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The Fed tries to stay above politics. But a lot is at stake for the central bank on Election Day.
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The Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell have a lot riding on Tuesday's election, even as the central bank has spent 2024 keeping as much distance as it can from politics.
The next president is set to fill multiple open positions and, with Powell's term atop the central bank ending in May 2026, he or she will also be able to choose the next face of US monetary policy.
Perhaps the key question, as Kamala Harris signals a more status quo approach if she wins, is whether Trump would offer a deeper level of disruption than what he put on display from 2017 to 2021.
During his first term, then-President Trump attacked Powell with regularity and openly pushed for the actions he wanted, even once suggesting negative interest rates.
And he has signaled he could go further if he has a second term in office.
It's "an important fork in the road for the institution," noted Mark Spindel, the chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital and also a historian of the Fed and politics, in a recent interview.
He added that Trump's team is clearly "going to be very hands-on" if they win.
Fed policymakers will also have a chance to discuss the implications this week as the Federal Open Market Committee gathers Wednesday and Thursday in DC, with Powell at the head of the table.
The main topic for Fed officials will be whether to make the second interest rate cut of 2024 — with markets pricing in a 25bps cut this week — but surely the political fallout will be on their minds as well.
For Trump, a question of how far he'll go
Whether Trump will openly threaten the Fed's independence if he wins is not clear, but a Trump win would immediately inject massive uncertainty in part because of the many mixed signals he has sent.
He has also offered varying levels of antagonism toward September's jumbo rate cut, most recently saying in early October it was "too big a cut and everyone knows that was a political maneuver."
Trump's allies have also floated an array of other ideas that could inject new uncertainty, including new controls over the Fed that would be possible without even firing Powell.
The varying notions have remained a top topic of conversation in the nation's capital. The Washington Post recently reported — less than three weeks before the election — of yet another idea among Trump aides: demoting Michael Barr, the Fed board member responsible for regulating the biggest banks in the US.
Then-President Donald Trump looks on as his nominee for the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell takes to the podium at the White House on Nov. 2, 2017. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images) ·Drew Angerer via Getty Images
Perhaps the only thing that has been clear is that there would be a vigorous debate among Trump allies about how far to go to bring more politics into a central bank that has long tried to be free of it.
"Agree or disagree, we should have America's elected leaders having input about the most important decisions confronting our country," Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance said on CNN in August.
He added — in a comment that raised eyebrows — that his view is that monetary policy "should fundamentally be a political decision."
Trump has also been clear that, in spite of initially elevating Powell to his current perch, that no third term will be in the offing if he wins. And Trump loyalists have already been jockeying for months, as a result.
Most of the names include figures who have surrounded Trump for years on economic policy — from former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who was on the shortlist last time, to Kevin Hassett, who worked in the White House as a senior adviser to Trump.
Warsh was recently jokingly introduced as "chairman-elect" during a CNBC appearance and suggested he would seek a change in course if he is selected, slamming the Fed's recent September's rate cut and suggesting the bank looks "like it's lurching."
Hassett took a different view recently, telling the Financial Times that the September rate cut was justified by evidence of a weakening jobs market.
A long-shot contender is former Fed nominee Judy Shelton, who has been a very loud Trump booster throughout the campaign. An attempt by Trump to select her last time was blocked by the Senate. But it hasn't caused her to tamp down her critiques of the central bank.
A recent blog post from the White House Council of Economic Advisors centered on "the importance of an independent central bank."
It was an echo of an argument often made by independent economists who make the point that history shows political interference in monetary policy has long been a recipe for negative economic outcomes.
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks to reporters during a stop on Phoenix on Aug. 10. (JULIA NIKHINSON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) ·JULIA NIKHINSON via Getty Images
Harris also hasn't offered much in the way of clues about whom she might pick if she wins, with speculation centering around whether she would look for moderate or more left-leaning candidates.
A centrist candidate could be in the mold of Powell, a registered Republican who has nonetheless been tapped by Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden for various posts. Harris has offered compliments to Powell even after she voted against his confirmation as Fed chair in 2018.
More left-of-center candidates could be in the mold of Lael Brainard, who served as Powell's deputy at the Fed before decamping in 2023 to serve as Biden's top economic advisor at the White House.
As for Powell himself, "I just have a feeling this is it for Jay" said Spindel, adding of a possible soft landing economic scenario that "if he can land that bird, like [Sully] Sullenberger on the Hudson River and get inflation back under control, I think he will declare his victory and retire."
In the end, even with monetary policy unlikely to sway many votes with polls often showing little awareness of even the central bank's role, which candidate voters end up selecting Tuesday will have a giant impact on their top issue: inflation.
But Spindel added the politicians looking to intervene might be careful what they wish for.
He has studied political interactions with the Fed stretching back decades and "the beauty of the congressional design was that the legislature designed this entity to insulate themselves from blame."
But the more a president such as Trump gets involved, he noted, "you are going to be much more obviously to blame."
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
