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The early results are in from America’s average investors: The coronavirus outbreak’s impact on the global economy means weak equities markets may have further downside to go.
After two weeks of extreme volatility in markets not seen since the Christmas Eve massacre of 2018 — which sent the major indices into correction and countless stocks into bear markets —investors are bracing for the worst. In a new Yahoo Finance poll of more than 15,000 people, 78% said they do not believe the stock market has bottomed. When asked if stocks — again well off their mid-February highs — represented a buying opportunity of a lifetime right now, only 36% said Yes.
The poll was conducted this week amid several rally attempts in stocks and the Federal Reserve’s emergency 50 basis point rate cut designed to prop up the markets. Guess that wasn’t enough to spur investor confidence, which has been shell-shocked these past few weeks.
Of course many pros will point to this poll as a possible contrarian indicator. After all, the average investor is often viewed as ones with the least best information on companies and markets. So, if this group is crazy fearful on stocks — and selling accordingly - it could be the time for the smart money crowd to place bids for those cheaper shares on a view there will be no coronavirus-driven recession.
“I don’t think we have to see a recession. I think it will be shorter term in nature, two quarters of contraction. Investors just need to be thinking longer term and should I panic sell and get out of great stocks right now. I think it’s time to sharpen pencils, keep a list of what you would like to buy because there are opportunities to go shopping,” said Invesco chief markets strategist Kristina Hooper on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
But while we appreciate the upbeat perspective, the majority of market pros Yahoo Finance has talked to these past two weeks are growing increasingly worried. Most have said the market is unlikely to stabilize until COVID-19 infection cases peak and a vaccine is found. Until those things happen, strategists believe the market will continue to price in significant economic unknown and major bottom line hits to companies.
“The challenge right now is that investors are flying without radar — the economic fundamentals are very clear,” said JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist Alex Dryden. “And when you are flying without that radar, you are effectively flying blind.”
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.