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US Election: what a Trump or Harris victory means for the hydrocarbons sector
US voters go to the polls tomorrow (5 November) to elect their next president.
As one of the closest US presidential elections in living memory approaches, Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are virtually tied in the polls.
And whether America gets its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term, the impact on the US’s oil and gas industry is likely to be markedly different.
So, as we approach the moment of truth, Energy Monitor's sister site Offshore Technology has looked at how each candidate will approach the US’s oil and gas sectors, what they plan to do, and what limitations they might face.
Harris’s primary positions
According to a late October report from GlobalData, Offshore Technology’s parent company, Harris’s energy priorities include strengthening electric vehicle (EV) supply chains, promoting offshore wind and household heat pumps, upgrading the US’s transmission infrastructure, and encouraging states to use 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) subsidies to make their economies greener.
The IRA includes provisions for $783bn to be spent on energy and climate change initiatives.
Some 80% of IRA’s clean energy funding is available to red states and districts which are generally in greater need of federal assistance to transition to greener energy production and usage.
In 2024, the Energy Permitting Reform Act (EPRA) was introduced to cut through the red tape across all energy/mineral projects and accelerate transmission line buildout. However, the bill – which contains provisions for 350GW of clean power projects – will most likely be altered to reflect Republican priorities should Trump win.
Harris has also committed to stricter environmental regulations, 100% renewable power generation by 2035, and a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.
And there are some (at least partial) overlaps with the Harris campaign. Trump's priorities include promoting growth in the oil and gas sectors, allowing more liquified natural gas (LNG) permits, and taking a more relaxed approach to environmental regulations.
He has also mentioned trimming green subsidies in the IRA to fund tax cuts in other areas (primarily increased immigration control), reducing US involvement in global climate initiatives, and limiting the implementation and oversight of IRA projects.
Trump has also not committed to the Paris Agreement on climate, having withdrawn once already during his first term. Trump will also facilitate the production and distribution of petroleum products.
Trump is unlikely to end IRA investments, as Republican states and swing states account for 58% and 10%, respectively, of the projects announced under the IRA.
Will there be a fracking revolution?
And according to GlobalData analysis earlier in the summer, the US election could represent a watershed moment for energy policies as the country looks set to embark either upon a “fracking revolution” or a green one.
The priorities of the two candidates differ dramatically, and it is the weight of voters’ wallets that is likely to be the deciding factor.
Members of the US public are generally feeling the squeeze, and tougher times have pushed priorities away from eco-consciousness and towards energy dominance, with the employment and investment that represents.
Trump’s plans for US energy security stand in opposition to those of the current Democrat administration, which has pushed comparatively green policies since they won the election in 2020.
The global financial institution said limiting factors include the current low levels of the strategic petroleum reserve, while looser regulations may only help with increased supplies in the longer term.
The banking giant expects Brent crude prices to range from $75 to $90 in 2025, assuming steady growth in the US economy and market balancing from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Goldman Sachs also foresees oil prices possibly dropping by as much as $11 per barrel in 2025, as global demand weakens.
The outcome of the election is also poised to have significant implications for the country's wider power sector. Industry experts at Offshore Technology’s sister outlet, Power Technology, have explained what's to come for industry.
“It is worth highlighting that for all the polarisation that we see today, there is bipartisan support on key energy transition sectors,” said Grace Fan, managing director of global policy research at Power Technology.
“For example, nuclear, geothermal, energy storage, biofuels and clean hydrogen all have support on both sides of the aisle,” they added, and “we will see forward motion in the energy transition, no matter who wins the presidential race.”
Additionally, the US is likely to continue decoupling from China regardless of the election outcome, particularly in critical energy sectors such as EVs, EV batteries, battery parts and solar cells. This trend will intensify global competition, with either Harris or Trump navigating a fragmented energy landscape marked by “great power” rivalry.
"US Election: what a Trump or Harris victory means for the hydrocarbons sector" was originally created and published by Energy Monitor, a GlobalData owned brand.
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