We recently compiled a list of the 10 Worst Performing Affordable Stocks Under $40.In this article, we are going to take a look at where Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) stands against the other worst performing affordable stocks under $40.
How’s the Market Performing after Fed Rate Cuts are Finally Here
The stock market has been anxiously waiting for the interest rate cut news. Analysts had been debating whether the Federal Reserve would make a 25-point or 50-point cut. The wait was finally over with good news for the market.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to cut the borrowing rates by the higher end of the expectation, which was 50 basis points. The rate cut indicated that inflation is moderating and that the labor market has weakened. This marked the first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The decision was not unanimous as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman wanted a quarter-point cut. Moreover, the chairman Jerome Powell called the cuts to be a “recalibration”. One thing that the committee was confident about is the fact that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% mark.
Right after the decision the Dow Jones index jumped 375 points and then eased a little as the market digested the news. In one of our recent articles about 10 Worst Affordable Stocks To Buy Right Now, we talked about how Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder was confident that the market will perform positively both moving in and out of the announcement. Here’s an excerpt from the article:
"Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, joined CNBC to talk about how the market is expected to perform moving into the fed rate cuts and after the announcement. Lee believes that one of the factors leading to confusion among investors is the election period. The market is expected to stay in a fluctuating environment for the next eight weeks until the elections are over. However, fed rate cuts are coming at a crucial time to give some positive for the market.
Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business and Wisdom Tree chief economist, recently appeared on CNBC and expressed that he was pleasantly surprised by the Federal Reserve’s decision to make a 50 basis point cut. While talking about how the market is going to perform after the announcement, Professor Siegel said the market is going to be at an all-time high and there are not going to be any fluctuations as we have seen in the past few days.
The word “recalibration” holds significance here, the market has been 100% towards the target unemployment around 80% to 90% towards the inflation target and the Fed hadn’t moved the interest rate. Professor Siegel pointed out that the gap has been growing between the Fed Funds and the market conditions and they were thinking about a single cut by year-end until June. However, the latest announcement mentioned the Fed will cut rates at each meeting making a total of 6 cuts until June of next year. This will bring the Fed Funds rate down 200 basis points to 3.3%, which is where the professor thinks it should be.
Overall, the market and the economy seem to be heading towards a period of growth. The only foreseeable headwind is if the inflation picks up, however, analysts don’t see any signs of inflation picking up; rather they see all major industries doing well especially now that the rates have been cut.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of the 10 worst performing affordable stocks under $40, we used the Finviz stock screener. We first defined criteria to ensure we only got the worst performing affordable stocks. We selected stocks trading below the market average Forward P/E (i.e. 23.79 as per Wall Street Journal), with earnings expected to grow this year, average analyst median price target upside potential of at least 30%, and a year-to-date decline of at least 30%. Moreover, we also ensured that these stocks were trading below $40 and were widely held by institutional investors.
Once the criteria were defined, we then selected 10 stocks that fit our criteria and ranked them in ascending order of the Year-to-Date decline. Please note that all the indicators used to rank the list were recorded on September 18.
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Aerial view of a giant iron ore mine, showcasing the mineral deposits of the company's Ferrous Minerals segment.
Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is one of the major mining companies based in Brazil. The company mainly focuses on iron ore and nickel production. With operations running in more than 30 countries, the company plays a key role in the construction and manufacturing industry by providing iron ore in large quantities.
In fact, during the most recent quarter which is Q2 2024, Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) achieved record high production since 2018. The company produced 81 megatons of iron with its S11D reaching a record production for the quarter. As a result of high production, the shipment also increased by 7% year-over-year leading to a reaffirmed 2024 guidance of $21.5 to $23 per ton.
Despite robust performance, the company missed analysts' expectations in terms of revenue and EPS. During the second quarter, it generated $9.9 billion in revenue, $98.3 million short of market consensus. Moreover, the stock has declined 32.65% on a year-to-date basis and is among one of the worst performing affordable stocks under $40.
But the story does not end here. We have already seen how the company recently reached a record-high production of iron, and management’s strategic goal to become a preferred low-carbon steel supplier is still to be discussed. Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) has two major projects under construction. These projects will add more than 30 megatons of iron to the company’s portfolio, combined. The Vargem Grande and Capanema projects are nearing construction and will be ready to operate soon, meaning a step forward toward management’s goal.
Analysts have also acknowledged the progress. 24 analysts have a consensus Buy rating on the stock, with their median price target of $15 presenting an upside of 42% from current levels.
“Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) fell during the quarter with iron ore prices. The company reported 1Q23 revenue of $8.44B, -22.7% Y/Y, below consensus of $8.79B, and Adjusted EBITDA of $3.69B, compared to 1Q22 EBITDA of $6.55B, below consensus of $4.49B. The Brazilian miner produced 66.8 million tons (Mt) of iron ore in 1Q23, +5.8% Y/Y, below consensus of 67.7 Mt, 67.0 thousand tons (kt) of copper, +18.4% Y/Y, and 41.0 kt of nickel, -10.5% Y/Y. Although management reaffirmed its FY23 production guidance, analysts seemed to be concerned by the negatively offsetting impacts of weaker iron ore prices as China, the world’s largest iron ore buyer, has threatened to curb any “unreasonable” price gains for the metal in an effort to prevent this year’s steel output from exceeding 2022 levels. Vale generated 1Q23 free cash flow (FCF) of $2.28B, bringing trailing-twelve month (TTM) FCF to $6.73B, or a FCF yield of 11.3%. The company repurchased $763MM worth of shares in the quarter and paid $1.80B in dividends, bringing total capital returned to shareholders in the quarter to $2.56B, or 4.3% of the company’s market cap.”
Overall VALE ranks 7th on our list of the worst performing affordable stocks under $40. While we acknowledge the potential of VALE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a promising AI stock that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.