US economy has 'regained growth momentum' in April as recession fears swirl

The US economy is in the midst of its biggest upturn in nearly a year, according to new data from S&P Global out Friday.

S&P Global's preliminary reading on activity across the US economy in April reached an 11-month high, while the survey's reading on activity in the services sector hit a 12-month high. The report comes as a challenge to the narrative that "storm clouds" are brewing in the US economy.

"The latest survey adds to signs that business activity has regained growth momentum after contracting over the seven months to January," wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "The latest reading is indicative of GDP growing at an annualized rate of just over 2%."

In April, S&P's composite PMI reached 53.5, up from 52.3 in March and the highest reading since May 2022, the company said in a release. For this index, any reading above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction.

For the services sector, S&P's business activity index registered a reading of 53.7, up from 52.6 last month, while the report's manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, up from 49.2 in March. Friday's reading marked a six-month high for S&P's manufacturing gauge.

Economic activity in the US picked up at the fastest pace since last spring in April, data from S&P Global showed, challenging the narrative of an imminent downturn in the US economy. (Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence)

"Growth is also reassuringly broad-based, led by services thanks to a post-pandemic shift in spending away from goods, though goods producers are also reporting signs of demand picking up again," Williamson added.

"Jobs growth has accelerated alongside the resurgence of demand, aided by reports of vacancies being more easily filled, reflecting improved supply of candidates and higher wages."

Friday's report comes less than two weeks before the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, which is expected to see the central bank raise interest rates by another 0.25%.

Earlier this week, the Fed's Beige Book report, which gathers anecdotes from business contacts across the country, showed economic activity remained steady in recent weeks despite concerns about the banking sector that rattled markets in March.

Credit standards, however, did tighten in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's failure in early March. And recent data has led many economists to continue to expect a downturn later this year.

Last week, data on retail sales, industrial production, and initial jobless claims prompted Oren Klachkin, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, to write in a note to clients that he expects a recession later in the year.