At its annual smartphone event in September, Apple appeared to be poised to launch its first 5G-capable iPhone — what is seen as its most important iPhone ever. But with the coronavirus outbreak scrambling global markets, China’s supply chains still dealing with issues, and millions out of work, the chances of Apple launching that phone on time are increasingly slim.
According to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, there’s just a 10% to 15% chance Apple (AAPL) will launch its phone in September. Meanwhile, an article in Nikkei Asian Review recently reported that Apple is considering delaying the launch due to the coronavirus.
“See I think, they get one shot at this,” Ives told Yahoo Finance.
“If they release a 5G phone with supply chain issues, into a tepid response from a consumer environment, where they are still focused on their jobs, groceries, and just more of a lockdown-type state, that would be, in our opinion, a disastrous environment to launch a phone into.”
Little chance of Apple launching in September
As Ives sees it, the 5G iPhone will be Apple’s most important launch to date, with some 350 million of Apple’s install base of 925 million iPhones worldwide due for an upgrade.
Couple that with the fact that this will be Apple’s first 5G device — a wireless connectivity standard that has been hyped to near godlike status — and the tech giant is staring down an enormous sales opportunity, otherwise known as a supercycle.
But launching such a device in September, when there is still the very real possibility that temporary hospitals will still be set up in major cities around the world, and millions will still be out of work, could be a public relations nightmare.
“To launch it into an environment like that, I think that would go against the typical D.N.A. of Tim Cook and Cupertino,” Ives said. “I mean, they are very highly emotionally intelligent people. And I think the last thing they are going to do is kind of rush this.”
It’s not just Ives who predicts the next iPhone launch will be delayed. According to the Nikkei Asian Review, citing unnamed internal sources, Apple has had discussions about holding off on the phone’s debut due to, among other things, supply chain constraints caused by lockdowns in various countries.
What’s more, the article states, Apple personnel are concerned about what consumer demand would be like if it launches the phone in the current environment.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Apple will, in fact, delay its iPhone launch. Bank of America (BAC) analyst Wamsi Mohan, for instance, is still modeling for a launch in Q3, though even he admits it’s possible the phone won’t hit the market in September.
A missed launch isn’t a negative
But holding off on launching the phone doesn’t necessarily spell disaster for Apple’s sales. In fact, according to Ives, the company could still see impressive performance even if it launches the phone during the holiday season, rather than its typical time frame, even though it would cut about 3 months off of the company’s normal iPhone sales cycle.
Moreover, as Mohan acknowledged, “There should be some pent-up demand as the coronavirus fades and customers are able to get to the stores.”
In truth, iPhones launched in September only account for a small amount of those sold in Q3. The largest chunk of Apple’s sales come in Q4, right around the holidays. And while the company will certainly miss out on a few months of availability to consumers, plenty of consumers will still flock to stores for the latest device.
So while chances appear to be slim that Apple will launch its hotly anticipated 5G iPhone on time, the company should still see huge sales when the device finally does hit store shelves. Whenever that is.
More from Dan:
Why Amazon could emerge from the coronavirus pandemic ‘strongest,’ according to a big-tech critic
Microsoft renaming Office 365 to Microsoft 365, bringing Teams to everyone
The top 5 video chat apps to get your through the coronavirus lockdowns
Got a tip? Email Daniel Howley at [email protected] or [email protected], and follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.
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