Membership fee hikes could be coming to Costco (COST) very soon.

In a research note published on Monday, UBS analyst Michael Lasser said the firm continues to believe a membership fee hike is coming from the wholesale club this year, most likely in the second quarter.

Lasser first laid out the case for higher fees from Costco at the beginning of the year. Historically, he noted in January, Costco has raised fees every 5-6 years. Its last fee increase came in November 2011.

Currently, Executive memberships at Costco cost $110 per year. Business and Gold Star memberships are $55 annually. UBS is modeling for a $10/year increase in the price of Executive memberships and a $5/year hike for Gold Star members.

“Several factors support our view,” the firm wrote.

“First, membership renewals and traffic growth have remained steady in the US. This suggests Costco hasn’t lost many customers as a result of moving away from American Express. Second, a more attractive private label credit card offering can help offset any pressure from an increase in fees. [Costco’s] new Citi Visa card offers 2% cash back on [Costco] purchases, which compares to just 1% on the old American Express card. This means Costco credit card customers would need to spend just $500 in a year to break even on a $5 membership fee hike.” (Emphasis added.)

UBS expects Costco could announce a new fee structure alongside its second quarter earnings release, which will likely be released in June.

The company is expected to report earnings on Thursday, with adjusted earnings per share expected to hit $1.36 on revenue of $29.86 billion, according to estimates from Bloomberg. Same-store sales are expected to rise 3.5%.

UBS does, however, think there’s a chance Costco’s February sales were impacted by a delay in processing tax refunds, a potential issue for retail sales — among other things — which Yahoo Finance highlighted earlier this month.

UBS expects Costco earnings to be in-line with the Street, and has a “Buy” rating and $180 price target on the stock.

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Myles Udland is a writer at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @MylesUdland

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