When Donald Trump recently endorsed Tesla CEO Elon Musk's idea for a government efficiency commission, he claimed that an audit of the federal government would turn up trillions in savings "for the same service that you have right now."
It's an idea that Trump has continued to tout including as recently as yesterday. But critics have been quick to point out that the math likely doesn't add up. There's simply little evidence of that level of fraud in the federal government.
Trump has nevertheless called Musk "the greatest cutter," citing his layoffs at social media company X (formerly Twitter) as a model.
The idea for taking that approach to Washington, which neither Trump nor Musk has gone into detail on exactly which cuts they'd prioritize, also comes after Washington has for decades tried to tackle "waste, fraud, and abuse" with commissions that propose big ideas but often end up having limited effects.
"That is absurd," noted former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich in a recent interview about the notion that a potential Musk commission could succeed without massive cuts to government services.
Reich is a prominent foe of both Trump and Musk and is part of a chorus of left-leaning critics. He noted that half of the approximately $6 trillion in annual federal spending is tied to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
There's very little to do for those programs beyond benefit cuts in what Reich calls a "quarter-baked idea."
Then-president Donald Trump with Elon Musk at the White House in 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) ·(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Other Democrats have gone even further and begun to charge that cuts to things like Social Security and Medicare are part of the idea here, pointing to past comments from Musk focused on the unsustainable path of social safety net programs.
"It's just labeling or messaging," Alex Lawson of the left-leaning Social Security Works said of Musk's idea. "If they were like, 'Oh, we're going to put Elon Musk in charge of a commission to steal your Social Security and Medicare benefits,' people would say no."
The idea of Musk heading this commission has also raised conflict-of-interest concerns and even charges that he could become an American oligarch. If the commission comes to be, Musk could potentially shape the federal government's ability to regulate his companies. But he could also push changes that could also impact the lives of Americans — and that may be politically salient in the two months until Election Day.
The plan has its supporters, of course, with the Wall Street Journal editorial board calling it "Trump's Best Idea." The editorial also noted that popular programs like Social Security might need to be part of the overall mix in the end, noting, "As we wait for the fiscal crisis that may be required to galvanize entitlement reform, there is plenty that could be done to cut spending and reduce government waste."
In any case, confronting Social Security will likely be inevitable for a president in the near future with the program facing insolvency and reduced monthly checks as soon as 2033.
How Musk describes his idea
Musk, in his public comments in recent weeks, has revealed that he's eyeing more than just efficiencies if this commission comes to be.
"America is going bankrupt extremely quickly," Musk said at a recent appearance at the All-In Summit, describing his idea as one aimed at reducing the size of government bureaucracy. He would focus on unnecessary work, while also cutting regulations. (He cited his own company's run-ins with the government as the main example.)
"This does not have a good end, and we have to reduce the spending," Musk added.
Musk has also amplified even further-out ideas in his regular postings on government bloat. One post just yesterday about the link between inflation and government spending amplified a message from another X user, who said the problem "won't stop until we end the Fed."
No matter what approach he actually takes if the commission comes to be, Musk would be sure to have a challenge living up to Trump's promise of rooting out "trillions of dollars wasted and gone and nobody knows where it went."
The former president has also occasionally referenced trims as well as efficiencies to programs like Social Security. He told CNBC in March, "there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting, and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements."
Elon Musk during a stop at the US Open tennis final in September (REUTERS/Mike Segar) ·(REUTERS / Reuters)
Estimates of government inefficiency show a significant problem but not one that will have the far-reaching effects Trump has claimed. One detailed report from the Government Accountability Office found the government may lose between $233 billion and $521 billion each year, far below the annual deficit of over $2 trillion.
Not to mention that the track record of such commissions has been mixed at best. A commission under then-President Obama known as Simpson-Bowles ended with a range of ideas to balance the budget such as an increase in Social Security's retirement age. Lawmakers declined to heed the advice.
Similarly, Trump said the Musk commission would be charged with making recommendations, leaving the final decision to policymakers.
Similar efforts to tackle debt were undertaken in the Clinton and Reagan administrations to get a handle on the problem. But the total debt has nevertheless passed $35 trillion.
"There have been four commissions since 1982 to seek more government efficiency. None of them have gone anywhere," noted Reich. "They've all been PR attempts, but they've been much more sophisticated and led by far better and more knowledgeable people than Elon Musk."
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
