While the polls have narrowed for Election Day on Tuesday, adding to volatility in the market, the market is still expecting a win by Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
And that means a surprise victory by Republican candidate Donald Trump would likely spark a bout of volatility in the markets.
Bond market scenarios
Under a Clinton administration, the economy would continue to experience trend GDP growth while a Trump win would add potential recession risk, according to analysts.
The more certain backdrop under Clinton would give the Federal Reserve the green light to raise rates, according to HSBC, albeit at a moderate pace given still-mixed fundamentals. In other words, they see a moderate steepening of the short-term, front-end of the yield curve. (The market-implied odds that the Fed will hike rates in December rose to 78% after Wednesday’s central bank statement.)
Meanwhile, bond yields would fall under a Trump victory, according to analysts, given the unfavorable impact of trade and tariff proposals that are likely to get initial attention by Trump, along with increased macro uncertainty that could delay action by the Fed.
“Given significant presidential authority in these areas and a reduced need for Congressional support, the fastest way to move on a populist agenda would be on the trade and tariff front,” according to HSBC. “Rhetoric from the President-elect could increase tensions with trading partners even before the inauguration in January.”
Stock market scenarios
When it comes to the stock market, HSBC analysts see a more positive response from a Clinton win. However, they also warned against expecting too much of a relief rally given that fundamentals are mixed and valuations are stretched.
Credit Suisse also sees positive impact across sectors—particularly in the internationally-exposed industrials. Even sectors under pressure—like the financials and healthcare—could see a bounce back, Credit Suisse says. After all, the financials should benefit from a more stable economic backdrop and a Fed rate increase while biotech valuations are reasonable and the broader healthcare space, including hospitals, would benefit from an expansion of Obamacare.
Meanwhile, analysts note a Trump victory would be negative for US equities, particularly considering the multinational exposure of many US-based companies, which could face new hurdles given Trump’s protectionist rhetoric.
“Whilst appearing unlikely on current polls, a Trump win could have a greater impact on equities given it could result in a significant departure from current economic policy if campaign proposals are implemented,” HSBC writes. “We see a sharp spike in uncertainty in this scenario which, history suggests, would increase volatility, weigh on valuations, and see lower capex growth.”
Currency market scenarios
The impact of policies on foreign markets is also being closely watched. In particular, emerging markets are in focus, with analysts predicting weakness under a Trump victory. This has already come into view via the Mexican peso (MXN) weakness.
“The MXN would be the swiftest to capitalize as the currency with the highest correlation with risk appetite and also because of its vulnerability to some of Trump’s policy proposals which would be avoided,” according to HSBC.
The all-important US dollar should see relative strength on improving fundamentals and modest rate hikes under a Clinton presidency, according to HSBC. Conversely, they see relative weakness for the greenbacks after a Trump win given increased uncertainty.
Commodity market scenarios
One bullish asset class for Trump? Gold.
“Growth in protectionist and nativist or populist policies are often brought on by economic and social distress and may signal a lack of confidence in government policies and traditional institutions,” according to HSBC. “As a perceived ‘safe-haven’ and flight-to-quality asset, the demand for gold is often stimulated by the same factors that fan protectionist and populist sentiment. The negative impact on global trade that may result from a Trump win would also strongly promote gold demand.”
Plus, tax policies revolving around federal tax cuts and spending increases on the military and domestic infrastructure also are bullish for gold, the analysts say, as the federal deficit would increase by $2.6 trillion to $3.9 trillion over ten years, even when factoring in economic growth.
“Higher deficit spending and budget deficits are associated with higher gold prices,” HSBC says.
And lastly, higher geopolitical risk—sparked by Trump comments around reviewing decades-old US political and military alliances along with discussion of the use of nuclear weapons—could be another reason for gold to increase.
While Clinton has become more protectionist and less free trade oriented—withdrawing support for the Trans Pacific Partnership and advocating renegotiating parts of NAFTA—she is not expected to have as significant an impact on gold as Trump. This is particularly true given her revenue-neutral strategy to tackle increased spending, with less of an increase on the deficit.
The impact on oil and the energy sector is less certain. While Clinton has embraced renewable energy and Trump has advocated less regulation, global supply and international relations have dominated overall prices more significantly, according to analysts.
One thing’s for sure: Until there is increased certainty after the election, volatility is likely to remain the key focus.
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