'The Marvels' box office bomb highlights Disney's film woes — which could take years to fix
Disney's (DIS) live action film, "The Marvels," which was panned by critics, drew in a dismal $47 million domestically during its opening weekend — the worst performance in the MCU franchise history.
What it means: Disney's film struggles will take a lot of time to correct.
The disappointing box office results come after the media giant reported strong earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter and increased its annual cost-cutting goal to $7.5 billion, up from the previous $5.5 billion set in February.
But despite the rally in shares following the results, analysts warned there are still pain points ahead, particularly surrounding its content.
"I don't think the studio is going to be an engine that's going to help Disney grow for the next 18 months," said Doug Creutz, analyst at TD Cowen. "I don't think it's going to get worse, but I don't think it's going to get better either."
Disney has lagged competitors at the box office, despite once being the leader in the industry. Marvel, in particular, has struggled as a franchise ever since 2019's "Endgame." Creutz blamed the results on oversaturation and a decline in FOMO, or fear of missing out, on the part of the consumer.
"There was a lot of FOMO where it's like, 'Man, if I miss this Marvel movie then I'm going to miss something important," Creutz told Yahoo Finance. "The thing with FOMO is if the ask on people gets too big, they won't go see it," he said, adding he wasn't surprised "The Marvels" flopped, especially given the harsh critic reviews.
"Marvel has asked a lot of audiences and they've done it at a time when the quality hasn't been there because they've been trying to do too many different things," he continued. "So here we are. [Disney] now has to try and fix what it broke."
But it's not just Marvel. Disney's animation business has also underperformed, especially compared to competitors like Universal (CMCSA) and Sony (SONY).
Creutz said demand for animation "has definitely gone down" post-pandemic, driven by the excess of kids content on streaming platforms like Disney+. He added: "The only animated films that have done well since pandemic have been big sequels. ... Disney's pipeline didn't have any sequels in it."
Star Wars content has also been a problem, which, in Creutz's view, might mean new leadership is in store. Kathleen Kennedy is currently president of Lucasfilms.
Marvel, however, "is more complicated," he said. "Disney is just going to have to sit down and get a little more focused."
Creutz still maintained his $94 price target and Outperform rating on the stock but warned those changes will take a fair amount of time to play out.
"These things take years to change," he said. "If [Bob Iger] is changing the pipeline now, you're not going to see it until 2026. ... I'm confident he's going to try. I think he understands the trade-offs [but] I'm not sure there's a way to solve this easily."
Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at [email protected].
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