ago. The shift meant swaps traders no longer expect a 50 basis point cut in 2024.

“We are now once again not debating if they will cut, but by how much they will cut and how many times they will cut before year end,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “The US economy is not circling the drain – so there is no need to suggest that it is.”

In Asia, currency traders were priming for potential moves in the yen with Japanese inflation data due Friday. In addition, investors were bracing for potential surprises when BOJ Governor Ueda fronts Japanese lawmakers after hawkish rhetoric helped trigger a massive selloff in global stock markets earlier this month.

Other data releases in Asia include Taiwan industrial output and Singapore inflation.

More Data

Investors waded through a raft of remarks from US policymakers, with Fed Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid saying he wants to see more data before supporting cuts. His Boston counterpart Susan Collins said “a gradual, methodical pace” is likely to be appropriate. Her comments were echoed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker in a CNBC interview.

“The script is clear — the Fed is going to ease in September, but no one is portraying a desire to ease 50 basis points at this time,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.

On the economic front, the latest figures were more of a “mixed bag.” Jobless claims data showed the labor market is cooling only gradually — rather than rapidly slowing amid elevated rates. US manufacturing activity shrank at the fastest pace this year. And existing-home sales increased for the first time in five months.

Declines in US stocks on Thursday included a 3.7% drop for Nvidia Corp. leading losses in big tech. Intel Corp. tumbled 6.1%, while banks climbed and energy shares joined oil higher. Peloton Interactive Inc. surged 35% after the fitness company reported earnings that beat estimates.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate rose 1.5% Thursday to around $73 per barrel. Gold was steady early Friday after a decline on Thursday.

Key events this week:

  • Japan CPI, Friday

  • BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July hike, Friday

  • US new home sales, Friday

  • Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 8:18 a.m. Tokyo time

  • Hang Seng futures fell 1%

  • S&P/ASX 200 futures fell 0.5%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

  • The euro was little changed at $1.1116

  • The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 146.07 per dollar

  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1454 per dollar

  • The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6706

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $60,390.81

  • Ether was little changed at $2,623.08

Bonds

  • Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.93%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed

  • Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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