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Is Textron Inc. (TXT) the Best Military Drone Stock to Buy According to Analysts?
We recently compiled a list of the 8 Best Military Drone Stocks To Buy According to Analysts.In this article, we are going to take a look at where Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) stands against the other military drone stocks. We also dive into unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry trends.
Demand for military drones has surged over the last few years amid deadly escalations breaking out in different parts of the world. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) were a prominent feature in the 2020 conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. They have also been clouding the skies in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Borodyanka as the Russia-Ukraine war approaches the 1000-day mark, with no immediate end in sight.
UAVs offer an unprecedented bird' s-eye view of the battlefield, making it difficult for enemy targets to move and hide from the theatre of war. An increasing number of countries are actively deploying military drones within and outside their borders for intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, and target operations, in what is being seen as the arrival of a new threat in the aerial defense space.
According to a report, the drone industry was valued at $30.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $48.5 billion in 2029, at a CAGR of 9.9% during this period. This has already been a healthy year for the drone market. For perspective, a major ETF issued by AdvisorShares has gained 15.46% YTD, outperforming the broader market by two percentage points. The market's growth is fueled by the need for enhanced aerial security and the advancements in technologies being made in the UAV industry.
There is active work ongoing in building drone defense systems as well to guard countries against the threats posed by UAVs. In early October this year, the Department of Defense (DOD) awarded a $250 million contract to Anduril Industries to counter drone attacks against American forces. Under the contract, the US will receive 500 recoverable Roadrunner interceptors.
Roadrunners are reusable drones that can intercept incoming drones or land back on the ground if they are not engaged. Anduril did not name the DOD customer for security concerns, however, the company stated that the contract would serve the American military in ‘priority regions where U.S. forces face significant UAS threats’.
Anduril Industries also recently unveiled a new, autonomous drone called Bolt after the success of similar products in Ukraine. The vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) autonomous vehicle will provide militaries with capabilities for a range of missions, from ISR to search and rescue. The drone also comes with a munition variant, called Bolt-M, to arm ground troops on the battlefield by making quick and precise strikes.
Compared to the use of costly and vulnerable fighter jets, loitering munitions after surveying the area through unmanned aerial vehicles has proven much more effective in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a surge of demand for military drones. With that said, let’s shift our focus now on the best military drone stocks to buy according to analysts.
Methodology
We sampled stocks from ETFs with military drone exposure and our own previous related articles on the subject. Then we narrowed down the list to the eight top stocks preferred by analysts, basing our rankings on their median share price upside potential and the number of analysts who had made projections about these companies, as of October 25, 2024.
We first ranked the stocks on each of these two metrics and followed it up by assigning the two metrics their respective weights, which were 40% for the median share price upside potential and 60% for the analyst count. This was followed by calculating the weighted ranking for each metric, and then aggregating the two to get an overall weighted ranking score. The 8 Best Military Drone Stocks To Buy According to Analysts are ranked in descending order of these weighted rankings.
Since only a few public companies are operating in the military-drone industry, we did not have a lot of choices for stocks, and one of these stocks had a negative median upside so we ranked it on a positive mean upside instead, which was based on the contribution of 5 analysts. This stock's mean share price upside potential was assigned a weightage of 40% as well.
For added perspective, we also mentioned the sentiment of the hedge funds towards each stock from Insider Monkey’s database of 912 hedge funds for the second quarter of 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
15 Countries that Provided the Highest Military Aid to Ukraine
A military cargo plane landing at its destination, signifying the strength of its defense arm.
Textron is an American conglomerate that manufactures products for consumers across several industries, including aerospace and defense, specialized vehicles, fuel systems, and turf care. It operates within six business segments: Bell, Textron Aviation, Textron eAviation, Textron Systems, Industrial, and Finance.
In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of $3.5 billion, up from $3.4 billion during the same period in 2023. Its quarterly adjusted profit was $1.54 per share, beating analysts’ estimates of $1.48 per share and growing 5.5% year-over-year. The strong results were driven by high demand across business segments that manufacture military helicopters and private jets.
Revenue at Textron Aviation rose 8% to reach $1.5 billion during the quarter. Bolstered by higher jet pricing, the segment generated profits of $195 million, significantly higher from $24 million in Q2 2023. Bell also posted a 13% increase in its revenue, driven by a higher military volume on the back of its contract with the DOD on the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft program.
There were also notable highlights from the quarter as far as UAVs are concerned. The company is a recognized industry leader in uncrewed, air, land, and surface products, and in May 2024, Textron Systems was selected by the U.S. Army for the Future Tactical Uncrewed Aircraft System (FTUAS) Option 3 and Option 4 award. Under the arrangement, Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) will complete flight and MOSA demonstrations, and deliver an Aerosonde Mk. 4.8 Hybrid Quad (HQ) uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) to the Army for testing and evaluation.
Textron eAviation also acquired the assets of Amazilia Aerospace, a Munich-based engineering company with expertise in digital flight control, flight guidance, and vehicle management systems for manned and unmanned aircraft. The acquisition will enhance Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT)’s capabilities in the UAV sector, through an expanded technology portfolio.
Robust results during Q2 and positive developments on FTUAS have led to a general bullish sentiment around the stock. Wall Street analysts have a consensus on Textron’s Buy rating with a median share price upside potential of 21.43%. Considering its high upside potential, Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) is one of the best military drone stocks to buy according to analysts.
Overall TXT ranks 5th on our list of the best military drone stocks to buy according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential of TXT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TXT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
