Over the weekend, news organizations dumped a final wave of pre-election polls ahead of the final stretch of voting on Tuesday.
The numbers, once again, showed Democrat Joe Biden in a commanding position.
But the data also continued to demonstrate President Trump’s enduring support when the question turns to the economy. If the president is able to pull off any surprises on Tuesday (the forecasters still give him a shot), it will likely be built on his economic approval rating.
A recent CNN poll of Arizona was one good example. Pollsters asked voters if Biden or Trump “would better handle” the economy as president. Trump was the answer for 54% of Arizonans, compared to 43% for Biden.
But Biden was the clear winner on other topics such as who would better handle the coronavirus. Trump’s overall approval rating was just 47%. The topline results for the state — a must-win contest for the presidency — remains within the margin of error with 50% of registered voters picking Biden vs. 46% for Trump.
More examples abound: A Washington Post-ABC News poll of Floridians released Sunday found the race to be a dead heat with Trump’s chances resting upon his 58% approval rating on the economy. The pollsters also found a nearly identical dynamic in Pennsylvania.
Other states, like Michigan and Wisconsin, have turned in results that show Biden pulling even with Trump on the economy question. That has gone hand in hand with the former vice president opening up significant leads in those states.
The situation appears to be a reversal of 2016, when exit polls on Election Day found voters evenly split between Trump and Hillary Clinton on the economy. In fact, Clinton won among voters who listed the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Trump won at the time among voters who listed immigration or terrorism as their top concern.
Long ‘an important piece of work’ for Democrats
This time around, Trump supporters have routinely listed the economy as their most important issue. In August, during their convention, Democrats acknowledged that they had a challenge when it came to voters and the economy.
Neera Tanden, president of the Center for American Progress, said it’s “an important piece of work to do,” while Jim Kessler, executive vice president at Third Way, advised Democrats to try and combine the coronavirus response and the economy: “You just would have to tie those two things together at all times,” he said.
As president, the first step I will take will be to get control of the virus that's ruined so many lives.
Because I understand something this president doesn't.
We will never get our economy back on track until we deal with this virus.— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) August 23, 2020
The Biden campaign has tried to follow that advice but it doesn’t appear to have worked. Poll after poll shows a divergence when voters are asked about the two issues.
A recent Florida poll from Monmouth found Trump winning on the economy question, 47% to 36%. The numbers were almost exactly flipped 48% to 38% in Biden’s favor when the same question was asked about coronavirus.
‘People are differentiating’
Trump, meanwhile, is seeing some of his best economic numbers recently.
A national poll from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal found a 55% approval rating for the president on the economy. And Trump has been quick to tweet about stock market gains or positive seeming economic numbers, like the news last week that third-quarter GDP grew by 33.1% on an annualized basis.
I built the greatest economy in the World, the best the U.S. has ever had. I am doing it again!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 7, 2020
But the good news for him has often been quickly overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic. And Trump has often failed to focus on the economy for a sustained period during his frenetic final wave of campaign events.
At an event in Tampa last week, Trump mentioned weekly jobless claims: “This is boring but it’s really good, just hit a seven-month low,” he said. The president then quickly moved on to other topics like Fox News and allegations against Joe Biden’s son.
The limited power of economic issues is evident. In the NBC News/WSJ poll above, Biden maintains a 10-point lead among voters.
A survey by The Cook Political Report this summer found that voters — particularly crucial suburban voters — often give the president good marks on the economy but won’t offer their support because of his overall behavior.
“People are differentiating his misbehavior, his bad choice of words, his bullying and so forth,” said Robert Shapiro, a polling expert and professor at Columbia University, in an interview a few months back. Trump has always “been doing better on the economy than in general.”
Ben Werschkul is a producer for Yahoo Finance in Washington, DC.
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