The stock market won the Midterm: Macke

Rule 1 in the proverbial “Book of Market Cliches” is that stocks hate uncertainty. That being the case, the election results from last night are just about as bullish as elections get.

Generally speaking, midterms are almost always bullish. Since 1928 the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC)  has a median gain of 7% in the 90 days post midterm. The index has been positive 86% of the time, according to Barclays. If you look back in more recent history you see that in 1998, 2006 and 2010 the S&P 500 was up strongly following those elections through the end of January.

The most obvious explanation is that Washington D.C. is essentially locked in place after the elections. It's a tiny seasonal window, of free market capitalism, with limited fettering from the beltway. Which brings us back to the present and the gloriously paralyzed state of D.C. The GOP absolutely boot stomped the Democrats in the eyes of everyone except, it seems, President Obama. Despite 6 out of 10 voters expressing negative views on Obama in exit polls the word from the White House is that the President doesn't "feel repudiated.” In other words, he's digging in.

Get the Latest Market Data and News with the Yahoo Finance App

The GOP now has a majority in the Senate but not enough to override vetoes. What that means, based on market history is we are entering a bullish period. Based on personal history the President will hold a press conference today and he will likely show up late and angry.

That sets the stage for 2 more years of nothing getting done, albeit with a slight GOP bias. The market loves that combination. As long as the 2000 level holds on the S&P 500 this market is a buy.

Don't take my word for it. Yahoo Finance will have a live post-election special. Austin Goolsby, Aaron Task, Mike Santoli and other heavy hitters will all weigh in on what these results mean for your money. Don't miss it.

More From Yahoo Finance:

Michael Kors' insiders bailed out before retailer's Q3 miss

Jerry Rice: Retirement tips from an NFL great

JPMorgan Chase, Royal Caribbean among five stocks to own now


Advertisement