As he burns down Washington on his way out of town, President Trump is inadvertently making incoming President Joe Biden more powerful and boosting the odds Biden can fulfill his policy priorities during the next two years.
Trump’s first gift to Biden was sabotaging the two Republican Senate campaigns in Georgia, where Democratic challengers won both seats in a stunning upset on Jan. 5. Trump kneecapped the Republican incumbents by confusing voters with his bogus claims of election fraud and attacking the state’s Republican leaders. Even Trump allies blame him for tipping the balance in favor of Democrats.
Those two Democratic wins have seismic political implications because they gave Democrats a one-vote majority in the Senate and total control of Congress. That doesn’t mean Biden will be able to pass anything he wants, but it disenfranchises the GOP and gives Dems control of the Senate agenda, which will dramatically change the type of legislation Congress can pass.
The Trump riots at the Capitol on Jan. 6 further empower Biden and his fellow Democrats. Trump’s incitement of the rioters, his silence as they ransacked the Capitol and his expression of “love” for these domestic terrorists has fully fractured the Republican party. Many top Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader (for a few more days) Mitch McConnell and Vice President Mike Pence have essentially disowned Trump. A few others are calling for his removal. Aides are resigning and donors are disgusted. Trump’s rapidly diminishing support now seems to be concentrated among some radical GOP legislators rapidly disgracing themselves and the ragtag seditionists now fleeing Washington.
Trump has moved so far out of the mainstream that in just a few days he shattered his own influence as a Republican power broker. “Biden’s political capital is now more valuable,” says Stefanie Miller, managing director at advisory firm FiscalNote Markets. “Republicans no longer have a path to being the party of no that we’ve seen in the past.”
Opportunity for Democratic agenda
If Trump had held his grip on the party, even in retirement, most Congressional Republicans would have had to show fealty to him, in order to win his endorsement in reelection races and perhaps some funding from the political-action committee Trump has established. But Trump is suddenly so toxic his endorsement doesn’t matter except to the most radical conservatives, and it might even harm some centrist Republicans. Vote-wise, this will split the GOP into essentially two parties: The radicals sticking with Trump’s “America first” nativism, and more traditional Republicans who may revert to Reagan-era priorities of good government, stable institutions and fiscal conservatism.
This is an opportunity for Democrats to draw some Republican support for their legislative plans, which might enlarge the realm of the possible. Biden’s first legislative push is likely to be further coronavirus relief spending, structured according to Biden’s “build back better” recovery plan. Biden, for instance, wants up to $2 trillion in infrastructure spending during the next two years, including major investments in clean energy, more buy-America requirements, elder care, child care and racial justice. Such a catch-all plan would have had no chance with Republicans controlling the Senate. In the minority, Republicans can still gum up votes by using the filibuster and other technical maneuvers. But Republicans freed from Trumpism will have more freedom to vote like moderates, especially if Biden bills contain pork for their home states and districts.
With unified Republican opposition, Democrats would have to use the reconciliation process, which requires a simple majority vote rather than the 60 votes needed to bypass a filibuster. But the majority can only use reconciliation once per session, which would give a unified GOP veto power over anything not included in a reconciliation bill. But if Republicans are freelancing, Dems might be able to find 9 or 10 willing to support certain bills in exchange for something good for their constituents.
Consider health care. Biden wants to lower the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 60 and establish a new “public option,” similar to Medicare, for people who can’t get affordable coverage any other way. If Trump were still influential, he’d probably call any Republican supporting such ideas “socialists” or “extremists,” scaring them into opposition. But some Republicans might think expanding health care options could help their constituents, especially amid a deadly pandemic. And Trump the disgraced radical might not influence their votes anymore. Dems could further woo Republicans with other concessions, making it possible to reach the 60-vote threshold with the bipartisan support that typically makes new laws less controversial.
To exploit the opening Trump has created, Democrats will need to stick with moderate proposals able to attract some conservative support and avoid trying to ram through liberal wish-list items like Medicare for all or the Green New Deal. They’ll still need the support of liberal Democrats and have to be careful not to ignite a civil war in their own party between Bernie Sanders “progressives” and Biden moderates. At the same time, the political climate remains a powder keg with more incendiary developments possible in coming weeks. Trump might have another gift or two for Biden.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: [email protected]. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
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