Wall Street almost always wins midterm elections
If history is any guide, investors need not wait for the midterm ballots to be counted. Wall Street will most likely continue its winning streak. “We are looking for gains in this sweet spot of the four-year cycle,” notes Jeff Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Regardless of who wins, he says, “after the elections, the last seven weeks of the year, we see gains for the markets.”
Hirsch’s number crunching shows the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) average gains of between 8% to 9% during the fourth quarter, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) trailing with a gain of 7.3%.
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What could make the markets even happier is a change of control in Congress. According to the Wall Street Journal, recent polls suggest Republicans will win a majority in the Senate. If that happens, it would be the fourth time in less than a decade that voters have ousted a party from control of Congress or the White House. “We have had a pretty good market with a split congress and a Democratic President. The best combination is a Republican Congress and a Democratic President with the Dow Jones Industrial Average averaging 19.5% since 1949 so it's hard to lose on politics right now for the market.” says Hirsch.
As for President Obama, his approval ratings continue to plummet. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows just 44 percent of Americans report a favorable impression, but Hirsch says investors don’t seem to care. "Midterm years, and we saw that this year, are stronger during the second midterm year, the second for the President. We are used to this person and there is less disappointment.”
That helps explain why U.S. investors have driven stocks to record levels already this year despite a general dissatisfaction with Washington politics.
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